2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast WeatherBug Forecast April 15, 2010 Hurricane Bill, NOAA

Review of 2009 Season Forecast

Forecast Numbers:  named Storms  6-8 Tropical Storms should reach Hurricane status  3-4 Hurricanes of Major Category III classification  Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTCA) near 130% of normal 2009 Season Forecast % What Happened? El Nino conditions developed during June 2009  Increased vertical wind shear in the western Atlantic and Gulf  Persistent troughing over the central Atlantic  Reduced rising motion across the Caribbean

2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season

General Overview

2010 Atlantic Basin Names AlexBonnieColin DanielleEarlFiona GastonHermineIgor JuliaKarlLisa MatthewNicoleOtto PaulaRichardShary TomasVirginieWalter

Atlantic Basin T.C. Distribution

Atlantic Basin Averages

Factors To Review  ENSO – Will there be El Nino or La Nina conditions during Summer and how will that impact hurricane formation?  Atlantic SST – Will the ocean waters be warmer or cooler than average and what role does it play?  Recent Trends – How active have we been in the past years compared to longer term averages?  Analogs – How many storms formed during past hurricane seasons with similar atmospheric conditions, both current and forecast?

El Nino Example La Nina Example ENSO Cycle

Latest Weekly ENSO SST Anomaly

Forecast SST Anomalies - EPAC Increased uncertainty (El Nino vs. La Nina) during prime months (ASO)

Atlantic SST Forecast

Still midway through active, WARM ocean phase that is expected to last ~10 more years Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation

Recent Trends – Warm AMO Phase YearStormsHurricanesMajor Average

 Going back to 1950, identify the best matches to the following characteristics:  Moderate winter-time El Nino that weakened to neutral or La Nina during the calendar year  Seasons during or “on the cusp” of the “warm” phase of the AMO  Seasons where similar conditions in other global patterns existed (NAO, PDO) Analog Years

List of Years and Results YearStormsHurricanesMajor Average

Other Factors to Consider

African Rainfall Potential for more numerous African waves leading to an increased chance of storm formation

African Dust Can play a significant role in suppressing tropical cyclone development, especially in late summer

The Forecast

Summary of Forecast Points  El Nino conditions in EPAC are forecast to weaken, but uncertainty is large in how quickly that will occur  Forecast trends indicate favorable conditions in the Atlantic, mainly later in the summer  Statistics from recent climatology and analog years support a more active than average season

2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast  named Storms (10.8 avg.)  6-9 Hurricanes (6.2 avg.)  3-4 Major Hurricanes: winds 111+ mph (2.7 avg.)  Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTCA): near 140% of normal

CME Group Hurricane Contracts 4 Different types of Hurricane Contracts 8 Different locations for Hurricane Contracts Event Futures, Options, Event Binary Options – Based upon named Hurricanes making landfall anywhere in the Eastern US or reaching the CHI-Cat-in-a-box Galveston-Mobile area Seasonal Futures, Options, Seasonal Binary Options – Based upon the accumulated CHI value for all Hurricanes that make landfall within a specific season Seasonal Maximum Futures, Options, Seasonal Maximum Binary Options, Seasonal Maximum 2 nd Event Binary Options – Based on the CHI value of the largest Hurricane to make landfall within a specific season

CME Group Hurricane Contract Locations Gulf Coast (Brownsville TX to AL/FL Border) Florida (AL/FL Border to Fernandina Beach, FL) Southern Atlantic Coast (Fernandina Beach, FL to NC/VA Border) Northern Atlantic Coast(NC/VA Border to Eastport, ME) Eastern US (Brownsville, TX to Eastport, ME) Gulf & Florida (Brownsville, TX to Fernandina Beach, FL) Florida Gold Coast(Card Sound Bridge, FL to Jupiter Inlet, FL) CHI-Cat-in-a-Box (Galveston-Mobile area)

CME Group Hurricane Contract Specifications Standard Contracts: Contract: $1000 times the respective CME Hurricane Index Tick Size: 0.1 CHI Index Point Tick Value: 0.1 CHI Index point which equals $100 Hours: Sunday through Thursday from 5.00p.m. to 3.15p.m. Chicago time Available: Throughout the hurricane season from January 1 through December 31 Binary Contracts: Contract: $10,000 times the respective CME Hurricane Index Tick Value: 0.01 CHI Index point which equals $1 Hours: Sunday through Thursday from 5.00p.m. to 3.15p.m. Chicago time Available: Throughout the hurricane season from January 1 through December 31