Traditional Planning It’s largely deterministic It’s largely deterministic Process relies on a single most likely alternative future forecast Process relies on a single most likely alternative future forecast Desire for single right answerDesire for single right answer Often anchored in presentOften anchored in present Adversarial--legitimate differences in views of uncertain futureAdversarial--legitimate differences in views of uncertain future Forecasts are critical to planning and analysis Forecasts are critical to planning and analysis Both mostly done in deterministic contextBoth mostly done in deterministic context Maybe with some sensitivity analysis Maybe with some sensitivity analysis

Forecasting & Comparing Criteria Plan Effects Baseline Risk Existing Risk Future Risk if No Action Future Risk with Management Option A Before & After Comparison With & Without Option Comparison TargetGap Analysis Time In fact, there are many without conditions that are possible

Most Likely Future Condition We labor in uncertainty We labor in uncertainty A single forecast of the future will be wrong A single forecast of the future will be wrong Thus, planning is often based on what could be not what will be Thus, planning is often based on what could be not what will be What could be is wide open to debate What could be is wide open to debate The process is far more adversarial than it needs to be The process is far more adversarial than it needs to be

Scenario Planning Began with US military Began with US military Developed in second half of 20 th century (Europe) Developed in second half of 20 th century (Europe) Result of failure of traditional planning Result of failure of traditional planning Deterministic view of futureDeterministic view of future Forecasts were wrongForecasts were wrong

When to Use Scenario Planning Scenario Planning Deterministic Planning Standard Decision Making Consequence UncertaintyMuch Grave Little Minor

Scenario Planning Steps Identify 2 key drivers of future uncertainty Identify 2 key drivers of future uncertainty Use them to identify 4 distinct alternative without condition forecasts Use them to identify 4 distinct alternative without condition forecasts Evaluate plans against each of the without project conditions Evaluate plans against each of the without project conditions Consider an example developed for shoreline erosion in Barrow, Alaska Consider an example developed for shoreline erosion in Barrow, Alaska

MCDA 3 MCDA 2 MCDA 4 MCDA 1 Narratives, written for each scenario, will develop the plan effects in relation to each possible future.

Narratives True to problem statement in a story-like way True to problem statement in a story-like way Each addresses: Each addresses: erosion problems and storm regimeerosion problems and storm regime fate of infrastructurefate of infrastructure effect on social fabriceffect on social fabric These are multiple without conditions These are multiple without conditions

Goodbye Barrow Tells the story of severe erosion rates and beach recovery Tells the story of severe erosion rates and beach recovery increasing evidence of global warmingincreasing evidence of global warming retreating ice coverretreating ice cover more frequent and more severe stormsmore frequent and more severe storms retreat of shoreline claims road against ineffective local measuresretreat of shoreline claims road against ineffective local measures occasional ivu even more hazardous to the communityoccasional ivu even more hazardous to the community utility interruptions begin to occurutility interruptions begin to occur people with means movepeople with means move quality of life suffersquality of life suffers ……..and so on.……..and so on.

Evaluate plans For each scenario evaluate planning objectives and criteria For each scenario evaluate planning objectives and criteria Erosion related impactsErosion related impacts Infrastructure riskInfrastructure risk Social consequencesSocial consequences Benefits and costsBenefits and costs Environmental impactsEnvironmental impacts

Two Basic Ways to Proceed Evaluate each plan against each of the four scenarios (using traditional evaluation, MCDA, risk ranking) Evaluate each plan against each of the four scenarios (using traditional evaluation, MCDA, risk ranking) Results of this evaluation compared across plans for the purpose of selecting a plan Results of this evaluation compared across plans for the purpose of selecting a plan Choose plan that does best (robustness) regardless of the future realized? Choose plan that does best (robustness) regardless of the future realized?

Two Basic Ways to Proceed Choose one of the four scenarios as most likely Choose one of the four scenarios as most likely Proceed as usual through the selection process Proceed as usual through the selection process Evaluate the recommended plan against the other three remaining scenarios Evaluate the recommended plan against the other three remaining scenarios Unacceptable results in any of these mean plan must be reformulated to mitigate these effects or another plan is selected Unacceptable results in any of these mean plan must be reformulated to mitigate these effects or another plan is selected