The GAINS Model for Greenhouse Gases: Nitrous Oxide Wilfried Winiwarter Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, 2004

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, of 22 Outline The RAINS model Emission sources Emission abatement (N 2 O related vs. for other reasons) Costs

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, of 22 The RAINS model

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, of 22 Multi-pollutant multi-effect GHG control & costs GHG emissionsGHG dispersionGlobal warming

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, of 22 Processes Nitric acid production –Fertilizer industry –Abatement by NSCR Adipic acid production –Only a handful of installations –High flue gas concentrations facilitate abatement –Voluntary agreement by industry lead to a decrease before 2000 (process optimization) –Catalytic reduction or oxidation

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, of 22 Combustion Stationary sources, NO x abatement –SNCR (urea as reducing agent) –Fluidized bed Mobile sources, NO x abatement –Catalytic converters (IPCC factor too high) –EURO-IV diesel engines

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, of 22 Direct use Anesthetic Foaming agent in food industry Emissions by population –From German/Dutch/Austrian UNFCCC submission –From hospitals environmental declarations

N2ON2O N2ON2O N2ON2O Atmospheric deposition Mineral fertilizer leaching spreading Nitrification, denitrification... SOIL WATER NH 3, NO x Microbial production

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, of 22 Non – soil Sewage treatment –40% reduction potential at no costs (Hendriks et al.) Manure storage –Following IPCC emission factors –Using RAINS classifications of storage types

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, of 22 RAINS structure

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, of 22 Model parameterization IPCC emission factor Regression model Deterministic model EEF EF Regression model Deterministic model IPCC emission factor

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, of 22 Soil N 2 O

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, of 22 Options to reduce N 2 O emissions Reduction of nitrogen loss Reduction of N-input (mineral fertilizer) 4 categories –Simple (good management) –Sophisticated (complex farming patterns) –Agrochemical (nitrification inhibitor) –Hi-tech (satellite data)

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, of 22 Negative costs Cost savings due to savings on fertilizer costs: up to 17,000 /t N 2 O Assumes that fertilizer reduction does not affect crop yield or require additional costs Cost savings are considered equal to transaction costs occurring when implementing measures (otherwise measures would have been introduced autonomously already)

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, of 22 Forest soils Anthropogenic NO x emissions / deposition: N 2 O emissions from forest soils We apply IPCC default emission factors and the parametrization of a deterministic (DNDC) model Deposition according to EMEP, year 2000 (fixed). N 2 O emissions attributed to recipient country of deposition (in contrast to the IPCC concept)

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, of 22 Abatement costs sectortechnologyAbatement costs ( / t N 2 O)( / t CO 2 -eq) Adipic acidCatalytic reduction Nitric acidCatalytic reduction Sewage treatment plants Process optimization00 Use of N 2 O (anesthetics) Replacement200, AgricultureFertilizer reduction15005 AgricultureFertilizer timing10,00034 AgricultureNitrification inhibitors20,00068 AgriculturePrecision farming60, Agriculture – organic soils Stop agricultural use42,000142

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, of 22 Interactions SectorImportant interactions with other pollutants in GAINS Power plants and Industry SCR and NCSR technologiesNO x Fluidised bed combustionNO x Power plants / Agriculture Increased fertilizer consumption due to energy crop plantation CO 2 TransportCatalytic converterNO x AgricultureManure spreading (deep injection) NH 3 (CH 4 ) Anaerobic digestion of manureCH 4 Fertilizer productionCO 2 Nitrogen inputNitrate in groundwater

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, of 22 Assumptions CLE CAP reforms reduce fertilizer input at a level of the simple option fertilizer reduction for EU25 Adipic acid plants are fully controlled

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, of 22 Timeline CLE (Europe, 39 countries provisional data)

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, of 22 Timeline MFR (Europe, 39 countries provisional data)

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, of 22 Cost curve sectortechnology Spec. costs [/t N 2 O] Emissions abat. [kt N 2 O] Cost [mio ] Increm.abat [kt N 2 O] Increment Cost [M ] Adipic acidCatalytic reduction GrasslandFertilizer reduction Arable landFertilizer reduction Sewage treatment pl.Process optimization Nitric acidCatalytic reduction GrasslandFertilizer reduction Arable landFertilizer reduction GrasslandFertilizer timing Arable landFertilizer timing GrasslandNitrification inhib Arable landNitrification inhib Agriculture – org. soilsStop agricultural use GrasslandPrecision farming Arable landPrecision farming Use of N2O.Replacement (Europe, 39 countries provisional data)

Expert meeting on improving the quality of GHG emission inventories for category 4D Ispra, October 21-22, of 22 Conclusions Soil is the dominant source of anthropogenic N 2 O emissions in Europe N 2 O emissions and emission reductions strongly characterized by interferences Options to reduce additional to CLE at moderate costs are available Controls – independent of costs – will be applied due to reasons other than GHG abatement