Realignments The Ultimate Change in Partisanship.

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Presentation transcript:

Realignments The Ultimate Change in Partisanship

Two-Party System in American History

We often Switch Party Loyalty Congressional Elections Weaker partisan ties Poor challengers These can result in a landslide for one party

REALIGNMENTS How To Wreck a Party

How to Wreck a Movie First, how to wreck a movie movie Strange Brew 1983

What is a Realignment A Durable shift in voting Patterns The New Party Kills the Old Majority Parties become minorities

Who Switches in a Realignment Hard Cores do not switch Independents do New Voters Weak partisans become strong Partisans

What Causes a Realignment Economic or social crisis Failure of the party to interpret change A changed electorate

The Policy Implications A mandate for change Major New Policies Continued success

Options for the Losers Ignore the issue Try to absorb it Change

A THEORY OF CRITICAL ELECTIONS Good Times

Kinds of Realignments Secular Realignments- happen over time Regional Realignments Critical Elections

MaintainingDeviating ConvertingRealigning same change VICTORYDefeat Types of Election Majority Party

A Realigning Election The Actual Critical Election – 1860 – 1896 – 1930 High Intensity High Turnout

A Maintaining Election A boring election The party in power remains in power 1936, 1940, 1944, 1948, 1960

Deviating Election The Out party does well No shift in long term partisanship Caused by short-term factors 1912, 1916, 1952, 1956

Converting Election The out party is gaining seats The precursor to a realignment The majority party keeps control.

THE LAST REALIGNMENT The New Deal

The New Deal Realignment The GOP was the majority party from The Democrats Replaced the GOP and kept effective power from

How FDR Did it Kept the South Inroads into the North Urban Party – Catholics – Poor – Unions

Policy differences Focused on Domestic Economic Issues Expansion of Government Clear Policy differences between the parties The GOP could not adopt this message or expand its base

The End of the New Deal Problems are solved New Issues Emerge The Electorate Changes

How it Happens New Deal Democrats Die Catholics become assimilated economically New voters are less partisan Conflict between working class and African Americans

THE CASE OF THE SOUTH The real end of the new deal realignment

The South in historical context Solidly Democratic from The key to Democratic strength because of opportunity costs The shift of the South to the GOP marks the end of the New Deal Realignment

How the South Shifted First in Presidential elections (1948, 1964, 1968) Then State-wide offices Southern Democrats Die and are replaced by Republicans

Why the South Shifted Race Economics Demographics

THE CURRENT PARTY ALIGNMENT

The Parties have been Competitive Republicans President- 72, 80, 84, , 2004 (24 years) Senate , (18 years) House , years Democrats President- 76, 92, 96, 2008 (16 years) Senate , , (20 years) House , (26 years)

Dealignment A weakening of partisan ties Partisans, however, have become more extreme (as has congress) A new realignment would require the conversion of independents

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