Tsvyatko Velikov DG REGIO Bulgaria Tsvyatko.Velikov@ec.europa.eu N+3 as a Tool for Strategic Fund Management LOTHAR - the way it works Tsvyatko Velikov DG REGIO Bulgaria Tsvyatko.Velikov@ec.europa.eu

Key principles to set up the system A uniform approach across OPs Using same method for all (with a view to aggregate data) Forecast at the lowest meaningful level (considering time and efficiency) Forecast as much as possible Forecast as far as possible and using your best guess Freeze the forecast and establish baseline monitoring

The key principles in a diagram

The elements of LOTHAR Flash sheets for the state of play N+3 sheets for the forecast

Flash sheets 3 core indicators: contracting, payment, certification Sub-indicators for each of the core indicators Sub-indicators are different for calls and for major projects 30 columns and 70 rows – printable in A3

An overview of the Flash sheet OP structure Calls specification budget, EU funds, intervention rate Project selection projects received /selected/total budget Contracts performance projects contracted, total budget, forecast Payments performance Total paid, EU share, forecast Certification performance Total certified, EU share, Operation 1 -n Call 1-n Major project 1-n Works Contract 1-n

N+3 Sheets The Commitment profile and the N+3 profile are based on the total OP allocations. These targets are imposed. The contracting, payment and certification forecast are established by e.g. the MA Indicators measure the real contracting, payment and certification performance Charts and 120 excel sheets for each OP and priority axes

An overview of an OP N+3 sheet Commitment profile N+3/2 profile Contracts forecast and performance Payments Certification QI 2007 QII 2007 …. IV/2015

Analysis of the flash sheet a case study

The analysis of the Flash Sheet - contracting The grid of the Flash Sheet follows the project cycle, both for calls and projects. The analysis allows to establish: The pipeline for calls (could also be projects): When are the next calls; what are the deadlines for submission of projects? The pipeline for project contracting When does project selection start?+ How many proposals? How complex is evaluation? How complex is the negotiation of contracts? How long does it take to transform some project proposals into contracts? (i.e. award of financing)

The analysis of the Flash Sheet – payment and certification The pipeline for payments What are the provisions for advance payments, re-imbursements and final payments The pipeline for certification How long does it take to process a bill, from submission by Beneficiary to submission of certifications of expenditure to the European Commission

Call deadline: 31 January 2009 Forecasting An example: 1 January 2009 forecast 10 million € call for proposals Call deadline: 31 January 2009 500 projects anticipated (jungle drums) = more than expected. Only 100 can be financed Project selection in two phases: technical + quality. Result only when all projects evaluated. Originally expected 2 month, now 3 month, i.e. 30 April Contract negotiation easy, while standardised contract + no major eligibility question. Contracts can be signed gradually: 25 contracts per week, 100 contracts signed 31 May

Forecasting An example: 1 January 2009 forecast 10 million € call for proposals No certifiable advance payments. Project selection based on mature documents (e.g. building permits; tender documents). Tendering needed, but small scale: Average 3 months from award of contract to tender result first bills expected from Beneficiaries 5 months after contracting First bills available for estimated 20% of project value, for estimated 25% of all projects having reached this stage (the rest are delayed) by 31 October Expected expenditure 31 October = 5 million € Expected certification submission 3 months later = 31 January 2010