Co-benefits of Integrated Approach to Air Quality Management and Climate Change Mitigation Role of Integrated Assessment Methods in SEA Dr. Vladislav Bizek Senior Consultant – Strategic Studies Technology Center of the Czech Academy of Sciences Rozvojová 135, 165 02 Praha 6, Czech Republic e-mail: bizek@tc.cz; vladislav.bizek@gmail.com

Background-Introduction Climate Change – major environmental problem worldwide GHGs: CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases Air Pollution – serious environmental problem in majority of countries: Health impact (PM, ozone = VOC + NOX) Ecosystem impact (ozone) Acidification (SO2, NOX, NH3) Eutrophication (NOX , NH3) Separate Treatment in Environmental Policies

Czech Republic – Air Pollution – example PM exceedance 2007

Czech Republic – GHGs - example Per capita 2006 emissions of CO2

Background – Physico-chemical Interactions Ozone – greenhouse gas (warming), direct effect on human health and ecosystems, indirect effect on the uptake of CO2 by vegetation, Methane – greenhouse gas and precursor of ozone, Black Carbon – human health effects and positive radiative forcing (warming), Sulphur dioxide – acidification, precursor of secondary PM, negative radiative forcing (cooling), Total aerosols – negative radiative forcing (coolling) and health effects, …. Very complex processes – many uncertainties

GHGs and Air Pollutants - Radiative forcing Comparison

Background – driving forces Emissions of GHGs: energy (combustion of fossil fuels), transport (combustion of fossil fuels), agriculture Emissions of air pollutants : energy (combustion of any fuel), transport (combustion of any fuel), agriculture, industry (solvent use) High overlap of driving forces… Integrated approach is reasonable

Background – Policy response win-win solutions: synergies (energy savings, energy efficiency, certain renewables, ….) win-lose solutions: trade offs (lack of coordination of measures, switch from petrol vehicles to diesel, inpropper combustion of biomass, …) Integrated assessment of policies is crucial !

Background - Conclusion -strong and complex interaction among air pollutants and greenhouse gases high overlap of diriving forces (sources of emissions) two types of policy response (synergies versus trade-offs) crucial role of integrated assessment

Integrated assessment - Introduction Two major initiatives: Integrated Assessment Models (IIASA under the support of the European Commission) Integrated Environmental Strategies (IES) Program (US EPA) Co-benefit/Co-control Approach (China)

Integrated model: EC4MACS / GAINS EC4MACS – European Consortium for Modelling of Air Pollution and Climate Strategies (http://www.ec4macs.eu) GAINS – the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (http://www.iiasa.ac.at)

EC4MACS – Structure of the Integrated Model

Model GAINS – Description in DPSIR Format Driving forces (energy, transport, industry, agriculture) Pressure (emissions – PM, SO2, NOX, VOC, NH3, CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases) State (dispersion of primary pollutants, creation of secondary pollutants) Impact (health impact of PM and ozone, acidification, eutrophication) Response (cost optimization, scenario assessment)

Model GAINS – example 1 – loss in life expectancy due to PM (months) 2000–2020 (optimized scenario)

Macedonia – Emissions 2020 (scenario E+C Package, current legislation) Model GAINS – Example 2 Macedonia – Emissions 2020 (scenario E+C Package, current legislation) CO2 CH4 PM10 SO2 NOX Mt kt 11.47 74.96 14.80 72.07 43.48

Model GAINS – Example 3

Model GAINS – Example 4

Model GAINS – Example 5

Model GAINS - Application Covers all Europe - Minimal scope – country level In Southern Europe: Albania, Bosnia and Hercegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Romania, Serbia and Slovenia Calculates (for pre-defined scenarios): Emissions: PM (TSP, PM10 and PM2.5 , SO2, NOX, VOC, NH3, CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases, total GHGs Impacts (life expectancy, damage to vegetation, eutrophication, acidification) Costs (total for scenario, per pollutants)

Model GAINS – how to use it? Website: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/rains/index.htm Free registration possible to become „viewer“, then: Select country Select scenario Calculate (emissions, impacts, costs) Downloads only available (special rights necessary for uploads)

Integrated Assessment Tools at Local Level Model CAPS-Clean Air and Climate Protection Software Enables: - Calculation of emission inventories and emission projections of air pollutants and GHGs Assessment of efficiency of measures Development of strategies and action plans Information at: http:// www.4cleanair.org

Thanks for your attention !