Grand Strategy Thinking in the 21st Century Arctic Energy & Security Developments by Mikå Mered, Polariis Consulting

We all know the Arctic is hard to define

We all know the ice is melting

We all know shipping lanes are opening

NSR & Arctic Bridge

GEOSTRATEGY NWP & Arctic Bridge

Are we focusing on the right questions? May there be a war for the Arctic’s resources?

From Hobbes to Tilly: war making is inherent to modern state making, since resources grabbing is the only way to sustain the state. «War made the state, and the state made war» (C. Tilly, in War Making and State Making as Organized Crime)

First question: can we not tap into Arctic oil & gas?

Maximum mechanical energy produced by a 65kg average human being in one day: 0,55 kWh If produced every other day= 100kWh per annum 1L of fossil fuel = 10kWh 1 human = 10L of fossil fuel

How many slaves do we own? Energy Consumption per Person per Year (in kWh, global average)

In a finite (malthusian) world, a € inefficiently used is a lost €... (1/2) € / kW / working hours Yearly running time (in hours) € / kW installed Lifetime (in years) kWh produced per kW installed over lifetime €cents of capital required per kWh produced over lifetime NuclearCOALO&GHydro Onshore wind Solar Offshore wind

Only 3 technologies have better ROI than O&G: Thorium-cycle Nuclear (technology known, grid- building possible in ±20 yrs) Fusion H2 (better ROI, but EROEI depends on primary energy source used) In a finite (malthusian) world, a € inefficiently used is a lost €... (2/2)

USGS average est.: 412 Bn BOEArctic O&G: Greenland: 30% Iceland: 1% Norway: 0% Russia: 0% Alaska: 0% Canada: 0% Dependence on foreign oil:

Arctic vs Shales? © Power magazine

Arctic vs Shales?

Arctic hydrocarbon direct revenues expected by Russian strategists (if curr. prices remain constent): $1.7 Tn

TAKEAWAY No renewable energy at this point is efficient enough to cannibalize fossil fuels. 27% of all energy investments worldwide are directed towards inefficient- enough renewables. However, these investments only serves microeconomic short-term interests. The financial bubble created will harm mature economies when the market corrects itself in years time, due to the rapid emergence of greentechs with much greater EROEI.

TAKEAWAY At our level of technological advancement, no one primary energy source can sustainably support a global hegemon. Likewise, current G0 world order is unsustainable.

From a geostrategic perspective

Until 15th century

16th-19th centuries1st Globalization Wave

19th centurySea-land opposition

1904Heartland

1942HeartlandRimland

Chicago Plan Commission - Airports Page Courtesy of Prelinger Library's Chicago ephemera collection / Eric Fischer 1945

1946

HeartlandRimlandContainment

2012HeartlandRimlandContainmentPIVOT

2013Iceless-Arctic?PIVOT

2013Iceless-Arctic?PIVOT

2013Iceless-Arctic?

Arctic Trafic Mars ‘12Sept. ‘12 GIUK Gap

Announced Military Investments in the Arctic ( ) NATO: $100 Bn Russia: $750 Bn NATO: $60 Bn Russia: $350 Bn Our correction (most-plausible scenario)

2020 & bey.GIUK Gap as the new world’s heartland

Permanent Observers NB: EU & Turkey have ad-hoc observer status. Member-states Inclusiveness & comprehensiveness are the keys

Foreign Policy tools Track-II tools

TAKEAWAY The Arctic community has 20 to 25 years ahead of her to develop as many strategic inderdependencies as possible and allow for the emergence of an official dialogue on security issues. The Arctic Council is the only legitimate-enough body to host and organize such dialogue. Global regionalisation strategy necessary to foster global security. Otherwise, there will be no conflict for the Arctic, but should there be a conflict, it will happen in the Arctic.

Thank you !