COBECOS Costs and Benefits of Control Strategies WP-8 SIMULATIONS

Planning Start period: month 21 - October 2008 Start period: month 21 - October 2008 End period: month 26 - March 2009 End period: month 26 - March 2009 Deliverables: D8 - An extensive report describing (i) the empirical enforcement model, (ii) the simulation outcomes and (iii) answers to particular questions for each fishery. Deliverables: D8 - An extensive report describing (i) the empirical enforcement model, (ii) the simulation outcomes and (iii) answers to particular questions for each fishery. Expected results: Expected results: Month 26. A set of case study reports containing the above results Month 26. A set of case study reports containing the above results Month 27. A report containing the individual case study outcomes appropriately cross-referenced with an extensive introduction summarizing the main outcomes and their basic pattern or lack thereof. Month 27. A report containing the individual case study outcomes appropriately cross-referenced with an extensive introduction summarizing the main outcomes and their basic pattern or lack thereof. First draft: January 2009 (before the progress meeting 5) First draft: January 2009 (before the progress meeting 5)

Objectives of simulations Obtain estimates of unobserved variables such as compliance and compliance/non-compliance benefits in the past. Obtain estimates of unobserved variables such as compliance and compliance/non-compliance benefits in the past. Investigate the relationships between enforcement on one hand and private and social benefits from the fishery on the other. Investigate the relationships between enforcement on one hand and private and social benefits from the fishery on the other. Answer particular questions about enforcement, compliance, fisheries benefits, stock evolution and economic and biological robustness. Answer particular questions about enforcement, compliance, fisheries benefits, stock evolution and economic and biological robustness. Answer questions concerning efficient mix of enforcement instruments and their relative intensity of application. Answer questions concerning efficient mix of enforcement instruments and their relative intensity of application.

Questions to be answered by simulations? Back-casts Back-casts What would have happened if enforcement had been carried out in a different way? What would have happened if enforcement had been carried out in a different way? Forecast Forecast – What are the costs and benefits of increased enforcement intensity on each of the management tools? – What would be the cost and benefit of full compliance? – What are the impacts of increased penalties for violations of fisheries rules? – Taking enforcement into account could a different management system have achieved more benefits at a lower cost? – Are certain management systems more efficient in terms of enforcement than others? – Can the same level of compliance be reached at a lower cost with a different mix of enforcement tools?

Types of simulations Simulations can be defined by: Simulations can be defined by: What we are going to modify What we are going to modify What we are going to measure What we are going to measure What we are going to measure: What we are going to measure: Compliance Compliance Private benefit function Private benefit function Cost of enforcement Cost of enforcement Social benefit function Social benefit function Biomass by species Biomass by species

Case studies matrix Simulation type CS1CS2CS3CS4CS5CS6CS7CS8CS9 Status quo Enforcement intensity Enforcement Tools Penalties Management Measures Management Tools Each case study should fill in the table above by the end of September. A template for case study simulation report will be ready in October.

Simulation output Simulations for WP7 (Calibration)Simulations for WP8

Questions? Paolo Accadia