Workshop on Inventories and Projections of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Waste under WG 1 and 2 of the Climate Change Committee Summary of reporting on projections of GHG emissions from waste in EU Member States Anke Herold, ETC-ACC 3 May 2005

2 General Summary will not include Austria, UK and Italy as individual country presentations will be available Information on methods and parameters used for projections of waste emissions is poor for many countries. Often only the projected emissions (Belgium, Hungary, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain)

3 Czech Republic All source categories included Considers future trends in waste management, in particular landfill directive Decrease in amount of waste deposited in landfills by about 56 % by the year 2020 compared to 1999 which however corresponds to a decrease in CH4 emissions to as little as 36 kt Different scenarios on production and management of waste with increased incineration Wastewater: individual parameter used in the estimation were projected, e.g. growth in industrial production, extension of the public sewer networks and capacities of waste water treatment plants.

4 Information from national communications Denmark CH4 from landfills considered Projections consider reduced amounts of waste landfilled and increased CH4 recovery Estonia CH4 from landfills considered Projections estimate effects of national regulation of landfills, only 20% of biodegradable substances deposited in landfills in 2020

5 Information from national communications Finland CH4 from landfills considered Projections of amount of different waste types (MSW, industrial waste, sludge) being landfilled Estimation with IPCC Tier 1 method (overestimation of emissions) Assumption: reduced generation of waste, higher incineration and separation France CH4 from landfills considered Growing amounts of waste until 2006 (2.6% annual increase), amounts remain constant afterwards Estimation with FOD method From 2000 onwards 100% equipment with recovery assumed, gas collection efficiency of 80% assumed

6 Information from national communications Germany CH4 from landfills considered Projections consider national legislation in place that drastically reduced amounts of biodegradable wastes landfilled IPCC Tier 1 approach Assumption that no landfill gas will be emitted once legislation is fully implemented (reduction of CH4 from waste of 82% between 1990 and 2010) Greece Solid waste disposal and wastewater handling included Projections estimate effects of national and EU legislation on landfills IPCC Tier 1 methods were used

7 Information from national communications Latvia CH4 from landfills considered Waste amounts projected on basis of population forecasts Unmanaged landfills will no longer exist Increased CH4 recovers from landfills Slovakia Solid waste disposal and wastewater handling included Scenarios with different projected amounts of waste disposed and different assumptions on CH4 recovery Scenarios with connection to sewage system and different assumptions on gas recovery IPCC Tier 1 methods were used

8 Information from national communications Sweden CH4 from landfills considered All types of waste with a significant organic content have been considered, including household waste, sludge from municipal sewage works, pulp and paper sludge, park waste and other organic waste from industry. considers national and EU legislation in place that drastically reduced amounts of biodegradable wastes landfilled (ban on landfilling organic waste from 2005 onwards) Projections are based on the same method as inventory estimates (Tier 2) Assumption of increased CH4 recovery. For 2008 it is expected that all sites are equipped with gas collection facilities which leads to an average gas collection figure of 60%. Collection will become less efficient after 2010 as the organic content of landfilled waste declines as a consequence of the ban on landfilling organic waste. Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis were undertaken

9 Conclusions Methodologies for projections of CH4 emissions from waste are poor in many countries (at least methods used for projections in 3rd NC) Projections using tier 1 method considerably underestimate emissions in the future as emissions from previously disposed wastes are no longer included (bulk waste emissions are accounted long before the Kyoto commitment period) It is straightforward to use the Tier 2 estimation method for future years, easy to extrapolate in the future in the same way as the model extrapolates backwards. The same approach should be used for inventories and projections to ensure consistent results Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis regarding important parameters (DOC, k, DOCf etc) is useful for both inventory and projection estimation Further discussion needed on gas collection efficiency as assumptions largely differ between MS. Some countries assume that collection efficiency can not be higher than 60%, other assume 100% gas collection

10 Thank you for your attention