Raw materials trades – EU Policy and the impact of developing countries on future trade flows Dr Corina Hebestreit, Director, Euromines

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals Euromines – what it is Recognized representative of the European metals and minerals mining industry; Service provider to its members with regard to EU policy; Network for cooperation and for the exchange of information throughout the sector within Europe; Link to contacts with the mining community throughout the world. » 2

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals Euromines Membership Represents large and small companies and subsidiaries in Europe and in other parts of the world; 18 national mining federations 27 direct company members 350,000 jobs; Representing 42 different metals and minerals For some metals and minerals, Europe is the world's leading producer. » 3

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals Percentage of different minerals represented in Euromines » 4

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals Countries represented Austria Bulgaria Czech Republic Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Norway Poland Portugal Slovakia Sweden Turkey United Kingdom » 5

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals Economy and Metal Consumption

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals Global consumption of all metals has been increasing in the last 20 years, except some minor metals like Cd

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals CRM are not only rare metals : The case of copper Copper demand for automotive industry will increase (electrification & volume effects)  Not only “rare” metals, but also commodities are critical  Look beyond our own sector Current marginal market price Supply and Demand Imbalance Price scenario Competitive Recycled Cu price Marginal market price (incl. smelting cost…) Floor production cost Competitive recycled Copper price Stock Recycling

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals Growing Demand: Example 1: copper 9

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals “In-use” life of Copper Secondary resource base available today 8.5 Mt/yr 50% of current annual demand 25? yrs Minimum needs exceed available scrap

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals Growing Demand: Example 2: industrial minerals 11

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals Intensity of use: Steel 12

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals GDP and steel intensity 13

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals EU Industrial Policies and a related Material Demand Forecast Example: Predicted growth rates for photovoltaic cells Development of raw material demand

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals EU electrification of cars

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals EU electrification of cars

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals Other new technologies

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals Exploration 18 Average yearly investments forecasts in non-ferrous mineral exploration by regions ($ value on 31/12/07, corrected by the change in the CPI index). Source: Metals Economic Group, Wikipedia, US Department of Labor Statistics.

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals Investment is coming Mining industry capex, NFMs, 2011US$ bn Source: CRU, industry estimates (est)

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals The EU’s Raw Materials Imitative and the EIP on Raw Materials European Raw Materials Strategy COM(2008) 699; COM(2011) 25 Europe Flagships Initiatives out of 7 → raw material strategy synergies An industrial policy for the globalisation era An agenda for new skills and jobs Resource Efficient Europe Innovation Union

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals EIP on Raw Materials: Key components Technology-focused policy areas Exploration, extraction, processing, recycling Substitution Non Technology policy areas Improving Europe's raw materials regulatory framework, knowledge and infrastructure base, e.g. access to land. Promotion of excellence in resource efficiency International cooperation Promoting appropriate international cooperation ETP SMR, Research projects, ERA-MIN Implementation of the RMI EIP Level playing field WTO, Trade agreements

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals First pillar Access to raw materials on world markets at undistorted conditions Key actions: pursuing raw materials diplomacy; promoting enhanced international cooperation; access to primary and secondary raw materials should become a priority in EU trade and regulatory policy; EU policy development at three levels: strengthening states; promoting a sound investment climate; promoting sustainable management of raw materials.

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals Raw materials diplomacy Seeking cooperation with USA and Japan Integrating raw materials aspects into the bilateral trade negotiations, e.g. South America Promoting sustainable extraction of mineral resources worldwide Developing access to resources in Greenland Capacity building for the African minerals sector

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals EU Policy on trade in raw materials Situation Increasing numbers of barriers distorting global markets… Leading to suboptimal allocation of scarce resources: There is an economic cost for the lack of trade! Trade is a key policy in the Raw Materials initiative and includes Negotiation of disciplines in bilateral and multilateral trade agreements (e.g. on export restrictions, including export duties) Monitoring, review and WTO enforcement Dialogue and outreach activities

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals Second pillar Foster sustainable supply of raw materials from European sources Key actions: having the right framework conditions securing access to the land; improving the knowledge base of mineral deposits within EU; better networking between the national geological surveys; promoting research projects; address the problem of skill shortage; raising awareness of the importance of domestic raw materials for the European economy; developing guidelines to reconcile Natura 2000 areas with extractive activities nearby.

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals Production Overview EU 27 SummaryunitEU-27WorldShare EUSource Iront ,4%WMD Ferro aloyst ,1%WMD Non-ferroust ,1%WMD Precious metalskg ,1%WMD Industrial mineralst ,4%WMD Constr. Materialst ,0%UEPG Mineral FuelsSKE ,5%WMD 26

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals Main Mineral Deposits of Europe 27

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals ProMine Project: Nano-particle products from new mineral resources in Europe 27 partners from 11 EU countries Total budget: 17 M € Assessing the EU mineral potential

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals EU Analysis of critical raw materials 29

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals Critical Raw Materials in Europe 30

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals Suurikuusikko Au Talvivaara Ni Kevitsa Ni Suhanko PGE? Kolari Fe Laiva Au Pampalo Au Kylylahti Cu-Co Mining of ore in Finland – new projects

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals Third pillar Reduce the EU’s consumption of raw materials per functional unit and improve product performance Key actions: promoting resource efficiency, recycling; substitution and increased use of renewable raw materials; ensuring that the treatment of waste takes place under fair and sustainable conditions in relations with third countries.

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals Steps forward since A European Innovation Partnership on Raw Materials (EIP) will be created. Members are: the national mining authorities, the European Commission and the Mining Industry This would stimulate and foster research into new and more resource-efficient management and will also review the legal framework

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals From now to 2030 Revised Mineral Policies such as: land-planning and mine waste management (by 2015) Modern database and economic assessment of EU primary and secondary resources (by 2020) Further steps in automation and high tech extraction (by 2030) New technologies for recovery and recycling (by 2030)

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals Education and skills 35 Education, training and skills of all sorts will be a prerequisite for such an agenda and the ambitious targets The sheer number of people required in the coming decade does not seem to be available  investment in and advertise for this specialized education is needed

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals Vision for 2020 and beyond By 2015 EIP on Raw Materials: research into new and more resource efficient resource access and management; review of regulatory requirements Complete database by MS on old mine waste sites (EU Mine Waste Directive) EU Standard methodology for prioritisation and economic assessment of such deposits All Member States have new or revised Mineral Policies in place All MS Land-planning policies include references to extractable mineral deposits Revision of BAT note on mine waste management

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals Vision for 2020 and beyond By 2020 Complete modern database and economic assessment of EU primary and secondary resources Revised regulatory framework facilitating sustainable management of resources and uptake of innovation EU Leadership in technology for all aspects of resource management (exploration, extraction, processing, re-processing, reuse, recycling, recovery, design, …) EU ressource diversification

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals Vision for 2020 and beyond By 2030 Only High tech mines in place in Europe Technology proven and being exported Optimised valorisation of available resources, i.e. new technologies in place, removal of legacy sites, increased reuse, recovery and recycling rates, material efficiency use in higher performance products BEFORE RESTORATION AFTER RESTORATION

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals Results of EU industrial policies Material flows Waste Secondary materials Primary materials Products Waste Secondary materials Primary materials Products Europe China

European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals Chinese wisdom: « When the wind of change blows, some build walls, while others build windmills.”