AIM/Material Model AIM/Material Model Application to India and Japan Ashish RANA National Institute for Environmental Studies Session 7: Asia-Pacific Integrated.

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Presentation transcript:

AIM/Material Model AIM/Material Model Application to India and Japan Ashish RANA National Institute for Environmental Studies Session 7: Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM): Applications / Case Studies APEIS Capacity Building Workshop on Integrated Environment Assessment in the Asia Pacific Region October 24-26, 2002 Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi, India

Coverage in this workshop Summary (Session 4)Summary (Session 4) For understanding AIM/Material model –What is AIM/Material model? –Model formulation –Necessary data for simulation –Future scenario Training (Session 5)Training (Session 5) –Operation of AIM/Material model Application (This session)Application (This session) –Application of AIM/Material model to India and Japan

Application of AIM/Material model ModelModel –Basic economic structure is the same as the training model –The differences are as follows; Disaggregate the environmental industryDisaggregate the environmental industry More detailed solid waste typeMore detailed solid waste type Three types of waste treatment: direct final disposal, direct reuse, and intermediate treatment.Three types of waste treatment: direct final disposal, direct reuse, and intermediate treatment.

Overview of complex model CapitalLaborEnergyPollution Other intermediate input Solid waste Household Investment Final consumption Resource input Env. industry Disposal Reuse Waste management Resource input Final disposal site CO2 Environmental Investment Intermediate treatment Government Tax, subsidy, public service, and public investment Production sector Market

Application of AIM/Material model Application to IndiaApplication to India –simulation of toxic waste reduction –simulation of mitigation of economic impact by introducing countermeasures Application to JapanApplication to Japan –simulation of CO2 reduction (Kyoto target) –simulation of final disposal of solid waste –simulation of mitigation of economic impact by introducing countermeasures

Sectors of AIM/Material [India] - Application of AIM/Material to India - Application of AIM/Material to India -

Waste categories of AIM/Material [India] - Application of AIM/Material to India - Application of AIM/Material to India - Left column represents industrial waste classification. Right column represents both industrial and municipal waste classification.

Waste to goods in AIM/Material [India] - Application of AIM/Material to India - Application of AIM/Material to India -

Scenarios for policy analysis using AIM/Material [India] Scenario 1 –Reference scenario – no interventions Scenario 2 –Toxic Constraint Scenario – limit the discharge of toxic wastes. Scenario 3 –Countermeasures – environmental investment with waste management efficiency improvement - Application of AIM/Material to India - Application of AIM/Material to India -

GDP change of reference case - Application of AIM/Material to India - Application of AIM/Material to India -

Trajectory of final disposal waste - Application of AIM/Material to India - Application of AIM/Material to India -

GDP change due to toxic waste constraint and GDP mitigation by introduction of policy - Application of AIM/Material to India - Application of AIM/Material to India Year Rs. billion (Constant prices) toxic waste constraint without policy toxic waste constraint with policy

Output changes in each sector in 2010 over reference case - Application of AIM/Material to India - Application of AIM/Material to India -

Example of AIM/Material Model Application to IndiaApplication to India –simulation of toxic waste reduction –simulation of mitigation of economic impact by introducing countermeasures Application to JapanApplication to Japan –simulation of CO2 reduction (Kyoto target) –simulation of final disposal of solid waste –simulation of mitigation of economic impact by introducing countermeasures

Sectors and commodities of AIM/Material [Japan] - Application of AIM/Material to Japan - Application of AIM/Material to Japan -

Classification of solid waste in AIM/Material [Japan] Yellow cells represent both industrial waste and municipal waste classification. White cells represent industrial waste classification. - Application of AIM/Material to Japan - Application of AIM/Material to Japan -

GDP change of Japan in reference case - Application of AIM/Material to Japan - Application of AIM/Material to Japan -

GDP loss due to CO2 reduction & final disposal reduction of wastes GDP loss 0.2% of GDP - Application of AIM/Material to Japan - Application of AIM/Material to Japan -

Mitigation of GDP loss by various countermeasures GDP loss Mitigation by env. industry & investment Mitigation by technology improvement Mitigation by subsidy to waste treatment Mitigation by green consumption - Application of AIM/Material to Japan - Application of AIM/Material to Japan -

Future activities Application of AIM/Material to other countriesApplication of AIM/Material to other countries Simulation of other countermeasuresSimulation of other countermeasures Linkage to AIM/Emission and AIM/CGELinkage to AIM/Emission and AIM/CGE Including other environments such as natural assetsIncluding other environments such as natural assets