Global Challenges Sustainable Engineering and International Development AE/CE/EE/ME 388x

Road Map Summary of Global Challenges Summary of Global Challenges IPAT Equation IPAT Equation Future Trends Future Trends –Population Dynamics Factor Four; Factor 10 Factor Four; Factor 10

Turn to you neighbor 1. Introduce yourselves 2. Why did you take this class? 3. What do you think is the biggest global challenge? Why?

Keep in Mind: Global challenges and development issues are: Global challenges and development issues are: –Complex –Controversial –Multi-disciplinary Stay engaged and objective Stay engaged and objective Treat other points of view with respect Treat other points of view with respect Question assumptions Question assumptions

Global Challenges Water quality and availability Water quality and availability Loss of Biodiversity Loss of Biodiversity Energy Use, Consequences, and Supply Energy Use, Consequences, and Supply Population Population Poverty Poverty Food Supply and Production Food Supply and Production

Water quality and availability “Water-related problems have been recognized as the most immediate and serious threat to humankind.” “Water-related problems have been recognized as the most immediate and serious threat to humankind.” Klaus Topfer UN Environment Program (UNEP, 2002)

Global Challenges Fresh water Fresh water –Half the world’s rivers are seriously depleted and polluted. –Water shortages 80 Countries; 40% of world’s population in mid-1990’s 80 Countries; 40% of world’s population in mid-1990’s –No access to safe drinking water 1.1 billion people 1.1 billion people –No access to improve sanitation facilities 2.4 billion people 2.4 billion people (UNEP, 2002)

Global Challenges Biodiversity Biodiversity –24% of mammals and 12% of bird species currently regarded as globally threatened –Loss and degredation of habitat Agricultural development (1.2 million km 2 in past 30 years) Agricultural development (1.2 million km 2 in past 30 years) Logging Logging Dam construction Dam construction Mining Mining Urban development Urban development (UNEP, 2002)

World and US Energy Use (1998) Fuel Source Percent of total world use Percent of total United States use Petroleum Coal Natural Gas Biomass Hydropower Nuclear Solar, Wind Geothermal Total (Dorf, 2001)

Energy Consequences CO 2 concentrations CO 2 concentrations –367 ppmv –25% higher than 150 years ago CO 2 emissions CO 2 emissions –7,000 million metric tons carbon in 2002

Historic CO 2 Concentration (Neftel et al., 1994)

Global CO 2 Emissions (1751 to 2002) (Marland et al., 2005)

Global Per capita CO 2 Emissions (1751 to 2002) (Marland et al., 2005)

Global Mean Temperatures (Policymaker’s Summary, 1990)

Energy Supply “The supply of oil in the ground is not infinite. Someday, annual world crude oil production has to reach a peak and start to decline. It is my opinion that the peak will occur in late 2005 or in the first few months of I nominate Thanksgiving Day, November 24, 2005, as World Oil Peak Day. There is a reason for selecting Thanksgiving. We can pause and give thanks for the years from 1901 to 2005 when abundant oil and natural gas fueled enormous changes in our society. At the same time, we have to face up to reality: World oil production is going to decline, slowly at first and then more rapidly.” Kenneth S. Deffeyes, 2005 Beyond Oil: The view from Hubbert’s Peak

One prediction of peak oil production (copyright, Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas)

Global Challenges World Population World Population –Today: 6.5 billion –2050: 9.1 billion estimated –Population in developed countries virtually unchanged between 2005 and 2050, at about 1.2 billion –Population of the 50 least developed countries is projected to more than double, passing from 0.8 billion in 2005 to 1.7 billion in 2050 –In , world fertility level at 2.65 children per woman, about half the level it had in World Population Prospects The 2004 Revision US Population Division

Population of the world, , by projection variants

Mainly Urban Population Increases

Global Challenges Poverty Poverty –2.8 billion people live on less than $2 a day –1.2 billion people less than $1 a day Marginal subsistence Marginal subsistence –11 million children die annually of preventable causes nutrition nutrition sanitation sanitation maternal health and education maternal health and education (UNDP, 2002)

Global Challenges Food Supply and Production Food Supply and Production –Growing population requires growing food supply –Increasing affluence leads populations to: Higher quantities of food. Higher quantities of food. Higher food quality Higher food quality –“up the food chain” –More meats, fats, dairy products

Food Production System Food Production = Land area * Crop Yield*Efficiencies (Production, Processing, Distribution) Food Production = Land area * Crop Yield*Efficiencies (Production, Processing, Distribution) Crop Yield = f(Genetics, Nutrients, Water, Energy, Management,Technology) Crop Yield = f(Genetics, Nutrients, Water, Energy, Management,Technology) Food Consumption = Population * diet Food Consumption = Population * diet

Undernourished Population ( )

Food Challenges Land availability Land availability

Global Challenges Degraded Soils: Degraded Soils: –2 billion ha soil degraded 15% of earth’s land 15% of earth’s land Area larger than US and Mexico combined Area larger than US and Mexico combined –305 million ha soil extremely degraded Cannot be restored Cannot be restored (UNEP, 2002)

Global Challenges Can yield increases continue? Can yield increases continue?

Global Challenges Can yield increases continue? Can yield increases continue?

Impact of Cities on World Environment "People living in San Francisco or London may look at these images of deforestation or melting Arctic ice, and wonder what it has to do with them. That these changes are the result of other people's lifestyles and consumption habits hundreds and thousands of kilometres away. But they would be wrong." Cities pull in huge amounts of resources including water, food, timber, metals and people. They export large amounts of wastes including household and industrial wastes, wastewater and the gases linked with global warming. Thus their impacts stretch beyond their physical borders affecting countries, regions and the planet as a whole." Klaus Toepfer, UNEP's Executive Director at "One Planet Many People" Atlas Launch World Environment Day June, 2005

IPAT Equation Environmental Impact = Population x GDP/person x environmental impact/GDP Environmental Impact = Population x GDP/person x environmental impact/GDP Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology Factor Four and Factor Ten: Factor Four and Factor Ten: Idea: Idea: –Population will probably increase by 1.5 to 2 times over the next 50 years. –Affluence will probably increase by 3 to 5 times. –To maintain a constant Impact, the Technology term must decrease by a factor between 4 and 10.

Next Class Local view of these how global challenges effect real people. Local view of these how global challenges effect real people.

Views of the World Tragedy of the Commons Tragedy of the Commons

Views of the World Industrial organisms and Industrial Ecology Industrial organisms and Industrial Ecology

Sustainability

Means to Sustainability Industrial Ecology Industrial Ecology Design for Environment Design for Environment Dematerialization Dematerialization New Technological Developments New Technological Developments –Renewable energy –Information and communications technology –Biotechnology –Nanotechnology

(UNEP, 2002)