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2 Why are Result & Impact Indicators Needed? To better understand the positive/negative results of EC aid. The main questions are: 1.What change is needed? 2.For whom? 3.How to measure this change?

3 Why are Result & Impact Indicators Needed? 1. Assist EC country teams to develop a set of indicators for the programming level (e.g. to guide development and monitoring of a Country Strategy Paper) 2. To fill, as much as possible, the 'missing middle' between implementation indicators and global impact indicators

4 The Missing Middle Outputs Results (Outcomes) Specific Impacts Intermediate Impacts Global Impacts Implementation Programming

5 Agriculture & Rural Development Intervention Logic Provision of Public Goods Better Management of Natural Resources Mitigating Agricultural Price Volatility Increased Productivity Increased Production Higher Rural Income Economic Growth Social Development Poverty Reduction Output Clusters Results (Outcomes) Specific Impacts Intermediate Impacts Global Impacts Improved Environmental Sustainability Improved Quality of Products Increased Profitability of Rural Business Increased Affordability of & Subsistence in Food Increased Trade Enabling Economic & Regulatory Environment Efficient Employment Non-Farm Agri-Labour Greater Food Security MDG 1 MDGs 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 & 7 MDG 7 Improved Access Markets Farm Inputs Capital Information Services

6 Agriculture Based Economies (1) Identified by: Agriculture provides basis for growth (i.e. contributes over 30% of GDP) 70% of poor live in rural areas Typical areas: Sub-Saharan Africa Regions within India & Mexico Intervention focus: Improve smallholder competitiveness Ensure livelihoods and food security

7 Efficient Employment Agriculture Based Economies (2) Provision of Public Goods Better Management of Natural Resources Mitigating Agricultural Price Volatility Increased Productivity Increased Production Higher Rural Income Economic Growth Social Development Poverty Reduction Output Clusters Results (Outcomes) Specific Impacts Intermediate Impacts Global Impacts Improved Environmental Sustainability Improved Quality of Products Increased Profitability of Rural Business Increased Affordability of & Subsistence in Food Increased Trade Enabling Economic & Regulatory Environment Non-Farm Agri-Labour Greater Food Security Improved Access Markets Farm Inputs Capital Information Services

8 Transforming Economies (1) Identified by: Agriculture no longer driver of growth (i.e. 7% of GDP) with rising urban-rural poverty gap 82% of poor live in rural areas Typical areas: South/East Asia (e.g. China, India) Middle East and North Africa (e.g. Morocco) Intervention focus: Comprehensive approach and multiple pathways out of poverty to reduce the urban-rural divide - shifting to high-value agriculture - decentralising non-farm economic activities to rural areas

9 Efficient Employment Transforming Economies (2) Provision of Public Goods Better Management of Natural Resources Mitigating Agricultural Price Volatility Increased Productivity Increased Production Higher Rural Income Economic Growth Social Development Poverty Reduction Output Clusters Results (Outcomes) Specific Impacts Intermediate Impacts Global Impacts Improved Environmental Sustainability Improved Quality of Products Increased Profitability of Rural Business Increased Affordability of & Subsistence in Food Increased Trade Enabling Economic & Regulatory Environment Non-Farm Agri-Labour Greater Food Security Improved Access Markets Farm Inputs Capital Information Services

10 Urban-Based Economies (1) Identified by: Small agriculture sector (i.e. less than 0.5% of GDP) with high urban poverty 45% of poor live in rural areas Typical areas: Latin America Central Asia Intervention focus: Link farmers to modern food markets Improve quality of agri-business and food industry Introduce market for environmental services

11 Efficient Employment Urban-Based Economies (2) Provision of Public Goods Better Management of Natural Resources Mitigating Agricultural Price Volatility Increased Productivity Increased Production Higher Rural Income Economic Growth Social Development Poverty Reduction Output Clusters Results (Outcomes) Specific Impacts Intermediate Impacts Global Impacts Improved Environmental Sustainability Improved Quality of Products Increased Profitability of Rural Business Increased Affordability of & Subsistence in Food Increased Trade Enabling Economic & Regulatory Environment Non-Farm Agri-Labour Greater Food Security Improved Access Markets Farm Inputs Capital Information Services

