Parallel Workshop Session: Workshop 2.2 Territorial Factors for Global Competitiveness and Economic Growth ESPON Internal Seminar 2012 “Territorial Development Opportunities in Europe and its Neighbourhood to Foster Global Competitiveness”

The sharpest divides are between Europe (including Turkey) and North Africa, and between Finland and Russia. However there is also an economic division within Europe between west and east, a gap that also separates off Greece and Cyprus. It is also notable that the discontinuity between the Neighbourhood countries of North Africa and those to the south of them across the Sahara is as great again as the Europe / North Africa disparity. These divisions in economic wealth are paralleled by divisions in demographic profiles. Whereas the demographic perspectives largely follow the wealth divisions between east and west, they show a reverse picture for the north-south dimension. The southern neighbours are expected to experience a population increase between 2000 and 2030 which goes well beyond the increases expected within EU27+IS+LI+NO+SW. Stimulus map Descontinuities in GDP per capita,

Workshop 2.2 – key questions for ESPON projects 3 1.What are the main observations or conclusions from your project - for Europe, its regions and cities - in relation to “economic development, innovation, technological development, research trade flows, territorial specialisation and profiles”? Please select maximum 2 maps from your project and include maximum 5 bullet points that could illustrate and synthesize this question. Maximum use 3-4 slides for showing ESPON evidence on this question. 2. How do developments in Europe´s neighborhood influence the territorial development in Europe and vice-versa (according to your mind / your ESPON findings)? Please include maximum 3 bullet points that could illustrate and synthesize this question, as much as possible based on your project results and on the case studies developed. Please use 1 slide to answer to this question. 3. What opportunities and challenges exists for Europe and its neighbourhood for increasing competitiveness through further cooperation and integration? (according to your mind / your ESPON findings)? Please include maximum 3 bullet points that could illustrate and synthesize this question. Please use 1 slide to answer to this question.

4 Trends in Europe Hypothesis Activity rate is more important than unemployment rate for the evaluation of territorial trends in Europe. Because it reveals the real potential of territory in terms of labour forces surplus or deficits. Absolute count of active and employed people are more interesting than relative ratio for a sound prediction of structural changes in a mid term perspective ( ) Thanks to HyperAtlas V2 and M4D core databse strategy, it is possible to evaluate the trends and the current situation

5 Trends in Europe

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9 Main discoveries Trends of active population reveals a very strong increase in Spain, Ireland, southern France, Northern Italy and at a less degree Benelux and northern Europe. At the same time, we observe a very strong of available labour force in Romania, Southern Italy, Germany, Baltic countries. As a whole, an important move of active from east to west. Distribution of activity rate in 2009 is characterized by strong imbalances in the use of available labour force. Maximum use of available labour force is observed in northern and central Europe and minimum use in peripheral area of southern and eastern Europe. We can therefore anticipate a baseline scenario of increasing mobility of active from peripheral to core area.

Europe´s neighborhood influence Methodology for the identification of attractive an repulsive poles

Europe´s neighborhood influence Identification of relative growth pole offers a good vision of the location of main growing metropolitan area in EU and neighborhood. Strong polarisations are observed both inside and outside EU because of global process of metropolisation.

12 Opportunities for Europe Hypothesis Young Depency Rate (Pop. 0-14/ Pop 15-64) is the key strategic indicator to evaluate the renewal of labour force in the next 30 years ( ). What are the potential complementarities with neighborhood ? Are opportunities different toward east and south ? What about education of labour force toward east and south ?

13 Opportunities for Europe

14 Opportunities for Europe

15 Opportunities for Europe Key discoveries Theoretical possibilities of complementarities between North and South for labour force renewal BUT Strong deficit of labour force to be expected in eastern neighborhood Competition with gulf coutries for labour force available in Middle East Highest potentialities for EU in Maghreb and Turkey. … IMPLIES STRONG COOPERATION IN HIGHER EDUCATION & RESEARCH !