How Early Is Early? Early Initiation of Risk Behaviors among Inner City Adolescents and Its Impact on Later Behavioral Trajectories John M. Bolland Bradley.

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Presentation transcript:

How Early Is Early? Early Initiation of Risk Behaviors among Inner City Adolescents and Its Impact on Later Behavioral Trajectories John M. Bolland Bradley E. Lian

Support 1.NICHD (HD 30060) 2.CSAT/SAMHSA (TI 13340) 3.NIDA (DA ) 4.CDC (CE ) 5.Mobile, Alabama Housing Board 6.City of Mobile, Alabama 7.City of Prichard, Alabama

Mobile Youth Survey –Begun in 1998; 11 waves of data –Low income, African American neighborhoods 1990 poverty rate = 73% 1990 median household income = $5,190 –Multiple cohort, longitudinal study of adolescent risk –Adolescents aged

MYS Data N = 7,085 18,360 total interviews 1,774 – 2,635 annual interviews 1,187 respondents with 5+ waves of data Response rate = Followup rate =.82

The Mobile Youth Survey: Findings Prevalence × Age Risk BehaviorRelative RiskAgePeriod Data Alcohol consumption lifetime Add Health Alcohol consumption days YRBS Marijuana use lifetime Add Health Marijuana use days YRBS Sexual intercourse lifetime Add Health Sexual intercourse days YRBS

The Mobile Youth Survey: Findings Prevalence × Age Risk BehaviorRelative RiskAgePeriod Data Alcohol consumption lifetime Add Health Alcohol consumption days YRBS Marijuana use lifetime Add Health Marijuana use days YRBS Sexual intercourse lifetime Add Health Sexual intercourse days YRBS Weapon carrying days YRBS Gun carrying days YRBS Pulling a weapon lifetime Add Health Weapon use lifetime Add Health

MYS Data: Developmental and Behavioral Trajectories Y ij = [β 00 + β 10 age ij ] + [μ 0j + μ 1j age ij + r ij ] Where μ 0j ≈ N(0, τ ), r ij ≈ N(0, σ 2 )

MYS Data: Developmental and Behavioral Trajectories Y ij = [β 00 + β 10 age ij ] + [μ 0j + μ 1j age ij + r ij ] Y ij = [β 00 + β 10 age ij + β 01 ic ij + β 11 (ic ij × age ij )] + [μ 0j + μ 1j age ij + r ij ] Where μ 0j ≈ N(0, τ ), r ij ≈ N(0, σ 2 )

Alcohol Use b se Intercept Age (lin) Age (quad) Gender Age (lin) × Gender Age (quad) × Gender

Alcohol Use: Frequency and Recency

Household Instability: Mother Mother Figure Birth Mother67.0% % Grandmother12.0% % No One 1.4% - 3.2% Annual Change25.0% – 34.8%

Household Instability: Father Father Figure Biological Father44.8% % Stepfather14.4% % Grandfather 6.7% - 8.5% No One10.9% % Annual Change43.9% – 49.8%

Alcohol Use b se No father figure (NFF) Early initiation (EI) Age (lin) × NFF Age (quad) × NFF Age (lin) × EI Age (quad) × EI Age (lin) × NFF × EI Age (quad) × NFF × EI

Alcohol Use: Frequency and Recency

Alcohol Use b se b se No father figure (NFF) Early initiation (EI) Age (lin) × NFF Age (quad) × NFF Age (lin) × EI Age (quad) × EI Age (lin) × NFF × EI Age (quad) × NFF × EI NFF*.10.07

Alcohol Use b se Biological father (BFF) Early initiation (EI) Age (lin) × BFF Age (quad) × BFF Age (lin) × EI Age (quad) × EI Age (lin) × BFF × EI Age (quad) × BFF × EI.08.03

Alcohol Use: Frequency and Recency

Alcohol Use b se Biological father (BFF) Early initiation (EI) Age (lin) × BFF Age (quad) × BFF Age (lin) × EI Age (quad) × EI Age (lin) × BFF × EI Age (quad) × BFF × EI BFF*

