SMART Sustainable Management of Scarce Resources in the Coastal Zone Kick-off meeting Cairo, 5-6 Jan. 2003

Coordinator: Nelson Lourenço (UNL) (Sociology) Researchers: Luís Rodrigues (Geography) Maria do Rosário Jorge (Sociology) Carlos Russo Machado (Geography) Patrícia Melo (Administrative support) Portuguese research team UATLA

UNDERSTAND SOCIAL SUB-SYSTEMS AND NATURAL SUB- SYSTEMS INTERACTIONS IN THE FRAME OF GLOBAL SYSTEM Social systems are changing at the same time as they modify natural systems Understand the environmental impacts of the human actions at different levels of analysis Understand the problems behind the changes and the effects over the agents present in those areas Address the unifying issue of social, economic and environmental sustainability UATLA

Land Use and Land Cover Changes Land Use and Land Cover Changes Sustainable Water Management Sustainable Water Management Coastal Areas Management Coastal Areas Management Sustainable Tropical Forest Management Sustainable Tropical Forest Management Policies Evaluation and Decision Processes Policies Evaluation and Decision Processes Territory and Development Territory and Development UATLA Departing from this frame, the research embraces the following subjects

Monitoring and managing changes in rural marginal areas: a comparative research (MARGIN) Finished in 1997 Qualification of Human Resources and the Development of Peripheral regions (QRH) Finished in 1998 Land use change: Methodological approach to understand the interactions Nature/Society in coastal areas (ALENCOAST) Finished in 1999 Spatial Impact of Rural Environment EU Policies: a regional comparative analysis of land use(SIMLUC) Finished in 2000 Measuring, Monitoring and Managing Sustainability: the coastal dimension in India (COASTIN)Finished in Measuring, Monitoring and Managing Sustainability: the coastal dimension in India (COASTIN) Finished in 2002 Multi-sectoral, Integrated and Operational decision support system for sustainable use of water resources at the catchment scale (MULINO) To be concluded in 2003 Decision Support System for Sustainable Ecosystem Management in Atlantic Rain Forest Rural Areas (ECOMAN) To be concluded in 2004 UATLA projects related to the SMART UATLA

Monitoring and managing changes in rural marginal areas: a comparative research (MARGIN) Finished in 1997 Qualification of Human Resources and the Development of Peripheral regions (QRH) Finished in 1998 Land use change: Methodological approach to understand the interactions Nature/Society in coastal areas (ALENCOAST) Finished in 1999 Spatial Impact of Rural Environment EU Policies: a regional comparative analysis of land use(SIMLUC) Finished in 2000 Measuring, Monitoring and Managing Sustainability: the coastal dimension in India (COASTIN) Finished in 2002 Multi-sectoral, Integrated and Operational decision support system for sustainable use of water resources at the catchment scale (MULINO) To be concluded in 2003 Decision Support System for Sustainable Ecosystem Management in Atlantic Rain Forest Rural Areas (ECOMAN) To be concluded in 2004 UATLA projects related to the SMART UATLA

SMART WorkPlan Role of UATLA WP 02 Socio-economic framework and guidelines Lead by UATLA with the cooperation of FEEM WP 10 Comparative policy analysis Lead by FEEM with the cooperation of UATLA

WP 02 Socio-economic framework and guidelines General objective The analysis of the local water policies and regulations will be the basis of the comparative analysis between EU and Mediterranean countries, as an approach to the study of sustainable coastal development The main reference for sustainable water management in the EU is the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC) Therefore, to achieve the general objective we have to analyse the socio-economic dimensions considered in the Water Framework Directive (WFD)

WP 02 Socio-economic framework and guidelines Specific objectives: Population, demographic and migration policy analysis - Task 1 Population, demographic and migration policy analysis - Task 1 Political and economic options adopted for the study areas - Task 2 Political and economic options adopted for the study areas - Task 2 Competing water uses - Task 3 Competing water uses - Task 3 Economic analysis of water resources - Task 4 Economic analysis of water resources - Task 4

WP 02 - Task 1 Population, demographic and migration policy analysis Population analysis, including migration issues and projections (evolution of the demographic variables and the trends observed in the near past) Analysis of demographic policies influencing the growth trends

Data needs for the population analysis (by municipality) Resident population by gender and age groups (five years) – Three census: 1981, 1991 and 2001 (?) (by the smallest administrative unit?) Urban and rural population distribution (by the smallest administrative unit?) Number of deaths by age groups: four years around 1981, 1991 and 2001 Number of births by gender: four years around 1981, 1991 and 2001 Inmigration data: internal and outbound between 1981 and 2001 (by year?) Emigration data: internal and outbound between 1981 and 2001 (by year?) WP 02 - Task 1 Population, demographic and migration policy analysis

