INTELLIGENCE SERVICES

The Stratfor Advantage Custom Forecasts, Reports and Papers Country and Industry Risk Profiles Threat and Opportunity Assessments Security Assessments Executive Briefings and Seminars Diagnostic Protective Surveillance Assessments Executive Travel Security Reports Virtual Stalker Reports

Protective Intelligence Protective Intelligence (PI) focuses on life-safety issues such as threats, surveillances, kidnappings and potential attacks. Our analysis is used to help mitigate the risks to CEOs, executives, employees and facilities. Recent protective intelligence alerts covered: 1) Russian OC/FSB Surveillances of Western Multi-National Executives in London 2) Iranian/Hezbollah Surveillances of Jewish Facilities in Latin America 3) The Kidnapping of the Protected Child of a High-Net Worth Executive in Mexico City

Excerpt from a recent Protective Intelligence Monitor Stratfor has collected information from a variety of contacts that seems to indicate that the actual number of kidnappings has increased in China in the last several months. We believe that kidnapping has been a consistent problem in China for several years that hasn’t been regularly reported to law enforcement authorities or media outlets. The vast majority of known kidnapping cases in China have involved Chinese nationals and not expats or foreign travelers. We believe that the scale of the kidnapping problem in China has increased in the last several months as the financial crisis has caused some individuals to turn to crime in order to make up for lost income. In most cases, kidnap for ransom techniques are used and the approximate payouts are typically between $5,000-15,000US. Consistent with previous kidnappings in China, most crimes of this nature are not reported to Chinese law enforcement authorities.

Excerpt from a recent Protective Intelligence Monitor Noida, India - At 12:30 p.m. local time Sept. 22, a mob of up to 200 former employees rushed Lalit Kishore Chaudhury, the CEO of an Italian-owned auto parts producer operating in the New Delhi suburb of Noida, and bludgeoned him to death at his company. The former employees had been laid off about two months before the attack and had frequently protested in front of the company, but in spite of this, it does not appear that any security measures were in place in case the situation escalated. The plant was closed for about a week after the killing, and it reopened Sept. 29 with an increased police presence but nevertheless nervous employees. Since the incident, 136 suspected instigators have been arrested. Firms doing business in Noida and the rest of India cannot rely on the Indian government to maintain security within their operations. Some Western companies doing business in India have already begun looking for Western security firms and personnel to provide protection to buildings and executives. Hardened protection, like guards, reinforced gates and security perimeters, and security training to increase situational awareness will be required to reduce the chance of further attacks on CEOs. But extra precautions slow down business and increase costs, making operations more difficult and costly. Increased risk also means increased liability on the part of the companies, which further increases costs. Finally, the psychological impact of attacks like these is considerable. Finding Chaudhury’s replacement will be a difficult task considering the conditions for the position, and other executives like Dwivedi might find it difficult to concentrate on business if they are afraid of being attacked again.

Executive Travel Risk Assessments Terrorism Crime War and Insurgency Political Instability Miscellaneous Threats

Excerpt from recent Travel Risk Assessments Mexico – Widespread police corruption and the deteriorating security situation in Mexico have led to a breakdown of law and order in many parts of Mexico, allowing criminal groups to operate almost freely. Investigations of these criminal enterprises frequently lead back to powerful drug trafficking organizations, known as cartels. Cartel tactics are brutal and have included beheading, dismemberment, torture, the burning of victims and the killing of family members, contributing to the very dangerous security situation throughout the country. Furthermore, the aggressiveness of cartel enforcers and their lack of regard for human life often cause civilian casualties, though they do not typically target those who are not involved in the drug trade. The death toll in drug and cartel related murders in Mexico reached 5,000 Dec 3. By comparison, only 2,500 died in 2007, marking a significant increase in cartel violence throughout the country. In 2008 alone, Mexico suffered more deaths from drug-related violence than all coalition deaths in Iraq since the war’s beginning in 2003.

Business Risk Assessments Terrorism and Insurrection Crime War and Insurgency Political Environment Business Environment (to include the regulatory environment) Labor Unrest and Action Miscellaneous Threats

Excerpt from recent Business Risk Assessment of Russia The Tambov group is still very much in control of the transportation networks for both legal and illegal goods in the St. Petersburg area, though their influence over the political situation within the city has waned somewhat in the last two years. While they still maintain overall control of the shipping routes and many other transportation nodes in the city, their loss of political control has meant that they do not have the ability to “get things done” inside the city as they once did. The Tambov group has been used at times to help clear bureaucratic hurdles for businesses to establish or expand operations inside the city. While services like this are still available in limited cases, they are no longer central to the group’s operations. That said, it is important to remember that the group does still control most transportation methods into and out of the city, including road transportation nodes and shipping access. Businesses should also note that while the Tambov group and other organized criminal organizations have their own operations to transport illicit goods to support themselves, they also insert themselves into the operations of legitimate businesses and other organizations.

Stratfor.com Website Services Whether your interest is in international affairs, risk management, the global markets or security and terrorism issues, access to Stratfor’s exclusive web portal keeps you informed and connected with: Daily situation reports on political, economic, military and security events In-depth analysis focused on current events and their relevance for future developments Alerts of breaking intelligence whenever critical events occur Coverage of terrorism groups, practices and security developments An unparalleled archive with over 10 years of historical data

Contact Stratfor Korena Zucha Briefer-Corporate Intelligence Services 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900 Austin, TX Office number: Fax Number: