Studying Poverty, Agricultural Risks, and Coping Strategies Presentation at the BMGF Grantee Meeting

Presentation outline 1. Motivation 2. Activities – Exploratory analysis – Correlation/Association – Causal analysis/impact evaluations 3. Findings 4. Next steps

1. Motivation Agricultural risks are a major constraint on productivity increases, especially in marginal environments The constraints are higher with changing climate, lack of market access, and underdeveloped market instruments

1.1 Major research questions: -How do farmers and cultivators cope with different environmental risks? -What role do institutions play in coping strategies? -What kinds of external interventions can enhance local capacities to cope with risks?

1.2 investigation strategy Code information in existing studies of risks and coping strategies using consistent, conceptual categories for livelihood strategies, environmental risks, coping strategies, and institutions Examine patterns of relationships among risks, coping strategies, institutions, conditional on livelihood strategies Use findings to pilot field research on the diversity of risks and coping strategies

2. Major activities Development of basic conceptual categories Coding of information in preexisting cases Analysis of patterns in data Field data pilot launched Field experiment planned for 2014

2.1 Major conceptual categories Risk categories Droughts Ecological change Flooding Immigration Erratic Rains Market change Storms Violent conflict Disease Socio-economic Pests inequality Heat Waves Coping strategies categories Diversification Pooling Mobility Storage Market exchange Institution categories Public Civic Private

3. Findings What is the most common observed pattern of relationships among adaptations and institutions?

Coping measures consistent over different risks – adaptation patterns consistent across shocks Risk categories Droughts Ecological change Flooding Immigration Erratic Rains Market change Storms Violent conflict Disease Socio-economic Pests inequality Heat Waves

Adaptation Trends?

How are patterns of relationships among adaptations and institutions structured by livelihood practices?

What is the relationship between institutions and the types of adaptation strategies?

Pattern between adaptation practices and biodiversity?

Pattern between adaptation practices and sustainability?

Pattern between adaptation practices and equity?

Relationships between adaptation practices & biodiversity, equity and sustainability: Outcomes: biodiversity, equity, sustainability Predictors: coping mechanisms, institutions, history of adaptation practices, livelihood practices, formality of institutional links and history of institutional relationships Method: Logistic regression Exploratory Analysis!

Correlations btw predictors & biodiversity  Pooling associated with improved biodiversity  Formal institutional links & a longer history of institutional links associated with improved biodiversity  NGOs & Private institutions associated with improved biodiversity  Longer history of adaptation practice associated with reduced biodiversity

Correlations btw predictors & sustainability  Pooling & storage associated with improved sustainability  NGOs associated with improved sustainability  Formal institutional links associated with improved sustainability  Private institutions, exchange, and mobility associated with reduced sustainability

Correlations between predictors & equity Pooling associated with improved equity Private institutions associated with improved equity Longer history of institutional links associated with improved equity Longer history of adaptation practices associated with improved equity Exchange associated with reduced equity

4. Next steps SPARCS watershed project – HH, institution, village, commons instruments – semi arid regions of Rajasthan, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh – Foundation for Ecological Security Climate change & adaptation field experiment – HH, social network, behavioural games, village instruments – semi arid regions of Rajasthan, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh – Foundation for Ecological Security

THANK YOU! Q & A