First Results on the Quantitative Data Analysis in Madagascar

Vakinankaratra To Fianarantsoa RN 7 To Antananarivo To Morondava West Coast

Fianarantsoa To Antsirabe To Toliara

Village Strata VAKINA Paved RoadLargeSmall PANEL CloseMandriankeniIandratsay Ambohiambo FarManarintsoa Ambohijafy Antampondra Tsaramody NEW CloseAmbatomaintyTsaratanana FarZanakambonyAndranokely

Village Strata FIANAR Paved RoadLargeSmall FIANAR CloseMiandrifekonaAmbohimaha FarSahavanana Sangasanga Tsararivotra Ampampana

Samples N 1992N 1997N 2000N 2002 Panel135 New80 VAKINA FIANAR095122

Attrition Rate Sample size Between 97 – 00 Between 00 – 02 VAKINA13532 (23.7%)7 (5.1%) FIANAR12229 (23.8%)16 (13.1%)

A.R. Vakinankaratra To Fianarantsoa RN 7 To Antananarivo To Morondava 27/0 13/0 53/20 12/8 20/8 27/0 40/0

A.R Fianarantsoa To Antsirabe To Toliara 21/16 45/15 31/25 7/0 45/15 20/8 19/5

Reason of Non-Retrieval - Temporary absent from the village (may be re-surveyed) - Temporary migration for Ag. salary worker - Temporary migration to mining area - Refuse to be interviewed (sickness, too old) - Definitive migration

Survey Facts - Time consuming: 5 to 10 hours per HH - F(# of plots, # Ag. Activities) - Split interview in 2 stages - No time to visit all plots - 40% Vakinankaratra - 60% Fianarantsoa - Have to pay farmers

Income Computation - AGRICULTURAL INCOME - Sales - Consumption: Food, Feed, Seed - LIVESTOCK INCOME - Sales - Consumption - Farm product (Valued at 25% village price of adult) - NONFARM INCOME (NET) - Wage (including Ag. Wage) - Transfer - Non agricultural Activities

Income Computation (cont'd) - Official Minimum Wage = US$ 30 = US$ 1 per day per capita - Family of 2  Extreme-poor - Family of 4  Ultra-poor -Average household size in Madagascar: Between 4 and 6 -Average Agricultural wage for hired labor = US$ to 70% Cash - 30 – 70% Food

Transition Matrix Vakinankaratra Poverty line US$ 0.50Poverty line US$ 0.25 Poor in 2002 Non Poor in 2002 Poor in 2002 Non Poor in 2002 Poor in %8.5%30.9%6.4% Non Poor in %8.5%27.7%35.1%

Transition Matrix Fianarantsoa Poverty line US$ 0.50Poverty line US$ 0.25 Poor in 2002 Non Poor in 2002 Poor in 2002 Non Poor in 2002 Poor in %5.2%48.3%5.2% Non Poor in %0.0%34.5%12.1%

Vakinankaratra 1997 – 2002 Per capita INCOME

Fianarantsoa 1997 – 2002 Per capita INCOME

Stat : Demographic Char. V VAKINA (US$.25) Household SizeAge of HHHEducation level of HHH P1/P P1/NP NP1/P NP1/NP

Stat : Demographic Char. F FIANAR (US$.25) Household SizeAge of HHHEducation level of HHH P1/P P1/NP NP1/P NP1/NP

Stat : Food Security V Number of Months where food consumption is low Average kg of rice purchased during the year P1/P P1/NP NP1/P NP1/NP VAKINANKARATRA4.6405

Stat : Food Security F Number of Months where food consumption is low Average kg of rice purchased during the year P1/P P1/NP NP1/P NP1/NP FIANARANTSOA5.5293

Stat : Agricultural Land V HH Rice field in are HH upland in are Per capita Rice field in are Per capita upland in are P1/P P1/NP NP1/P NP1/NP VAKINA

Stat : Agricultural Land F HH Rice field in are HH upland in are Per capita Rice field in are Per capita upland in are P1/P P1/NP NP1/P NP1/NP FIANAR

Stat : Income Composition V Per capita income 2002 per year WageNon Agricultural LivestockAgricultural P1/P P1/NP NP1/P NP1/NP VAKINA

Stat : Income Composition F Per capita income 2002 per year WageNon Agricultural LivestockAgricultural P1/P P1/NP NP1/P NP1/NP FIANAR

Recommendation for Qualitative work Village with PNP - 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 for Vakinankaratra - 22, 23 for Fianarantsoa Village with NPP - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 for Vakinankaratra - 19, 21 for Fianarantsoa Village with NPNP - 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 - None at US$ 0.50