12 Result (Outcome) Indicators (1) Provision of Public Goods Better Management of Natural Resources Mitigating Agricultural Price Volatility Output Clusters Results (Outcomes) Indicators Enabling Economic & Regulatory Environment 1.Support for consumers vulnerable to short-term food price changes 2.Support for farmers vulnerable to short-term food price changes 3.Access to road transportation 13.Preservation of natural resources 14.Sustainable management practices 15.Environmental services 4.Access to land 5.Access to water 6.Access to seeds and fertilisers 7.Access to improved breeds of animals/fish 10.Availability of credit 11.Investment in rural areas 12.Establishing a rural business Improved Access Markets Farm Inputs Capital Information Services 8.Access to extension services 9.Access to information on market

13 Efficient Employment Result (Outcome) Indicators (2) Provision of Public Goods Better Management of Natural Resources Mitigating Agricultural Price Volatility Increased Productivity Increased Production Output Clusters Results (Outcomes) Improved Quality of Products Enabling Economic & Regulatory Environment Non-Farm Agri-Labour Indicators 16.Non-farm employment 17.Agriculture labour employment 18.Land productivity 19.Labour productivity 20.Capital productivity 21.Production 22.Type of production/diversification 23.International marketing standards Improved Access Markets Farm Inputs Capital Information Services

14 Efficient Employment Specific Impact Indicators Provision of Public Goods Better Management of Natural Resources Mitigating Agricultural Price Volatility Increased Productivity Increased Production Output Clusters Results (Outcomes) Improved Quality of Products Enabling Economic & Regulatory Environment Non-Farm Agri- Labour Indicators 24.Agricultural prices 25.Growth in agricultural businesses 26.Growth in rural non-farm businesses 27.Affordability of food 28.Subsistence in food 29.Agricultural trade 30.Rural non-farm trade Increased Profitability of Rural Business Increased Affordability of & Subsistence in Food Increased Trade Improved Access Markets Farm Inputs Capital Information Services

15 Efficient Employment Intermediate Impact Indicators Provision of Public Goods Better Management of Natural Resources Mitigating Agricultural Price Volatility Increased Productivity Increased Production Output Clusters Results (Outcomes) Improved Quality of Products Enabling Economic & Regulatory Environment Non-Farm Agri- Labour Indicators 33.Land sustainability 34.Sustainable extraction of water 35.Adapting to climate change 31.Rural Income 32.Undernourishment Increased Profitability of Rural Business Increased Affordability of & Subsistence in Food Increased Trade Higher Rural Income Greater Food Security Improved Environmental Sustainability Improved Access Markets Farm Inputs Capital Information Services

16 The Missing Middle Outputs Results (Outcomes) Specific Impacts Intermediate Impacts Global Impacts Implementation Programming

17 Attention 1. This is a simplified tool, not a template. Intervention logic must be developed for each country based on its context and existing government strategies 2. Indictors are not fixed but provide ideas on how to set, monitor and evaluate CSP objectives 3. Crosscutting issues should be mainstreamed into relevant indicators (e.g. disaggregation of data by gender) 4. Outcomes/Impact are not fully attributable to the EC Outputs are 100% attributable to the EC but attribution falls as you move up the chain of results

18 List of Key Indicators (with examples) Price Volatility Result (Outcome) Indicators 1. Consumer vulnerability to short-term price changes 2. Farmer vulnerability to short-term price changes Improved Access Result (Outcome) Indicators 3. Access to road transportation 4. Access to land 5. Access to water 6. Access to seeds and fertilisers 7. Access to improved breeds of animals/fish 8. Access to extension services 9. Access to information on markets 10. Availability of credit 11. Investment in rural areas 12. Establishing a rural business Natural Resource Result (Outcome) Indicators 13. Preservation of natural resources 14. Sustainable management practices 15. Environmental services Employment Result (Outcome) Indicators 16. Non-farm employment 17. Agricultural labour Productivity Result (Outcome) Indicators 18. Land productivity 19. Labour productivity 20. Capital productivity Production Result (Outcome) Indicators 21. Production 22. Type of production/diversification Quality Result (Outcome) Indicators 23. International marketing standards Profitability Specific Impact Indicators 24. Agricultural prices 25. Growth in agricultural businesses 26. Growth in rural non-farm businesses Affordability/Subsistence Specific Impact Indicators 27. Affordability of food 28. Subsistence in food Trade Specific Impact Indicators 29. Agricultural trade 30. Rural non-farm trade Rural Income Intermediate Impact Indicators 31. Rural income Food Security Intermediate Impact Indicators 32. Undernourishment Environment Sustainability Intermediate Impact Indicators 33. Land sustainability 34. Sustainable extraction of water 35. Adapting to climate change