© 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Global Risk Assessment Presented by: Gerald J. Komisar Vice President Global Risk Assessments May 07, 2004 Miami, Florida Confidential The World at Risk: Threats to International Business The World at Risk: Threats to International Business
1 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Global economic downturn and recovery Dramatic changes in the world in the past few years have impacted our lives and businesses in profound ways. Expansion of worldwide risks Globalization Perceptions of the United States
2 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. A discussion of geo-political and security risks Perspectives on terrorism and global security threats Regional “hotspots” Understanding and managing global risks
3 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. A Global Terrorism Assessment Status Report International cooperation Terrorists under pressure Conclusions Homeland defense
4 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. A Global Terrorism Assessment Current Threats Al Qaeda Regional groups Preferred targets Terrorist weapons
5 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Middle East Iran Oman Yemen Turkey UAE Jordan Israel Syria Lebanon Iraq Kuwait Saudi Arabia Situation in Iraq Israel - Palestine Regional attitudes Regional Issues Affecting Global Security
6 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Southeast Asia Thailand Malaysia Sing. Indonesia Philippines Problem areas Prospects Regional Issues Affecting Global Security
7 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Europe Regional Issues Affecting Global Security United Kingdom Spain Italy Greece Poland Hungary
8 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Africa Regional Issues Affecting Global Security Algeria Tunisia Morocco Somalia Kenya Tanzania Nigeria
9 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. South Asia India Pakistan Afghanistan Kashmir Afghanistan Pakistan India-Pakistan Relations Regional Issues Affecting Global Security
10 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Asia Korea Greater China North Korea South Korea Taiwan Hong Kong Russia China Japan Regional Issues Affecting Global Security
11 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Uruguay Paraguay Bolivia Peru Ecuador Colombia Venezuela Regional stability issues Security factors Regional Issues Affecting Global Security
© 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Understanding and assessing business risks Developing effective risk management solutions Outlook Enduring threat of terrorism and geopolitical risk
13 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. EBB Home Page
14 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Featured Article
15 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Regional Page
16 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Industry Page
17 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Custom Report
18 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Archive
© 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Global Risk Assessment Presented by: Gerald J. Komisar Vice President Global Risk Assessments May 07, 2004 Miami, Florida Confidential The World at Risk: Threats to International Business The World at Risk: Threats to International Business