Land Management Unit Modelling future land use changes in Europe The MOLAND urban and regional development model Laura O. Petrov, Carlo Lavalle, Carla Rocha Gomes European Commission Joint Research Centre Ispra,Italy

Land Management Unit General remarks: The MOLAND model have been developed by EC- Joint Research Centre, Ispra. Its first version was launched in 1998 (part of Murbandy project). Today the last version of the model is recognised as the MOLAND model.

Land Management Unit Goals of the work: -To simulate urban growth (and sprawl) based on policy and zoning regulations -To monitor urban sustainability in cities and regions for supporting integrated spatial planning

Land Management Unit Content What is the MOLAND model? How the model works? Type of questions that can answer? Study case: Leipzig area, Germany

Land Management Unit Model overviews: How does it work? Cellular Automata- based model Cellular Automata- based model Neighborhood & transition rules Suitability Accessibility Zoning status Simulated Land Use, year 2025 Land use (t+1) Population Income Production Employment Population Income Production Employment Socio-economic data

Land Management Unit Neighborhood effect: - A circular neighbourhood consisting of 196 cells is applied (radius eight pixels) - The effect in the central cell is calculated in a distance- decay way 1 cell = 100 x 100 m Cellular Automata- based model

Land Management Unit Setting up the model for Leipzig area, Germany Calibration period: Data setsHistorical dateReference data Leipzig area Future simulation period:

Land Management Unit 2000 real 2000sim. Urban development in Leipzig area (detailed) Urban area Agricultural area Forests Green urban area Construction sites Legend Industrial and commercials Water bodies

Land Management Unit Urban development in Leipzig area (detailed) Urban area Agricultural area Forests Green urban area Construction sites Legend 1990 Industrial and commercials Water bodies 2025 Industry

Land Management Unit Leipzig region ( ) Fuzzy Kappa - Continuous urban fabric: Discontinuous urban fabric: Industrial and commercial: Construction sites: Port areas:1 New development

Land Management Unit Source: Joe Ravetz Scenarios: - Focus on qualitative pictures - Quantitative and qualitative pictures - More emphasis on global trends - Focus on uncertainty - Results determined by future imagines - From future to present - Creative thinking - Open future -Plausible reasoning - From complex to simple - From qualitative to quantitative - Expert information useful - Analysis of new policies/instruments

Land Management Unit 1. Based on general contextual understanding Land use scenario storylines for the Leipzig Statistic data such as population size, economic growth, un/employment, existing land use patterns

Land Management Unit Socio-economic factors in scenario building

Land Management Unit Socio-economic factors in scenario building

Land Management Unit Scenarios storylines matrix: Business-as-usual scenario Population (fertility, mortality, in-migration, out-migration, peri- urban/rural growth) Leipzig is characterized by steady decrease due to out-migration of the young, particularly woman; low rate fertility and ageing of population demography. Economic trends GDP is slowly increasing. Moderate economic growth due to industrial activity and transport logistics (DHL, Amazon, UPS, Quelle distribution centre). Slow increase in manufacturing. Banks stable at a low level. Agriculture plays a minor role. Urbanization/ Spatial planning Increase of infrastructure construction (e.g. demolished houses replaced by partly housing and partly recreation/sports; however construction sites increase (new residential development inside of the city – increase the density). Transport New investment in transport (e.g. link to motorway Chemnitz; fast railways to Munich, Berlin and Erfurt (ICE)). Shock storylines and overall trends (politic, financial, etc) Economic low increase. Low environmental protection. After 2013 Eastern Germany is no longer prior target area for EU structural funds and German Solidarity Fund stops 2017.

Land Management Unit Scenarios storylines matrix: Hyper-tech scenario Population (fertility, mortality, in-migration, out-migration, peri- urban/rural growth) Leipzig is characterized by rapid increase of young population and increase of fertility rates. Economic trends GDP is characterized by rapid growth. Invest more in: high-tech sectors (electronics, computers, pharmaceutical).Tourism is encouraged by a larger supply and diversification of offers. Also the service sector is reinforced, providing more employment. New policy to invest in education such as more research institutes. Urbanization/ Spatial planning Polycentric urbanization: new residential developments are encouraged between Leipzig – Halle axis and other towns. Transport New transport investment (e.g. improvement of national roads and better links to the motorways; airport extensions). Shock storylines and overall trends (politic, financial, etc) Rapid technology advance – Economic growth. Passive management leading to peri-urbanization and urbanization of rural area. Economic crisis.

Land Management Unit Scenarios storylines matrix: Peak oil scenario Population (fertility, mortality, in-migration, out-migration, peri- urban/rural growth) Leipzig is characterized by increase of population due to in- migration of the young. Economic trends GDP is increasing. The industrial activity is reinforced. New investment in manufacturing, tourism and services. More employment in science. Urbanization/ Spatial planning New residential development inside of the city – increase the density by multi-stories buildings. Existing old buildings are preserved or demolished leading to perforation. Services close to industry. Transport Low transport investment due to high fuel costs and environmental concerns. Shock storylines and overall trends (politic, financial, etc) Peak oil - Economic increase. Moderate environmental intervention. High energy prices affect transport costs limiting commuting distance.

Land Management Unit How narrative storylines are translated in the model/into quantitative scenarios Drivers Simulated parameters Residential high low Services IndustryCommerce Population GDP Productivity Constructions Transport X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XX X X X X X X X X X X Degree of urbanization Tourism (hotels, real estate, other business)

Land Management Unit Business as usual' scenario

Land Management Unit Hyper-tech scenario

Land Management Unit Peak oil scenario

Land Management Unit Land use changes per category Business-as- usual (%) Hyper- tech (%) Peak oil (%) Continuous residential Discontinuous residential Industrial& Commercial Construction sites Scenarios land use changes:

Land Management Unit Demand for different urban land uses & accessibility are key elements responsible for urban development; Urban simulations offer a useful approach of understanding the effects of urban and regional planning policies. MOLAND model has the potential to impact directly on policy formulation by testing alternative strategies and exploring the development consequence of these alternative. Conclusions:

Land Management Unit