Data needs for demographic policy analysis Migration policies Limiting or free migration policies can have different effects on the population growth Birth policies Birth control policy or promoting the increase of fertility Health policies Control of specific diseases or general improvement of the health system WP 02 - Task 1 Population, demographic and migration policy analysis

Methodology Indicators Indicators Demographic (population density, natural and migration growth rate, elderly rate...) Documental analysis Documental analysis Analysis of the policies and their influence in the demographic trends Population projections based on: Population projections based on: Business as usual scenario resulting from the growth rate in the last 20 years Scenarios resulting from the demographic policy analysis Scenarios resulting from urban/rural population trends of change WP 02 - Task 1 Population, demographic and migration policy analysis

The level and the pattern of economic growth is, among other causes, a result of the existing policies The task will analyse these policies and the options for economic growth that can be at the origin of competing uses of water WP 02 - Task 2 Political and economic options adopted for the study areas

The level and the pattern of economic growth and its consequences in terms of labour demand will also be important issues to analyse: Are the economic activities localized in the urban-rural interface more labour demanding? Are the economic activities localized in the urban-rural interface more labour demanding? Which are the pressures caused by increasing demand? Which are the pressures caused by increasing demand? In what way is the political structure able to intervene? In what way is the political structure able to intervene? The planning and management instruments in the regions studied and the levels in which decisions are taken will be studied in this task WP 02 - Task 2 Political and economic options adopted for the study areas

Data needs Water policies evolution (time frames depending on the policy issues in each case): Water policies Water policies Coastal zone policies Coastal zone policies Other policies (disciplinary, spatial and environmental) Other policies (disciplinary, spatial and environmental) Land cover and land cover changes results - thematic maps including (time frames ?): Urban areas Urban areas Industrial areas Industrial areas Forest area Forest area Agricultural land (rainfed and irrigated areas; pastures) Agricultural land (rainfed and irrigated areas; pastures) Agro-forest land Agro-forest land Barren land Barren land WP 02 - Task 2 Political and economic options adopted for the study areas

Data needs (by municipality) Economic activity (more than one moment, depending on the land cover time frame): Employment by main activity sectors (primary, secondary and tertiary), giving especial importance to the more significant activities Employment by main activity sectors (primary, secondary and tertiary), giving especial importance to the more significant activities Agriculture (aquaculture?) activity indicators: number and size of farms, characteristics of the labour force (familiar and non-familiar, part-time and full-time farmers, qualified and non-qualified workers), subsistence and market oriented and income distribution by type of production Agriculture (aquaculture?) activity indicators: number and size of farms, characteristics of the labour force (familiar and non-familiar, part-time and full-time farmers, qualified and non-qualified workers), subsistence and market oriented and income distribution by type of production Industrial activity indicators: type and number of units, income distribution by main industrial activity groups and market orientation and technological and training level Industrial activity indicators: type and number of units, income distribution by main industrial activity groups and market orientation and technological and training level Tertiary activity indicators (isolating commercial activities, tourism and other services): type and number of units and employment distribution, contribution to regional product, number of tourists, national and international tourists, seasonality Tertiary activity indicators (isolating commercial activities, tourism and other services): type and number of units and employment distribution, contribution to regional product, number of tourists, national and international tourists, seasonality WP 02 - Task 2 Political and economic options adopted for the study areas

Data needs Environmental and spatial planning and management tools influencing the case study area Strategic and regulatory instruments at national, regional and municipal levels Strategic and regulatory instruments at national, regional and municipal levels Other important economic and regional policies Regional development plans Regional development plans Identification and characterisation of the different levels of decision related to the water management National National Regional Regional Municipality/Local Municipality/Local WP 02 - Task 2 Political and economic options adopted for the study areas

Methodology Indicators Indicators Urban and tourism pressure Economic (e.g. tourism...) Documental analysis Documental analysis Analysis of the policies and their influence in the water use Fulfill a matrix with the policy frame of the last years (UATLA will provide the guidelines to the matrix) Water demand characterisation Water demand characterisation Water domestic consumption per person Water consumption by industrial units (by type of units) Water consumption in agriculture and/or aquaculture (by type of production per area) Water consumption per tourist WP 02 - Task 2 Political and economic options adopted for the study areas

Identification of water demands by each type of use Characterisation of the various actors and interests related to the water uses Analysis of the economic and demographic structure Rural/urban interface could be analysed in terms of the multi- disciplinary conflicts resulting from the water demands Rural/urban interface could be analysed in terms of the multi- disciplinary conflicts resulting from the water demands The previous analysis wil be used to identify current and projected water demands The previous analysis wil be used to identify current and projected water demands WP 02 - Task 3 Competing water uses

