EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany Man-machine mix and the forecaster's role Dr. Wilfried Jacobs Deutscher Wetterdienst Bildungs- und Tagungszentrum

EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany Typical role for a forecaster § medium range and short range forecasts monitoring of model results (e.g., according to conceptual model or by comparing with corresponding measurements, observations) interpretation of model output and statistical products (e.g., MOS-probabilities, EPS) in the light of the monitoring § Nowcasting model monitoring (model still reliable?) weather monitoring (significant weather event?) product monitoring (warnings still correct?)

EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany MMO (Modified Model Output) NWP / Statistical output Check by the forecaster (based upon recent information) succeeding methods (e.g., road weather forecasts, automatic text generation) MMO (automatic consistency check)

EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany

EPM (Edition Production and Monitoring) § Purpose issue of weather warnings –correct –recent –adapted to the users' requirement § Technique interactive and user friendly software automatic distribution to individual customers according to standards automatic cancellation reminder automonitoring

EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany Automonitoring (automatic alert) § Weather monitoring Synop (METAR, SPECI) Warn-MOS (spatial probabilities) KONRAD significant cells GRIB (COSMO-EU / GME - forecasts) § Quality monitoring („model minus reality“) LM / GME (GRIB) optimal guidance (point data) other products (e.g., road weather forecasts) synthetik satellite images (COSMO-EU / COSMO-DE)

EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany Automonitoring „Weather“

EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany Automonitoring „Quality“

EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany Internet: Warnings entire Germany (27/07/06, 14:34 MESZ)

EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany Internet: Warnings federal countries (27/07/06, 14:38 MESZ)

EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany Internet: district „Bitburg-Prüm“ (27/07/06, 14:25 MESZ) ( > mm / 24 h) Locally more than 50 l/m² within 1 hour Hail (about 3 cm) gusts (up to 45 kt) Hints to dangers

EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany Objective optimalization (automatically) § Goal: Optimal point forecast § (In development) Automatic combination (based upon objective criteria) local NWP-forecasts observations remote sensing Continuous adaptation of this guidance to recent synoptic observations nowcasting products (SAFs, Satellite weather, lightning, radar) Manually checked point forecasts (base for most products)