UNM BBER Data Users Conference November 14 th, 2013 NMDWS Industry & Occupation Projections

Why Do We Make Projections?

Who Uses Industry And Occupational Projections? -High school and college students, their parents and teachers to learn about the available jobs in their area, -Career changers, career development specialists and guidance counselors, -State workforce agencies to match employment with education and economic development efforts, -Policymakers to best invest tax dollars to training, -Education and training officials to make decisions about education and training policy, funding, and program offerings, -Other federal agencies, researchers, and academics use the projections to understand trends in the economy and labor market. How often are they updated? -The National projections are updated every two years. -New Mexico and several other states update the industry and occupational projections every year for all areas.

How Are Projections Developed? Nearly Every State and 4 Territories Develop Projections Using The Same Modeling Program

Inputs To The Models - NEW MEXICO QCEW INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT TIME SERIES

- NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT TIME SERIES

- NATIONAL VARIABLES Composite Index - 10 Leading Indicators Average Weekly Hours in Manufacturing Average Weekly Initial UI Claims Manufacturer's New orders - Cons. Goods Vendor Performance Manufacturer's New Orders - non-Defense cap goods Building Permits - New Housing S & P 500 Money Supply (M2) Consumer Expectations Light Vehicle Sales NAPM: US Mfg Composite Total Business Inventories CPI - Urban: All items Total Housing Starts - Private PPI - Finished Goods - Except Food Total Non-Farm Employment Total non-Farm Employment - Goods Producing Interest Rate Spread

- NEW MEXICO VARIABLES New Mexico Population New Mexico Employment NM Median Household Income NM Per Capita Income New Mexico Unemployment Rate NM Natural Gas Marketed Production NM Building Permits

Start By Projecting Industry Growth Long Term Industry Projections – are for a ten- year horizon. Current cycle is Short Term Industry projections – are for a two-year horizon. Current cycle is

Add All The Inputs To Projections Models…. Inputs plus variables go in here... …Industry Projections come out here! Project-o-matic with shift- share; time-series; and OLS regression models

New Mexico LTIP New Mexico Industry Projections Annual Industry EstimatedProjectedNumberGrowth TitleCodeEmployment ChangeRate Manufacturing ,56028, % Ag, Forest, Fishing & Hunting ,3509, % Management of Companies ,0705, % Information ,45013, % Utilities ,3704, % Finance & Insurance ,00021, % Real Estate, Rental & Leasing ,64010,9601,3301.3% Arts, Entertainment & Recreation ,54014,6002,0501.5% Transportation & Warehousing ,04020,2502,2001.2% Wholesale Trade ,00023,6102,6101.2% Other Services ,64023,5502,9201.3% Government ,10093,6603,5500.4% Professional, Scientific & Technical ,57058,7905,2300.9% Construction ,20047,5505,3501.2% Administrative & Support Services ,64048,0806,4401.4% Mining ,25028,2507,0002.9% Retail Trade ,210104,31014,1001.5% Accommodation & Food Service ,94097,12017,1802.0% Educational Services ,200100,34020,1402.3% Health Care & Social Assistance ,040146,19028,1602.2% Total All ,840971,680119,8401.3%

Employment Growth,

Growth Change,

Share % Of Each Industry

New Mexico STIP New Mexico Industry Projections Industry EstimatedProjectedNumberPercent TitleCodeEmployment Change Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting ,40010, % Management of Companies , % Utilities ,4304, % Other Services (Except Government) ,18021, % Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation ,88013, % Information ,50013, % Wholesale Trade ,75022, % Finance & Insurance ,15021, % Manufacturing ,87030, % Administrative & Support Services ,70041, % Real Estate & Rental & Leasing ,05010, % Professional, Scientific, & Technical ,42052, % Transportation & Warehousing ,23019, % Educational Services ,70082, % Government ,19091,9001,7101.9% Construction ,90044,8301,9304.5% Retail Trade ,52095,4501,9302.1% Mining ,54027,1002, % Accommodation & Food Services ,31085,1202,8103.4% Health Care & Social Assistance ,040126,1805,1404.2% Total All Industries ,080819,27021,1902.7%

Industry Growth,

Growth Change,

Job Recovery Based On Industry Projections

Now That We Have Industry Projections, What’s Next?

