Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm Denis L. Balaguer José Eduardo de C. Bezerra Rodrigo C. da Silva Embraer Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making 16th- 17th October 2008

Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm 1. Introduction The aeronautical industry and the need for a prospective mindset The aeronautical industry – Commercial leadership strongly driven by the continuous innovation; – But, the products development cycles are complex, long and integrated. This leads to high uncertainties and high risks Thus, in order to mitigate the risks associated with innovation, is mandatory to deal with futures studies, with a prospective view of the future (Balaguer et al, 2007). – Probabilistic assessment of possible future worlds, or scenarios - no need to choose a single set of future market assumptions.

Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm 1. Introduction The aeronautical industry and the need for a prospective mindset Traditionally scenarios building approach: Delphi. – Long and in most cases extenuating process. Improved approach: Real-Time Delphi – RTD (Gordon and Pease, 2006). – Resembles the traditional Delphi, but using a web based environment; – Real-time feedback which drives the consensus in a more streamlined way; – More active interaction between the exercise managers and the respondents. This paper shows a case of RTD use as tool for a scenarios building exercise on an aeronautical firm. – Conceptual foundations; – Context of the application and the main pitfalls; and – Solutions developed.

Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm 2. Methodology The scenarios approach Quantitative probabilistic assessment of future scenarios (Marcial and Grumbach, 2005). – 1.Construct a model of the system to be analyzed 1.1. Identification of the variables that describes de system behavior; 1.2. Identification of single possible events that quantifies the changes through the variables. – 2. Conduct expert survey (Delphi) 2.1. Quantify the possibility of occurrence of the events; 2.2. Quantify the importance of the events to the system. – 3. Build the scenarios (by combinatory analysis). – 4. Select a scenarios set for further analysis. Scenarios question: future of the aeronautical transportation.

Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm 2. Methodology Real-Time Delphi Delphi concerning the model of the system built Consult based on a web site running on the firms intranet system with a friendly interface. – The site is programmed using the Cold Fusion language – Databases using SQL.. First phase of the Delphi. – Probability of occurrence of the events; – Importance of the events to the system; and – Self-evaluation of the experts concerning the theme of the event. Second phase of the Delphi. – Cross influence of the occurrence of each event on all others events (cross- impact matrix). In both phases: – Graph with the distribution of all the answers; – Choice to change the vote; and – Space to make comments about their votes.

Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm 2. Methodology Real-Time Delphi Detailed view of the RTD page (phase 1)

Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm 2. Methodology Real-Time Delphi Combo-box (phase 1)

Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm 2. Methodology Real-Time Delphi Explanation box (phase 1)

Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm 2. Methodology Real-Time Delphi Votes distribution chart (phase 1)

Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm 2. Methodology Real-Time Delphi Detailed view of the RTD page (phase 2)

Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm 2. Methodology Real-Time Delphi Votes distribution chart (phase 2)

Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm 3. Results Participation effectiveness The first phase of the Delphi – Participation effectiveness of 62% In the previous scenario exercise with paper forms the participation effectiveness was 46%. The second phase of the Delphi – Participation effectiveness of 43% In the previous scenario exercise with paper forms the participation effectiveness was 33%.

Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm 3. Results Convergence and discussions

Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm 4. Conclusions Scenario and Real-Time Delphi The experience of using Real-Time Delphi (RTD) in the aeronautical prospective exercise report proved fruitful. – Importance of the RTD to enable a more streamlined way to achieve the results of a Delphi process. Also some others interesting results achieved – Participation effectiveness; – Good convergence through a reasonable consensus; and, – Rich discussion environment that was created at the web page.