European Crime and Safety Survey (EU-ICS): Issues in Design and Estimation Robert Manchin Gallup Organisation, Europe Citizens and Governance in a Knowledge-Based Society First Call in Area 6 Brussels, 11 th November 2004

Outline Background Consortium Partners: –UNODC, Max Planck Institute, UNICRI, CEPS Objectives of EU-ICS Survey – Sample Allocation – Data Collection Design Issues – Estimation Issues Access / Data Lab, Future Applications

What if? Landline coverage is not the same in the 25 countries? (coverage error 1) Mobile only is not a high status, but low status attribute – and status and victimization related? Mix of nophone / land only / mobile & landline /mobile only is changing ?

Objectives Objective 1: Estimate personal and household crime (VICTIM / SAFETY) rates at the National and EU level Objective 2: Estimate personal and household crime rates at the NUTS2 level

Data Collection Design Phone Data Collection with centralized RDD sample management n = 2000/per country with capital city boosted samples

Telephone Data Collection and Design

Estimation Single Frame Dual Frame – Landline – Mobile Multiple Frame – Landline – Mobile – Non-telephone

Nuts 2 Estimates a.k.a. Small Area Estimation Margin of error – Nuts 2 – 2.4% to 9.9% Capital cities small area estimation – Synthetic – Past data – Borrow strength

Issues of access, collaboration EU funding requirements –50% of costs only –One-time research budget / original R&D, no strict repetition –Sustainable, on-going monitoring / benchmarking with corresponding business model –Consortium of users? Subscription based?

Capital city – combination of survey data with process-produced data

Questions? Suggestions? Demo: