European Fertilizer Manufacturers Association June 051 The EFMA Forecast Forecast of Food, Farming and Fertilizer Use In the European Union Methodology.

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Presentation transcript:

European Fertilizer Manufacturers Association June 051 The EFMA Forecast Forecast of Food, Farming and Fertilizer Use In the European Union Methodology

June 052 Agenda : The methodology for the EFMA forecast : »The objectives. »The principles. Assumptions and scenario : The National approach. Forecast in NMS. The EFMA forecast :

June 053 The objectives, principles and main stages The EFMA forecast :

June 054 Objectives & principles. Long term consumption forecast : Parallel and convergent with sales forecast (ISC) : >> « Full convergence » by campaign n-2/n-3. A « down-up » procedure, step by step : »Per country. »Crop acreage forecast, considering : Global and European Agro-economic trends. Agricultural policies. »Application rate forecast, considering : Evolution of technologies and agricultural practices. Environmental policies. Short term to long term forecast : 5 Campaigns : n-2/n-1, n-1/n, n/n+1, n+4/n+5, n+9/n+10 Based on « scenarios for the future » : »General trends, global and European. »National projections. The EFMA forecast :

June 055 Various stages of the process : an expert approach 1/ Building a scenario :March »The « European context », prepared by the leader of the WG : Agro-economic series & trends, world & Europe. Agricultural & Environmental policies. 2/ The EFMA scenario for a European agriculture.April >> The impact on fertilizer use, as foreseen by the forecast WG. 3/ Adapting the EFMA scenario to national level.May The impact of national situation and policies >> the « country report ». 4/ Making the national forecast. May- June 5/ Finalizing the European approach.June Critical approach of the forecast WG on each national scenario. 6/ Finalizing the European forecast : integration of all nationals.July 7/ Publishing and circulating the forecast. September The EFMA forecast :

June 056 Assumptions and scenario The EFMA forecast :

June 057 Building the EU scenario. Back-ground information : »Quantitative. Global : FAPRI, USDA & OECD EU : EU Commission and EEA. »Qualitative. Contact with EU experts (Agri & Env). Building the scenario : »Selecting relevant information for EFMA forecasters. »Proposing a draft scenario. »Discussing the scenario in plenum. The EFMA forecast :

June 058 The EFMA forecast : Back ground information for the EU scenario

June 059 EU 15 The EFMA forecast : Back ground information for the EU scenario :

June 0510 The EFMA forecast : Back ground information for the EU scenario :

June 0511 The EFMA forecast : Back ground information for the EU scenario :

June 0512 The EFMA forecast : Back ground information for the EU scenario :

June 0513 EU 25 CAP Reform E U prospects The EFMA forecast : Back ground information for the EU scenario :

June 0514 The EFMA forecast : Back ground information for the EU scenario :

June 0515 Scenario for the forecast ( Example ) Impact of the CAP reform : the impact assessment. Full decoupling : (single payment per ha, whatever crop is grown) >> decrease of COPs area, crops with high application rate. but limited : safety net of the intervention price. Cross compliance : (stricter implementation of environmental regulations) >> slight decrease of N application rate to be expected.

June 0516 The National approach : developing the Expertise The EFMA forecast :

June 0517 Crop needs (- nutrients from other sources). Advisory service, consultants. Publications (scientific, Farmers weekly). Your control calculation. Watch other nutrient sources (National budget !) : » farmyard manure, slurry » sewage sludge » others » efficiency The National approach. Sources of information for Application rate : The EFMA forecast :

June 0518 Statistical yearbook. Newspapers, journals, etc… News agencies e.g. Agra Europe. Press releases : - Ministry of Agriculture. - Growers associations. - Newspaper / journal for merchants. - International produce traders. - Plant breeders / -associations. The National approach. Sources of information for Crop area planted : The EFMA forecast :

June 0519 Implementation of EU-rules and –programmes. National programmes. National / regional limitations. points of discussion (conferences, media). Intensity of discussions (conferences, media). Direct contacts (ministry, n.g.o., administration). The National approach. Sources of information for Environmental policy : The EFMA forecast :

June 0520 Agriculture does not jump ! Watch out for crucial political decisions. Never believe just one source … Regular amendments of the set of data lead to a stable and reliable base. You are the best one to judge and to decide ! Accept that you cant be (always) right ! The National approach. Some bits of experience : The EFMA forecast :

June 0521 Methodologies developed for the New Member States The EFMA forecast :

June 0522 The New Member States A transition period for the forecast exercise : EU 15 and EEC 10 still separated. Three methodologies used, all desk research : »Trends of consumption volumes (2001 & 2002): >> Crossed with historical comparison (France). »First crop based approach (2003): First developed for Poland : EU model for areas + expert model for rates. Extended to 4 countries : Hungary, Czech Rep and Slovakia. »Second crop based approach (2004): Crop areas : EU model + extension to other crops. Rates : Crossing previous model, sales and local information. Extended to 8 countries. >> Time to use the full method, with Experts.

June 0523 Thank you ! The EFMA forecast :