1st meeting ECDS Scientific Advisory Board and 10th meeting ECDS Board Climate change data and information needs and relevant EEA activities André Jol European Environment Agency

Global Framework for Climate Services (WMO GFCS) US, NOAA prototype Japan, other countries GMES is key European contribution to GEO/GEOS What are climate services globally? Source: WMO, NOAA,

GCOS supports UNFCCC and GFCS ECVs, both space and in situ monitoring Additional costs: 2.5 billion USD/yr (1.0 for satellite data and 1.5 for in situ and national actions) Global sustained funding for monitoring needed (in situ and satellite) GMES to build on GCOS ECVs and quality procedures What are GMES priorities for ECVs? GMES and GCOS Source: Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC (2010 Update), GCOS-138

Europe 2020 strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth:strengthen our economies' resilience to climate risks Climate change adaptation (Mainstreaming in EU policies, Clearinghouse on adaptation by March 2012, EU strategy by 2013) …actors whose main tasks are not directly concerned with mitigation of, or adaptation to, climate change also work to attain these goals Environmental policies: Water Framework Directive and Floods Directive Nature protection directives, policies to halt biodiversity loss Marine Strategy Framework Directive; Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) Sectoral, cross-cutting: maritime, agriculture; forestry; human health; disaster risk reduction; infrastructure e.g. energy, transport (regional policies); urban areas GMES climate service Key relevant EU policy processes

Summary of (EEA) user requirements Long series of processed observations (reanalysis), including daily data to capture extreme events High spatial resolution for gridded observations and projections (25 km or less, to allow analysis for river catchments, sea basins, bio-geographic regions) Pan-European coverage Consistency (time, space and between variables) Quality (fit for purpose) Easily accessible and transparent products and services for different users (experts, general public) Following SEIS principles and INSPIRE Directive requirements

GMES Climate Service expert group On 9 th November 2010, the EU Regulation (911/2010) on the European Earth monitoring programme (GMES) and its Initial Operations ( ) have come into force With this regulation GMES has become operational The service component of GMES shall comprise i.a: Access to information for CC monitoring in support of mitigation and adaptation policies November 2010: GMES CC expert group April 2011: Consultation with major European (Climate-related) Institutions Report GMES Climate Service open for discussion WMO-GFCS defines Climate Service as Climate Information prepared and delivered to meet users needs

User needs and Climate Quality (1) GMES Climate service should support (Climate policy) users at European and National level European level: EC DG-CLIMA => White paper (2009): The Clearing House Mechanism will rely on GMES information concerning climate change impact, vulnerability and best practices on adaptation. Both Observations and Model results National level: Public Institutions, like National Meteorological Services GMES Climate service will have to complement and interact with existing services and activities

The ambition of the GMES Climate Service must be to provide information products meeting the three GCOS goals: Monitoring the climate system Detecting and attributing climate change Assessing impacts of, and supporting adaptation to, climate variability and change This will be achieved through the 50 GCOS Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) as endorsed by WMO, CEOS, COP, and UNFCCC All ECVs are required to support the work of the UNFCCC and the IPCC All ECVs are technically and economically feasible for systematic observation International exchange of these variables is required for both current and historical observations User needs and Climate Quality (2)

Products and tools for monitoring policies Climate monitoring and data integration Focus on GCOS ECVs Recovery, lodging, digitally archiving, homogenization Delivering of consistent data sets of observational data For climate model initialisation for seasonal and decadal predictions For re-analysis and attribution Earth system re-analysis Including interactions between Atmosphere – Ocean – Land -Ice/Snow - Hydrological Cycle – Dynamical vegetation Data assimilation with integrated observational data Portal for climate impact indicators Improve historical records of impact indicators Conversion into gridded data sets covering sparse regions Attribution service Natural climate variability versus human-induced effects Linking Desaster Risk Reduction to CC Relies on climate modelling capabilities

A Climate Service Flow Chart Observations -Satellite -In Situ ESA – CCI EUMETSAT – SAF Other archives Earth System Model - Atmosphere - Ocean - Land - Ice Snow - Hydro Cycle Re-analysis Data Assimilation ECVs Atm/Ocean/Land/… - Interpolation - Mapping All variables Atm/Ocean/Land/… - ECVs - Many others (Atm 80 vars) Prognostic Climate All variables Atm/Ocean/Land/… - Hind Cast Impact Indicators Service ECVs time series All variables, gridded, Z-levels, hourly, re-analysis period Indicators Example: T2, SST, YOLL, … All variables, gridded, Z-levels, hourly, prognostic period Attribution Service Infrastructure Post ProcessingData Base User inputInfra/User GMES