Methodology Analysis of the data collected in the previous tasks Group discussion with the stakeholders representing the different water uses/demands (UATLA will provide the guidelines to the group discussion and a matrix of analysis) Water demand scenarios: Business as usual scenario resulting from the consumption of the last years Business as usual scenario resulting from the consumption of the last years Scenarios resulting from the water price changes Scenarios resulting from the water price changes Scenarios resulting from the population projections (e.g. urban/rural consumption) Scenarios resulting from the population projections (e.g. urban/rural consumption) Scenarios resulting from the development of agriculture, industry, tourism… Scenarios resulting from the development of agriculture, industry, tourism… WP 02 - Task 3 Competing water uses

The most important issue is the evaluation of the costs of water among the different water users Water price is set on a political base and therefore full- cost pricing of water services is often not achieved: Pay too little (i.e. agriculture) Pay too little (i.e. agriculture) Value of water is not calculated according to water use Value of water is not calculated according to water use Pay too high a price (i.e. civil, industry) Pay too high a price (i.e. civil, industry) WP 02 - Task 4 Economic analysis of water resources

WP 02 Deliverables D02.1: Identification of problem issues (Summary Report) D02.2: Guidelines for the socio-economic analysis: issues and indicators

WP 02 Deliverables D Identification of problem issues (public report) UATLA summary report - September 2003 UATLA summary report - September 2003 Partners inputs - August 2003 Partners inputs - August 2003 Task 1 and 2 – April 2003 Task 3 – June 2003 Task 4 – August 2003 (FEEM?)

WP 02 Socio-economic framework and guidelines D Guidelines for the socio-economic analysis: issues and indicators (restricted report) Guidelines presentation (methodology and data requirements) - Cairo’s meeting: January 2003 Guidelines presentation (methodology and data requirements) - Cairo’s meeting: January 2003 Report on methodology and data requirements (including feedback of the Cairo’s discussion results): February 2003 Report on methodology and data requirements (including feedback of the Cairo’s discussion results): February 2003 Guidelines to the group discussion and a matrix of analysis: April 2003 Guidelines to the group discussion and a matrix of analysis: April 2003 Socio-economic Indicators input to the database: July 2003 (?) Socio-economic Indicators input to the database: July 2003 (?) Final deliverable report: September 2003 Final deliverable report: September 2003 Problems identified by each team Limits and potentialities of the socio-economic analysis Links to other WP Suggestions for a deeper analysis

Comparative policy analysis WP 10 Comparative Policy Analysis Data required for the case studies WP 4 Data Compilation and Analysis Quantitative and qualitative indicators WP 3 Analitical Tools, Models WP 2 Socio-economic analysis WP 02 Linkages with the other WorkPackages WP 1 Requirements and constraints analysis Key local actors identification Definition of data and document requirements Guidelines WP 5-9 Regional Case Studies Case Study Results

WP 02 Links with WP1 WP2 WP1 (February 2003) Definition of data and document requirements Definition of data and document requirements WP1 WP2 (March 2003) Key local actors identification Key local actors identification List of policies, issues and problems for each case List of policies, issues and problems for each case Identification of data constraints Identification of data constraints

WP 02 Links with WP3 WP2 WP3 (September 2003) Indicators for use in the quantitative analysis tools (administrative level of analysis: municipality) Indicators for use in the quantitative analysis tools (administrative level of analysis: municipality) Inputs to build symbolic indicators (criteria) to be used in the policy assessment Inputs to build symbolic indicators (criteria) to be used in the policy assessment Inputs for policy scenario analysis Inputs for policy scenario analysis

WP 02 Links with WP4 WP2 WP4 (September 2003) Socio-economic data Population Institutional setting, key actors Regulatory framework Basic economic and development indicators Policy framework and development plans/strategies

WP 02 links with WP5-9 WP2 WP5-9 Guidelines for socio-economic analysis – January/February 2003 Guidelines for socio-economic analysis – January/February 2003 WP5-9 WP2 Task 1 (Report on population dynamics and demographic policy analysis) - April 2003 Task 1 (Report on population dynamics and demographic policy analysis) - April 2003 Task 2 (Report on Political and economic options adopted for the study areas) - April 2003 Task 2 (Report on Political and economic options adopted for the study areas) - April 2003 Task 3 (Report on competing water uses) - June 2003 Task 3 (Report on competing water uses) - June 2003 Task 4 (Report on Economic analysis of water resources) - August 2003 (FEEM?) Task 4 (Report on Economic analysis of water resources) - August 2003 (FEEM?)

WP 02 Links with WP10 WP2 WP10 Contribution to comparative policy analysis of case studies (D10.2)