STATE OF CONNECTICUT DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND HOMELAND SECURITY William J. Hackett Director CONNECTICUT HURRICANE HISTORY AND THE 2013 HURRICANE FORECAST Douglas W. Glowacki Emergency Management Program Specialist Division of Emergency Management and Homeland Security Connecticut Conference of Municipalities – May 8, 2013 William P. Shea Deputy Commissioner

STATE OF CONNECTICUT DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND HOMELAND SECURITY “We anticipate that the 2013 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have enhanced activity compared with the climatology. The tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are unlikely. We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.” Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, Colorado State University LAST YEAR WAS BAD, HOWEVER THE CHANCES OF A MAJOR HURRICANE THIS YEAR ARE EVEN HIGHER Connecticut Conference of Municipalities – May 8, 2013 William J. Hackett Director William P. Shea Deputy Commissioner

STATE OF CONNECTICUT DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND HOMELAND SECURITY Connecticut Conference of Municipalities – May 8, 2013 William J. Hackett Director William P. Shea Deputy Commissioner No.StormYearDamage In Billions 1 1Southeast FL, AL Katrina LA, MS, AL Galveston Hurricane Galveston Hurricane Andrew FL Sandy NY, NJ, CT New England Southwest FL Southeast FL Ike TX, LA Total for Top Adjusted for Inflation and Demographics to 2005 and for inflation only to 2012 Dollars How Does Sandy Compare???

STATE OF CONNECTICUT DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND HOMELAND SECURITY Connecticut Conference of Municipalities – May 8, 2013 William J. Hackett Director William P. Shea Deputy Commissioner What’s Causing the Increase in Damage??? 1.More People Living in Larger Homes Along the Coast Year Hurricane Activity Cycle Peaking 3.Sea Level Rise

Storm Tracks That Have Impacted Connecticut Since 1851 A total of 43 Named Storms (3% of the Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) have passed within 60 NM of Hartford Connecticut since On average each named storm that forms in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico has a 3% chance of impacting Connecticut as a Tropical Storm or Hurricane. This list does not include Hybrid Storm Sandy which also caused heavy damage in Connecticut.

STATE OF CONNECTICUT DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND HOMELAND SECURITY William J. Hackett Director The most powerful Hurricanes to strike Connecticut have come from the Cape Verde Islands. Another significant number of hurricanes have formed in the Bahamas or Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Connecticut Conference of Municipalities – May 8, 2013

STATE OF CONNECTICUT DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND HOMELAND SECURITY HURRICANE RETURN PERIODS IN CONNECTICUT (Not Including Hybrid Storms Such as Sandy) CATEGORYWINDSRETURN LAST PERIOD OCCURRED OVERDUE  CAT. I MPH17 Years years Overdue  CAT. II MPH 39 Years 1985 In 11 Years  CAT. III MPH 69 Years 1954 In 11 Years  CAT. IV MPH 155 Years < Years Overdue  CAT. V > 155 MPH 400 Years < 1851 In 248 Years Connecticut Conference of Municipalities – May 8, 2013 William J. Hackett Director William P. Shea Deputy Commissioner

STATE OF CONNECTICUT DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND HOMELAND SECURITY NAMES FOR THE 2013 HURRICANE SEASON Andrea HumbertoOlga Berry IngridPablo Chantal JerryRebekah Dorian KarenSebastien Erin LorenzoTanya Fernand MellissaVan Gabrielle NestorWendy HURRICANE NAMES Connecticut Conference of Municipalities – May 8, 2013 William J. Hackett Director William P. Shea Deputy Commissioner

STATE OF CONNECTICUT DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND HOMELAND SECURITY WILLIAM GRAY’S 2013 HURRICANE FORECAST JUNE 1ST - NOVEMBER 30 TH Updated on April 10, 2013 CATEGORY # OF STORMS NORMAL % of Normal  NAMED STORMS %  HURRICANES %  INTENSE HURRICANES* % u TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY 175% 103% u MAJOR HURRICANE STRIKE PROBABILITIES uEAST COAST 48% 31%Florida to Maine uGULF COAST 47% 30%Texas to Florida * Category III and Above 2013 HURRICANE FORECAST Connecticut Conference of Municipalities – May 8, 2013 William J. Hackett Director William P. Shea Deputy Commissioner

STATE OF CONNECTICUT DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND HOMELAND SECURITY The End Connecticut Conference of Municipalities – May 8, 2013 William J. Hackett Director William P. Shea Deputy Commissioner