- Occupational Staffing Pattern The occupational staffing pattern for industries comes from the Occupation Employment Statistics program Voluntary survey of about 3,500 employers per year Collected over 3 years Sampled based on their industry code Added Bonus – Wages by Occupation

Put It All Together…. Industry projections and staffing pattern data go in here… …And occupational projections come out here! Project-o-matic matches the industry control total with the staffing pattern

New Mexico OP New Mexico Occupational Projections Annual Total Occupational EstimatedProjectedNumberGrowthReplacementAnnualPercent GroupCodeEmployment ChangeOpenings Change Management ,58059,0202, ,1601,5204.3% Business & Financial ,12035,1003, , % Computer & Mathematical ,66017,0702, % Architecture & Engineering ,51021,8501, % Life, Physical & Social Science ,54014,6501, % Community & Social Service ,28016,9302, % Legal ,5007, % Education ,71064,48012,7701,2801,1502, % Arts, Design & Entertainment ,13012, % Healthcare Practitioners ,99054,7006, , % Healthcare Support ,94032,3106, , % Protective Services ,67024,3002, % Food Prep & Service ,90089,68015,7801,5802,5904, % Building & Grounds Cleaning ,36037,3804, % Personal Care & Service ,67059,39014,7101, , % Sales ,00092,61011,6101,1702,5403, % Office Support ,920134,9109,9901,1402,6903,8308.0% Farm, Fishing & Forestry ,6507, % Construction & Extraction ,84068,3208, ,2302, % Maintenance & Repair ,02037,1204, , % Production ,37032,9501, % Transportation & Material Moving ,48051,5106, ,1301, % Total All Occs ,840971,680119,84012,41019,96032, %

Employment Growth, NM Occupational Projections Annual Total Annual Occupational EstimatedProjectedNumberGrowthReplacementAnnualPercentGrowth TitlesCodeEmployment ChangeOpenings ChangeRate Person Care Aides ,70030,67010,9701, , %4.5% Retail Sales ,58033,3104, , %1.5% Combination Food Prep & Servers ,36018,6704, %2.7% Home Health Aides ,79010,7503, %4.7% Waitstaff ,27018,6303, , %2.0% Cashiers ,70022,8103, , %1.5% Elementary School Teachers ,41012,1402, %2.6% Registered Nurses ,89019,4802, %1.4% Teachers Aides ,64011,9002, %2.1% Customer Service Representatives ,77014,5801, %1.3% Restaurant Cooks ,4108,1301, %2.4% Bookkeepers ,09015,6001, %1.0% Janitors ,31013,8201, %1.2% Truck Drivers ,61011,0501, %1.4% Retail Sales Supervisors ,87013,3101, %1.2% Food Prep & Servers Supervisors ,0307,4001, %2.1% General Office Clerks ,19011,5401, %1.3% Stockers & Material Handlers ,10010,3901, %1.3% Roustabouts ,8004,0701, %3.8% Office Managers ,77010,9501, %1.2% Total All Occs ,840971,680119,84012,41019,96032, %1.3%

Employment Projections By Education, New Mexico Projections By Education Education Number Level Change Less than high school250,110300,73050,620 High school diploma or equivalent356,010392,26036,250 Bachelor's degree130,770151,01020,240 Master's degree15,17018,6603,500 Postsecondary non-degree award34,30037,7303,430 Doctoral or professional degree20,47023,2702,800 Associate's degree39,35041,6902,340

Projections Are Based On All Things Being Equal And There Are No Shocks To The Economy…

Click these links for industry or occupational projections

QUESTIONS?

CONTACT INFORMATION: Bob Richards ECONOMIC RESEARCH & ANALYSIS BUREAU DEPARTMENT OF WORKFORCE SOLUTIONS