Chronic Risk of Global Climate Change to Urban Coasts and Economies Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ; November 15 & 16, 2007 Session 4: Economics and Infrastructure, Friday, 16 November 2007, 11: :30 Climate Change: Challenge to Urban Planning, Infrastructure & Sustainability - The New York Example" The New York Example" Klaus H. Jacob Klaus H. Jacob Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University Principal Collaborators: George Deodatis, Columbia University, Dept. Civil Engineering & Engineering Mechanics Dan O’Brien, New York State Emergency Management Office, GIS Unit

2100

=> more air conditioning, heat strokes, energy, CO2, more warming ! No. of days >90ºF (32ºC) No. of days >100ºF (38ºC)

0ºC16ºC32ºC Daily Electric Energy Load (gigawatt-hours) in NY State, vs. Daily-Average Temperature. Solid Points=1966; Open Points=1997 => Peak Load Issues.

Multiplier for Number of Events per Year Relative to Average or >5 cm Many of these heavy rains occur during Nor’easters or Hurricanes

1950 Nor’easter 1992 Nor’easter

GIS-based Risk Assessment Tool ‘HAZUS - MH’ (Hazards in the United States for Multi Hazards: Earthquakes, Wind, Flood). Risk = Sum (Hazard x Assets x Vulnerability ) $ / year or event over Region probability per time $ value 0 < V < 1 Risk Expected Losses for either a scenario event ($) or in terms of probabilistic annual losses ($/year) or in terms of probabilistic annual losses ($/year) Hazards Probability per unit time of exceeding a certainHazards Probability per unit time of exceeding a certain wind speed or flood height (P=1 for scenario event) AssetsReplacement Value in Dollars for Buildings or Infrastructure, (or $ / live !)AssetsReplacement Value in Dollars for Buildings or Infrastructure, (or $ / live !) Vulnerability Dimensionless Value between 0 and 1. It is theVulnerability Dimensionless Value between 0 and 1. It is the Fraction of Replacement Value of a Given Asset, Given the Hazard Level it is exposed to. Also has a Built-in Economic Model for Damage-Related, Indirect Losses.

NYSEMO HAZUS-MH HURRICANE MODELING: 72 Scenarios 12 tracks x 2 forward speeds x 3 SS categories = 72 Scenarios Worst case: Category 3 (4 not modeled), Slow Moving (25 mph)

NOAA SLOSH MODEL: Surge Heights Translated into Inundated Areas by Dan O’Brien, NYSEMO

Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3 $ 0.35 Trillion HAZUS-MH-Modeled Building-Related Total Economic Losses for 72 Hurricane Scenarios $ 400 Billion $ 400 Billion $ 350 Billion $ 350 Billion $ 300 Billion $ 300 Billion $ 250 Billion $ 250 Billion $ 200 Billion $ 200 Billion $ 150 Billion $ 150 Billion $ 100 Billion $ 100 Billion $ 50 Billion $ 50 Billion $ 0 Billion $ 0 Billion

HAZUS-MH Modeled Total Debris(Tons) for 72 Hurricane Scenarios Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3

Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3

The estimated worst case Cat 3 scenario from a wind damage perspective is based on the above track with a relatively slow forward speed (25 mph). While this slow forward speed increases wind damage levels it has the opposite affect on storm surge levels. The faster the forward speed, the greater the surge heights and associated inundation area. Estimated Worst Case Losses to New York State Coastal Counties: - - $350 Billion Wind Related Damages to Buildings Million Displaced Households (wind only) Million Tons of Debris (wind only) ,850 Population Residing in Storm Surge Inundation Area

Original Loss Estimates from MEC Study, 2003

CAT 1 CAT 2 CAT 3 CAT 4

CAT1=12.3; CAT2=18.1ft CAT3=24.9; CAT4=31.3 ft CAT1=7.80; CAT2=11.8 ft CAT3=16.6; CAT4=22.7 ft

(3m)

Sea Level Rise Makes a Bad Situation Worse ! 1 FT 2 FT 3 FT

Calendar Year Future Return Period (in Years) for what is now 100-Year Flood Reduction in Return Period of the 100-Year Flood due to Sea Level Rise Only (Constant Storm Frequency).

