HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS Jun 29 2015 HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS

2015 Hurricane Season Update Timothy Garner, NOAA Acting Chief Spaceflight Meteorology Group

2015 Hurricane Season in a Nutshell Lower than average number of storms forecast. Around 8 named storms (70% chance of between 6 to 11) Already two: TS Ana and TS Bill Historical analogs and modelled seasonal conditions favor develop in a belt from the Gulf of Mexico to the central Atlantic north of the usual Main Development Region TS Ana and TS Bill fit this pattern This pattern could allow activity near the higher range of the NOAA predicted number of storms. Does an active June and July mean the rest of the season will be busy too? Statistical correlation is insignificant. Overall early season activity, high or low, has little bearing on the season as a whole. BUT, for June/July storms south of 22N and east of 77W there is a strong association with activity for the rest of the year. This year no named storms in that area may mean below normal season.

Factors for 2015 Season El Nino occurring and forecast to strengthen and last through winter 2015-2016 -- El Nino suppresses hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (La Nina favors hurricanes) -- Primary factor in this season’s outlook Near to slightly below average Sea Surface Temperatures in tropical Atlantic -- 2015 observed June SST pattern in the Atlantic is the opposite of that observed in highly active years. The “Multi-Decadal Signal” not a factor -- Long term cycle of warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures favorable for hurricanes in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) since 1995 may have ended.

Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks 2015 Forecast Group Number of Named Storms Number of Hurricanes Number of Major Hurricanes (cat 3 or larger) Long-Term Average (1981-2010) 12 6.5 2 NOAA (May 27 issue) *included TS Ana 6 – 11 70% chc < normal 20% chc near normal 10% chc > normal 3 – 6 0 - 2 Colorado State (June Issue) (April issue) 8* (4.3-11.7) 7 *included Ana 3 (0.9 – 5.1) 1 (0-2.6) UKMET Office WSI Penn State NC State Coastal Carolina University Cuban Met. Service Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), Inc. 9 8 5 10** **(2 TS 1H landfall) N/A 4 3 1

JSC Impacts Tropical Storm Bill 3 day rainfall totals: B30: 3.38” B421: 3.82” EFD: 2.98” Max wind gust: B30: 43 mph EFD: 30 mph JSC average winds < TS force 8+ JENS messages issued by SMG about Bill Highlighted minor to moderate flooding threat from 4.5” to 6” rain on average with possibility of isolated locations nearby receiving 6 to 10” Wind gusts to tropical storm strength No or neglible storm threat to JSC Additional e-mail updates sent to JSC emergency managers and ISS FD’s Tropical Storm Bill Path (Wikipedia) NOAA/NWS and Houston Chronicle 10-13”

2014 Hurricane Outlooks Verification Named Storms Hurricanes Major ( Cat 3 +) Actual 8 4 2 NOAA / NWS 8-13 3-6 1-2 Colorado State 10 1 Weather Underground 7-9 1-3 0-2 Normal Season 12 6 3

Alan Mather, Chief of Protective Services Hurricane Overview Alan Mather, Chief of Protective Services

Hurricane Preparedness Levels Level 5 – AWARENESS (Jun-1 through Nov 30) Level 4 – CONCERN (impact to JSC in ~72 hrs) Level 3 – PREPARATION (impact in ~48 hrs) Level 2 – CLOSURE (impact to JSC in ~36 hrs) Level 1 – RIDEOUT Assessment Recovery

Decisions and Risks Why Levels 4, 3, 2, 1 don’t always work… Riding it Out Systematic shut down (~ 6 hrs to shutdown plant) vs Hard shut down (boiler recovery) Electrical grid shut down How many stay onsite to ride-out? Entire first wave recovery team 5 man team (recovery team to Merrill Center) Team to run utilities if we leave power up No one (small team to Webster) When does the team leave? Recovery Site Utilities and services Safety Community services (hospitals, gas etc.) Concern to Prep…. Weekend? Late in the day? Holidays? What are schools doing? Speed, size of storm? Certainty of track? Prep to Closure Employees mentally shutting down Different personal timeframes Mandatory evacuation zones

Senior Staff Communications Senior Staff/Away team Telecom Telecom number and passcode GETS card jscsos.com >Senior Staff Info page Login and password ENS Center Closure Notice via text and email HR check-in survey Recall of employees ENS+ VPN access (RSA Token and NDC Password) Recovery TELL EMPLOYEES NOT TO RETURN UNTIL RECALLED

www.jscsos.com Username is your email address. You will be provided a password

ENS Plus JSC’s HR Employee Accountability Tool Senior Staff AH-Bill Kerneckel Senior Staff June 29, 2015

URL - https://ensplus.jsc.nasa.gov Why ENS Plus? ENS Plus is a JSC HR employee accountability tool for Senior Level Management and Supervisors to keep status on their employees after an ENS Survey notification has been sent out. ENS Plus features Rolls up employee survey data into an organization view for supervisors and management. [# safe, # not ok, # of unknown, etc.] Google Map display of employee’s residential address Can report out on simultaneous emergency events Can report on contractor and civil servant survey data Tool will work with any mobile device while on the NASA network. (iPad, iPhone, Android, etc.) Who Can Access ENS Plus? Civil Servant Supervisors Emergency Operations HR Contractor POCs New URL - https://ensplus.jsc.nasa.gov

For questions on JSC ENS Plus please contact: sharon.evans-1@nasa.gov bill.kerneckel@nasa.gov