System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories -Focused on Real Estate, Macro-economics, and Population factors- Dr. CHOI, Hae-Ok Senior Researcher, Spatial Information Research institute, Korea Cadastral Survey Corp. ( A Paper Prepared for conference on “Land and Poverty 2015: Linking land tenure and use for shared prosperity”

System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories  Contents II. Literature Review III. Methodology IV. Status Quo of the price-volume in land VI. Summary and Discussions I. Introduction Base Run 1 2 Effect of price-volume in land by land categories 3 Effect of speculation psychology by land categories 4 Effect of cadastral workloads by land categories V. Causal Loops and Stock-Flow Models

I. Introduction Central to the new paradigm is the fact that creativity, knowledge and access to information are increasingly recognized as powerful engines driving economic growth and promoting development in a globalizing world The Korea private cadastral market steadily open in until 2017 However, well-developed public sectors should offer efficiencies of operation, providing the consumer with choice and professional services in a timely manner and at competitive process. This research also attempts to identify the price-volume in land acts as a backbone for effecting cadastral surveying workloads with system dynamics approaches which has been overlooked in former studies This research tries to suggest specific systematic management for land administration system, policy decision guidelines for developing countries System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories

II. Literature Review This research evaluated that the rapidly increase of cadastral surveying workload according to price-volume in land which is closely related with Mutjima investment under the Noh government policy from 2004 to 2008.Pros Song(2006) takes a critical stands, who stresses the positive relationships between real estate and cadastral workload. Cadastral research center(2007) reconfirm Song’s research. The cadastral workload is attracted to plan to purchase real estate, differing by regions. Former research suggests that simple relationship between price-volume in land and cadastral workload which consider each factors rather than consider all system together. Cons System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories It is the main motivation that the overestimate real estate investment drives increasing cadastral surveying workloads.

Ⅲ. Methodology System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories ③ Macro- economics ① Cadastral Workload ② Real Estate ④ Population Cadastral Workload Real Estate + Former research Overcome Former Research

System Dynamics (Powersim Program)-complex theory Methodology for Studying and Managing Complex Feedback System A chain of Causes and Effects Used in… Corporate Planning and Policy Design Public Management and Policy Energy and the Environment Dynamic Decision Making Complex Nonlinear Dynamics Causal Loop Stock-flow Diagram System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories Ⅲ. Methodology

The Sequence of the research was as follows: ① identify and examine dynamics relationship between price-volume in land and cadastral workloads, ② to analyze implied meaning of simulated values and examines effectiveness of speculative bubbles, ③ to characterize the dynamic relationships for evaluating variables efficiency, ④ to support insufficient idea from simulation conducting questionnaire survey. System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories ③ Macro-economics ① Cadastral Workload ② Real Estate ④ Population Ⅲ. Methodology

DB CL Res ults Que stion aire s Literature review Data Base Major variables Casual loop(CL) Total Casual loop Correlations, Multilevel experiment Stock-flow diagram Based on simulation results, Questionnaires survey Data Base Simulation Results Cadastral workloads by land categories Price-volume in land by land categories Speculative bubbles experiments Stock-flow diagramTotal Casual LoopMajor Variables Questionnaires Survey Real Estate Macro-economics Population Why it is happen the gap between data and simulation result? Macro- economics Population Literature Review Research Method Real estate

The price-volume in land in Korea from 2000 to 2011 System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories Ⅳ. Status Quo of the price-volume in land

Causal Loops of the Creative Industry Ⅴ. Causal Loops and Stock-Flow Models Ⅴ. Causal Loops and Stock-Flow Models System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories

Figure 3. Stock-Flow Diagram Population Real-estate Macro-economics

VI. Simulation results 1. Base Run System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories The variation rate of price-volume in landGDP per person The variation rate of interest rateThe rate of inflation , , , ,000 per yr 답대임야전기타 토지거래변화량

2. Effect of price-volume in land by land categories System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories Simulation result of price-volume in land by land categories ,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 Paddy field SitingForestFieldETC. Price-volume in land

3. Effect of speculation psychology by land categories 5%, 10%, 15% Experiment s what if speculation psychology 5%, 10%, 15% System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories 5% 10% 15% ,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 Paddy Filed SitingForestFieldETC. Land Transaction Volume ,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 Paddy Field SitingForestFieldETC. Land Transaction Volume ,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 Paddy Field SitingForestFieldETC. Land Transaction Volume ,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 Paddy Field SitingForestFieldETC. Land Transaction Volume 0%

4. Cadastral workload gaps between simulation results and real data System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories Cadastral survey workload , ,000 Simulation resultActual result

6. Questionnaires survey Overview of Questionnaires survey ③ Macro- economics ① Cadastral Workload ② Real Estate ④ Population System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories VII. Questionnaires Survey male

Why happen the gap between simulation result and real data? Economic depression -> new real estate policy -> indiscriminate investment -> population decreases System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories

VIII. Summary and Discussions Key Research Objective  This research examines relationship between price-volume in land and cadastral workloads by system dynamics Tentative Results  Price-volume in land is affected by government real estate policies over time.  For the first half of research period, this research finds that land category put forth the impacts.  These trends, however, are reversed in the long term: overall, price-volume in land absolutely depends on macroeconomics especially GDP per person. System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories

Suggestions  Support timely LAS management in developing countries  Simulation results as references to land policy and strategy ③ Macro- economics ① Workload ② Real Estate ④ Population + Stock-flow diagram Simulation Policy and strategy making System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories

Thank you! Contact Information Dr. CHOI, Haeok – KOH, Munsung –