Risk Management Tools: Minimizing the Risk via Risk Mitigation or Adaptation Measures (Let’s use the Risk Equation and GIS-based Models!) : RiskHazard x Assets Risk = Sum (Hazard x Assets x Vulnerability) |________________| Mitig.:Reduce GW + SLR Hazards Mitig.: Reduce GW + SLR Hazards Adapt.: Land Use Planning & Zoning, Considerate Placements of new Assets, Considerate Placements of new Assets, Relocation of Essential Assets. Relocation of Essential Assets. Levees & Dams (?). Levees & Dams (?). Equity Issues. Equity Issues. RiskAssets x Vulnerability or by Risk = Sum (Hazard x Assets x Vulnerability ) |______________________| Good Engineering, Construction Quality-Control, Codes and Code Enforcement, Retrofitting, Codes and Code Enforcement, Retrofitting, Raising Assets in Place Raising Assets in Place

World Trade Center Site Redevelopment “Bathtub”

Structural “Solution”: 3 or 4 Barriers London’s Thames Barriers

ft Contribution to SLR from Greenland Ice Sheet As a function of average temperature increase

(meters)

Conclusions & Response Options: Conclusions & Response Options: 1) CC, Global Warming & Sea Level Rise, 1) CC, Global Warming & Sea Level Rise, Extreme Events =>Greater Hazards: Extreme Events =>Greater Hazards: More Frequent Stronger Storm Surges and Floods along Urban Coasts & Tidal Estuaries. More Days with Extreme Precipitation: More Street and Infrastructure Flooding, above and below Ground. More Droughts: Water Shortages & Urban Brush Fire Hazards. More Hot Days: Peak Energy Demand, Heat Fatalities

Conclusions & Response Options (contin.): Conclusions & Response Options (contin.): 2) Higher, More Frequent Losses 3) Insurance / Disaster Relief Aid (US) Commercial Wind InsuranceCommercial Wind Insurance Federal Flood InsuranceFederal Flood Insurance More expensive - less availableMore expensive - less available Higher Deductibles, Lower “Ceilings”Higher Deductibles, Lower “Ceilings” Tighter Federal Disaster Relief Aid to Local Governments, Businesses & Citizens.Tighter Federal Disaster Relief Aid to Local Governments, Businesses & Citizens.

Conclusions & Response Options (contin.): : 4) Adaptation Measures/Options: 4) Adaptation Measures/Options: Short-term: Early Warnings, EvacuationShort-term: Early Warnings, Evacuation Emergency & Operational PreparednessEmergency & Operational Preparedness Assess & Avoid Growing Hazard Zones, Retreat from Low Coastal & River Shore Locations and Inland River Flood ZonesAssess & Avoid Growing Hazard Zones, Retreat from Low Coastal & River Shore Locations and Inland River Flood Zones Restore and Preserve Wetland AreasRestore and Preserve Wetland Areas Raising & Hardening (?) Structures (Barriers??)Raising & Hardening (?) Structures (Barriers??) Increase Peak Capacity (Road Drainage / Storm Sewer / Treatment Plants / Water Supply )Increase Peak Capacity (Road Drainage / Storm Sewer / Treatment Plants / Water Supply ) ‘Flexible’ / Adaptable Designs‘Flexible’ / Adaptable Designs

Conclusions & Response Options (contin.): 5) SMART POLICIES ……. 5) SMART POLICIES ……. Capital Investments into Climate- Adaptive Infrastructure and Adaptive Landuse are Part of a Smart Growth Path... Cities can make these Investments to Achieve Short-term Gains for Today’s Communities, But also Leave in Place a Better Legacy for the Future.

Thank You !