The Helsinki Questions (conference June 2012) How to integrate research needs in the evolving service and which are priorities – FP7/8? Where to invest in supercomputing and how to integrate existing capacities? How to support Climate prediction/projection/scenario – facilitate access to existing activities? Will it be possible to address the huge challenge of an attribution service and how to interface with users? Impact indicator service – direct generation and/or supporting tools? How to implement links between GMES Climate Service and GFCS? Expectations regarding data policy? Roadmap for GMES Climate Service? EURO4M (coordinator KNMI-NL; 9 partners; 04/2010 – 03/2014 ) ERA-CLIM (coordinator ECMWF-UK; 10 partners) MONARCH-A (coordinator NERSC-NO; 8 partners) CARBONES (coordinator Noveltis-FR; 14 partners) «Full and open access to information produced by GMES services and data collected through GMES infrastructure, subject to relevant international agreements, security restrictions and licensing conditions, including registration and acceptance of user licences »

Helps users aimed at developing climate change adaptation policies and actions to access and share information Launch 23 March 2012 (Connie Hedegaard, EEA) EEA to manage/maintain ETC CCA supports Key challenge: quality assurance/control of information European Climate Adaptation Platform (CLIMATE-ADAPT) See:

Potential link of GMES data within (CLIMATE-ADAPT) DG CLIMA manages, EEA+JRC support Contractor up to March 2012, EEA maintains afterwards Countries and others tested/commented on prototypes

2012 report on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation Update/extension of 2008 report Two parallel reports in 2012 Indicator-based (climate system; impacts of climate change; vulnerabilities/risks) Adaptation assessment (EU, national, sectoral) Objectives indicator report Present past and projected climate change and impacts through (about 40) indicators with communication of uncertainties Identify sectors and regions most vulnerable/at risk Increase awareness of need for adaptation actions Highlight gaps in monitoring, data, scenarios

Europes key past and projected impacts and risks (SOER2010), to be updated/extended for CC IVA 2012 report

16 Objectives, planning, content cities and adaptation report Objectives: To support stakeholders involved in climate change adaptation and urban development To support policy development and decision-making across all spatial levels (EU, national, regional, local) (multilevel governance) Planning: Publication: May 2012 Content:

Initial in-situ requirements Core services (FP7 project Jan 2010 – Dec 2012, climate change not included) GISC GMES in-situ coordination Land monitoringAtmosphere monitoringOcean monitoringEmergency response © MyShotz.com/Fotolia Source:

Partnerships: Purpose and approach To gain commitment from national authorities to secure some priority areas of the in-situ capacity needed International coordinating bodies to explore their potential contribution for sustainable provision of in situ Countries to clarify capacities, identify gaps and constraints and agree on commitment

Dialogue with the European coordinating bodies and other stakeholders Country visits 2011: Norway, France, UK, Italy, Czech Republic, Finland, Denmark; more planned in 2012 Agreements: Signed with EuroGeoSurveys and EuroGeographics Under negotiation with EUMETNET and ECMWF Dialogue with Research projects: NORS, Jerico, EuroArgo, Ferrybox, etc Cooperation with international organisations Photo: Pharma-alliance.com

In-situ requirements criticality breakdown For more information: In-situ requirements reportIn-situ requirements report

Setup Operational Data Access Coordination Valuation of in-situ contribution (all GMES services) – annual costs in ,440 per annum For more information: Cost valuation report Foreseen EU contribution for operational GMES in-situ: 30 – 110 M

In-situ requirements for Land Cover GIO - land

Delegated tasks to the EEA A. GMES land monitoring service: Pan-European Continental Component Providing land cover and land cover change information at Pan-European scale Production of 5 thematic high resolution layers B. GMES land monitoring service: Local Component Providing very High Resolution information on specific areas of interest at European level (as defined in GMES annual work programmes) C. Dissemination + archiving + cataloguing According to Dissemination Plan

GISC GIO land (European/local) coordination User forum GMES Committee GMES NFP Working Group ETC (European Topic Centres) (air, marine, land) collaboration Summary of EEA involvement in GMES

European Environment Agency

Scientifically sound monitoring data, reanalysis and indicators (space, in- situ) High resolution climate scenarios at right scales with proper communication of uncertainties Analysis of vulnerabilities, risks and opportunities using other scenarios (socio-economic, demographic, land use, ecosystems) Implementation and mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into other policy areas and actions Analysis of effectiveness of adaptation strategies and actions Sharing and giving access to data and information through national platforms and EU adaptation portal (CLIMATE-ADAPT) Future GMES climate service will be important for policymakers, other users Conclusions on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation