Residential Lighting Technical Subcommittee Ryan Firestone Regional Technical Forum March 26, AM

Overview RTF Residential UES measure is due for an update – Sunset date June 30, 2015 – New ENERGY STAR specification v1.1. (September, 2014) – technology neutral – New market data (NEEA/BPA) – Estimates of extent and impact of Commercial participants in retail programs (SBW/PSE/NorthWestern Energy) 2

Presentation Outline Today’s Objective: The purpose of this call is for the Subcommittee to provide input on the analysis methodology and assumptions for the residential lighting (bulbs) update that will be presented to the RTF at the June 16 meeting. Measure identifiers - – shifting to EISA lumen bins – keeping lamp type categories the same as current measure Baseline perspective - shifting from a socket count (RBSA) baseline to sales data and accounting for large differences in lifetime across technologies Overview of BPA/NEEA baseline methodology (deeper dive in second half of meeting) EISA Phase 2 of the standard (45 lumen/Watt) – What to assume halogens in today's current practice baseline become in 2020 (hypothetical minimally compliant lamp? CFL?) – adjusting the baseline for savings from 2020 onward Hours of Use (Residential) – shifting from California data to RBSA Commercial participants in retail programs – review of available data and knowledge gaps – sensitivity of results to the extent of Commercial participation Lamp costs – review of current measure costs and available data for update Extrapolating LED cost and performance to expected time measure will be in use (10/15 – 10/16 for BPA) Lifetime – review of RTF decision on modeling the effect of stored lamps for current measure Details of the BPA/NEEA sales-based baseline 3

Measure Identifiers 4

Lumen Bins The RTF’s current measure uses the following lumen bins – 250 to 664 lumens – 665 to 1439 lumens – 1440 to 2600 lumens However, the EISA standard uses the following lumen bins – less than 310 lumens – 310 to 749 lumens – 750 to 1049 lumens – 1050 to 1489 lumens – 1490 to 2600 lumens RTF Staff/CAT will be preparing the measure update using the EISA lumen bins. Measures for the lumen category will be developed, as this is an EISA exempt category with low efficient lamp saturation. 5

Lamp Types As part of the April 2014 Residential Lighting measure update, Staff/CAT consider lamp type categorization and developed the following: – Decorative and Mini-Base – General Purpose and Dimmable – Globe – Reflectors and Outdoor – Three-Way Staff/CAT demonstrated that further aggregation could lead to significant variation in actual savings depending on the program mix of lamp types – E.g., number of globe vs. decorative lamps Staff/CAT will prepare the measure update using the same lamp type categories RTF presentation April 23, pptx pptx Subcommittee presentations from March

Delivery Mechanisms – Retail – Mail by Request – Unsolicited Mail – Give away – Direct Install – NEEA Socket Count 7 Lost opportunity (Current practice) Retrofit (Pre- conditions)

Room Type Groups (Direct Install and NEEA Socket Count only) Hours of Use (HOU) and Room Type Groups – Current measure uses KEMA data from CA, supplemented by DOE data – Propose using RBSA metered data – Significantly Higher HOU for Family/Kitchen/Living Room suggests separating High and Moderate Use room type groups. 8

Baseline Perspective 9

Baseline: Shift from sockets to sales Current RTF measure uses a socket count (RBSA) as baseline Proposed measure will use a sales baseline We expect a significant difference in baseline between these two types of data because of differences in lifetime across technologies – Inc/hal (1,000 hrs), CFL (5,000 to 10,000 hrs), LED (25,000 to 30,000 hrs) – Sales data should show proportionally more incandescent/halogens than socket count because they burn out much quicker than CFLs and LEDs. 10

Baseline: Shift from sockets to sales Do we need to adjust the sales data to account for this variation in lifetime? Depends on your perspective 11 Perspective There are inc/hal sockets and CFL/LED sockets. Inc/hal are primarily replaced by inc/hal, CFLs/LEDs are primarily replaced by CFLs/LEDs. Replacement lamp type is independent of prior lamp type. Each time a consumer purchases a lamp, they make a new decision about what type of lamp to purchase. What this implies Halogen sockets are converted to CFL/LED sockets through program intervention and/or other signals. CFL/LED sockets are rarely converted to halogen sockets. A halogen replacement lamp is just as likely in a socket with a burnt-out halogen as with a burnt out CFL. A CFL replacement lamp is just as likely in a socket with a burnt out halogen as with a burnt out CFL. How current practice is determined Socket count (e.g., RBSA). This tells you how many halogen sockets and how many CFL sockets there are. Sales data. This tells you how many times a decision was made to fill a socket (after correcting for serial installation, which we now think isn't common), and how frequently halogen was selected and how frequently CFL was selected. This is effectively a socket count of recently filled sockets. Comments This is how the RTF treats other Current Practice measures: each recent sale is a decision, and distribution of sales is used to determine the average performance and cost of these choices. RTF CAT/staff lean towards this perspective, for consistency with other RTF measures

BPA/NEEA Sales-based Baseline 12

BPA/NEEA Sales-based Baseline Data – Sales data of major retailers from Neilsen in 2014 – NEEA Shelf survey (January 2015) – Estimates of market share by store category (analysis based on data from 2014 ENERGY STAR Partners meeting) – Estimates of market share by retailer based on NW store count and number of lamps displayed per store – Sales data use for retailers where available. Supplemented with shelf survey data. – Analysis by Cadeo Group for Bonneville, on going 13 If the sales analysis from BPA/Cadeo Group is not available in time or in sufficient detail for the measure update, the Staff/CAT can use the shelf-survey data as a proxy.

EISA

EISA 2020: 45 lumens/Watt 15 Phase 2 of the EISA lighting standards effective in 2020 – 45 l/W for all non-exempt lamps What should the baseline be from 2020 onward? – Federal standard (45 l/W, 1,000 hour lifetime) No product exists on the market with these specifications – Lowest cost/worst performing compliant technology (CFL – 65 l/W, ~5,000 hours lifetime) Efficacy

EISA 2020: Modelling in measure workbook 16 The current version of ProCost does not have the capability to model stepped savings (i.e., one savings value until 2020, a smaller one from 2020 onward) RTF CAT/Staff proposed approach – Do two ProCost runs: One from present to 2020 One from 2020 onward – Compute overall cost effectiveness from total TRC Costs and total TRC Benefits – In the measure table, show the average annual savings over the lifetime of the measure Add additional columns to show savings from 2016 to 2019, savings from 2020 onward – Add an explanation sheet at the beginning of the workbook to explain the stepped shape of savings – In this way, the RTF provides programs with first year savings, out-year savings, average lifetime savings, and cost-effectiveness. Programs can determine which savings values are appropriate for them.

Hours of Use 17

Hours of Use (Residential) 18 Current RTF measures use hours of use (HOU) measured in California in 2008/2009 – 8452 fixtures at 1233 sites – “Final Evaluation Report: Upstream Lighting Program Volume 1” CALMAC Study ID: CPU – ghtingEvaluationReport_Vol1_CALMAC_3.pdf ghtingEvaluationReport_Vol1_CALMAC_3.pdf Hours of use, by room type, are applied to each lighting record in RBSA to determine average hours of use by lamp type/lumen bin

Hours of Use (Residential) 19 RBSA study included lighting hours of use metering – source/reports/residential-building-stock-assessment- -metering-study.pdf?sfvrsn=6 source/reports/residential-building-stock-assessment- -metering-study.pdf?sfvrsn=6 – NEEA, April 28, 2014 REPORT #E Residential Building Stock Assessment: Metering Study – 874 fixtures Staff/CAT propose using this more recent data, from the region, rather than the California data.

Hours of Use (Residential) 20 Source: NEEA, April 28, 2014 REPORT #E Residential Building Stock Assessment: Metering Study

Commercial Participants in Retail Programs 21

Accounting for Commercial Participants 22 Some lamps sold through retail, upstream programs are going to commercial customers How do we account for this in our retail measures? – Data: PSE/SBW/RIA – Phone survey of 46 high-volume participating retailers in upstream program (74% of program volume) – 22% of CFLs, 20% of LEDs sold to commercial customers – Adjust for less commercial sales at lower volume retailers: 17% CFLs, 20% LEDs NorthWestern Energy/SBW/RIA – Phone survey of 8 CFL buy-down participants – 19% commercial sales BPA/SBW Commercial Lighting – Research Plan for Commercial: Lighting - Non-Residential Lighting Retrofits UES measure: – NEEA – CBSA – 580 observations of screw-based fixtures in buildings, count of fixtures in subspace, weighting up to site and region – Data quality concerns need to be addressed: some estimated lumens per lamp and hours of use values are suspect

Accounting for Commercial Participants 23 Consider weighted average hours of use for General Purpose lamp, lumens. – Residential hours of use: 2.0 hrs/day (analysis based on RBSA socket count and metered study) – Commercial hours of use: vary from 0 to 10 hrs/day – Commercial share of participation: vary from 0 to 20% Likely range of resulting hours of use is between 2.0 and 3.2. This is 2.6 +/- 23%. Savings are directly proportional to HOU

Accounting for Commercial Participants 24 – Likely effect is large, but uncertain What is the baseline for commercial screw-base lamps? – CBSA provides a socket count, but would require data cleaning/QC before being useful – CBSA does not tell us which lamps were purchased from residential-oriented retailers What portion of sales are they, by lamp type and lumen bin? – SBW has looked at this at the program level, not finer detail What are the hours of use of these lamps, by lamp type and lumen bin? – Ongoing BPA Commercial Lighting research may eventually inform this – Without quantifying this effect, we don’t have the certainty needed for a Proven retail measure CAT/Staff are preparing a Research Strategy to address this knowledge gap and support a Planning measure

Lamp Costs 25

Lamp Costs 26 Baseline lamps costs: NEEA shelf data (January 2015), data not yet available Measure Cost: Idaho Power program data (Q1 2015)

Extrapolating LED Cost and Performance Data to Time of Implementation 27

LED Cost and Performance Extrapolation 28 Current measure (RTF approved in April 2014) includes extrapolation of existing LED cost and performance data to time of measure implementation to reflect the rapidly changing market Staff/CAT propose to use same approach this time Sources: Efficacy: “SSL Pricing and Efficacy Trend Analysis for Utility Program Planning” PNNL 2013 Cost: "Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications” Navigant Consulting for US DOE, August 2014

Lifetime 29

Storage Rate Slides from October 2013 CFL Presentation

Accounting for Storage Rate To date, the RTF has not counted savings for energy efficient equipment that is installed later on. But there is evidence that most CFLs eventually get installed, probably within a few years of purchase or receipt. How should the RTF account for stored-but-eventually-used products? 31

Storage Rate – Lifetime Guidelines Measure Lifetime Measure lifetime is defined as the median number of years during which at least half the deliveries of a measure are in place and operable, i.e., produce savings. Measure lifetime should not be confused with a measure’s sunset date, which is the period during which a measure’s savings estimation method is RTF-approved Factors Affecting Lifetime Many factors may have a substantial impact on measure lifetime. All substantial factors should be considered in the estimation. A factor is substantial if it would increase or decrease the measure lifetime by at least 20%. Factors that may be relevant to measure lifetime include, but are not limited to, the following. – Program delivery method. Measures directly installed may last longer than measures delivered via mail for self-install, because self-installers may be less skilled and may not install according to manufacturer expectations, such as appropriate placement. 32

Storage Rate – CFL Failure Lamps installed right away (e.g., direct install) 33 Source: Review of Massachusetts tracking data. Lynn Hoefgen et al., 2013, “Study It ‘til You’re Sick of It: CFL Research as an Example of Other Efficiency Markets”, 2013 International Energy Program Evaluation Conference.

Storage Rate – CFL Failure But not all retail lamps get installed right away 34 Assumes that 24% of lamps are installed at time of receipt, and 8% of lamps are installed in each of the subsequent 3 years.

Storage Rate – CFL Failure But not all retail lamps get installed right away 35 Note: 1)Installation rate increases in first few years 2)But some lamps installed in the first couple of years are already failing 3)The lifetime of the retail measure (6.1) is longer than that of the direct install measure (5.5).

Storage Rate – Savings Guidelines Roadmap Savings “Savings is defined as the difference in energy use between the baseline (see section 3.2) and post (after measure delivery) periods, which is caused by the delivery of a measure.” – Not clear on how to specify savings with unusual decay functions. – Historically, RTF has used first year savings, except for Last Measure In (LMI) measures. 36

Storage Rate – Questions What should the savings value represent? – First year savings? – Maximum savings before end of EUL? – Average savings from measure start until death of last unit? – Something else? The answer to this should inform how to handle storage rates for CFLs, where we – know the patterns of failure overtime, and – think we know when stored bulbs eventually get used Staff proposal: – Use first year savings – Use failure and installation patterns to estimate median time to 50% installation. This complies with the Guidelines. – Guidelines Issue: This does not lead to the correct lifetime savings (savings x EUL). [RTF approved this proposal at the October 2013 RTF meeting] Staff also received a proposal to disregard storage rate because the stored lamps tend to get installed within a few years. This has been discussed at previous RTF meetings. 37

Derating CFL and LED Lifetime 38 Switching effects on CFL lifetime “Welcome to the Dark Side: The Effect of Switching on CFL Measure Life” Corina Jump, James J. Hirsch, Jane Peters, and Dulane Moran, 2008 ACEEE Summer Study

Derating CFL and LED Lifetime 39 Switching effects on CFL lifetime “Welcome to the Dark Side: The Effect of Switching on CFL Measure Life” Corina Jump, James J. Hirsch, Jane Peters, and Dulane Moran, 2008 ACEEE Summer Study

Derating CFL and LED Lifetime 40 LEDs – Switching does not appear to be an issue – Lumen depreciation is the mode of failure that lifetime ratings are based on – Rapidly evolving products make long test periods impractical – RTF has historically capped the lifetime of LEDs to 12 years to address uncertainty in actual product performance and real-world factors (break, remodel) – Staff/CAT recommend no change

Discussion 41

Bonneville/NEEA/Cadeo Group Sales-based Baseline 42