Marijuana Use b se Intercept Age (lin) Age (quad) Gender Age (lin) × Gender Age (quad) × Gender

Marijuana Use: Frequency and Recency

Marijuana Use b se No father figure (NFF) Early initiation (EI) Age (lin) × NFF Age (quad) × NFF Age (lin) × EI Age (quad) × EI Age (lin) × NFF × EI Age (quad) × NFF × EI

Marijuana Use: Frequency and Recency

Marijuana Use b se b se No father figure (NFF) Early initiation (EI) Age (lin) × NFF Age (quad) × NFF Age (lin) × EI Age (quad) × EI Age (lin) × NFF × EI Age (quad) × NFF × EI NFF*.13.06

Marijuana Use b se Biological father (BFF) Early initiation (EI) Age (lin) × BFF Age (quad) × BFF Age (lin) × EI Age (quad) × EI Age (lin) × BFF × EI Age (quad) × BFF × EI

Marijuana Use: Frequency and Recency

Marijuana Use b se b se Biological father (BFF) Early initiation (EI) Age (lin) × BFF Age (quad) × BFF Age (lin) × EI Age (quad) × EI Age (lin) × BFF × EI Age (quad) × BFF × EI BFF*

Marijuana Use: Frequency and Recency

Fighting b se Intercept Age (lin) Age (quad) Gender Age (lin) × Gender Age (quad) × Gender

Fighting: Frequency and Recency

Weapon Carrying b se Intercept Age (lin) Age (quad) Gender Age (lin) × Gender Age (quad) × Gender

Weapon Carrying: Frequency and Recency

Weapon Carrying b se No father figure (NFF) Early initiation (EI) Age (lin) × NFF Age (quad) × NFF Age (lin) × EI Age (quad) × EI Age (lin) × NFF × EI Age (quad) × NFF × EI.18.09

Carrying a Weapon: Frequency and Recency

Weapon Carrying b se Biological father (BFF) Early initiation (EA) Age (lin) × BFF Age (quad) × BFF Age (lin) × EA Age (quad) × EA Age (lin) × BFF × EA Age (quad) × BFF × EA

Carrying a Weapon: Frequency and Recency

Weapon Brandishment b se Intercept Age (lin) Gender Age (lin) × Gender

Weapon Brandishment: Frequency and Recency

Weapon Brandishment b se No father figure (NFF) Early initiation (EI) Age (lin) × NFF Age (quad) × NFF Age (lin) × EI Age (quad) × EI Age (lin) × NFF × EI Age (quad) × NFF × EI.11.06

Brandishing a Weapon: Frequency and Recency

Weapon Carrying b se Biological father (BFF) Early initiation (EI) Age (lin) × BFF Age (quad) × BFF Age (lin) × EI Age (quad) × EI Age (lin) × BFF × EI Age (quad) × BFF × EI

Brandishing a Weapon: Frequency and Recency

Weapon Use b se Intercept Age (lin) Age (quad) Gender Age (lin) × Gender Age (quad) × Gender

Weapon Use: Frequency and Recency

Weapon Use b se No father figure (NFF) Early initiation (EI) Age (lin) × NFF Age (quad) × NFF Age (lin) × EI Age (quad) × EI Age (lin) × NFF × EI Age (quad) × NFF × EI

Using a Weapon: Frequency and Recency

Weapon Use b se Biological father (BFF) Early initiation (EI) Age (lin) × BFF Age (quad) × BFF Age (lin) × EI Age (quad) × EI Age (lin) × BFF × EI Age (quad) × BFF × EI

Using a Weapon: Frequency and Recency

The Challenges of Conditional Growth Curve Modeling 2,724 MYS respondents who were 9,10, or 11 at time of first observation; and indicated whether they had used alcohol 334 interviewed when they were father figure + no early use 108 father figure + early use 22 no father figure + no early use 11 no father figure + early use