CT5 Highlights Future scenarios for marine carbon sources and sinks EU FP6 Integrated Project CARBOOCEAN ”Marine carbon sources and sinks assessment” 4 th Annual Meeting – Dourdan France 8-12 December 2008

WP11. Model performance assessment and initial fields for scenarios Objectives To determine, how well biogeochemical ocean general circulation models (BOGCMs) are able to reproduce carbon cycle observations from the real world with respect to temporal and spatial distributions To refine criteria for model performance with respect to observations and other model To establish a quality check for the initial conditions for future scenarios with BOGCMs

Common database for model output In FP6-CARBOOCEAN: 5 models : NCAR, MPIM, IPSL, U.Bergen, (Hadley) So far in C4MIP, only global CO2, ocean/land C-fluxes, … as in Friedlingstein et al All 2D, 3D variables, same format, on a dods server Model_Name Simulation_Name DIC Alk Fe NO3 Phy, Phy2, … Zoo, Zoo2, … ….. (annual mean from 1860 to 2100, monthly means for , , ) D11.9 Extended Earth system model data set storage : monthly BOGCM data sets for surface ocean pCO 2, atmospheric pCO 2, DIC, Cant, Alk, CO 3 2-, pH, O 2, PO 4 3-, NO 3 -, primary production POC, export production (POC, CaCO 3, opal), salinity, temperature, sea ice cover, topography, grid information; repeat comparison analysis for pCO 2, C ant (month 42)

Birgit Schneider et al. D11.9 Extended Earth system model data set storage : monthly BOGCM data sets for surface ocean pCO 2, atmospheric pCO 2, DIC, Cant, Alk, CO 3 2-, pH, O 2, PO 4 3-, NO 3 -, primary production POC, export production (POC, CaCO 3, opal), salinity, temperature, sea ice cover, topography, grid information; repeat comparison analysis for pCO 2, C ant (month 42) Modern Annual-mean CO 2 air-sea Fluxes

- Atmospheric pCO 2 (Cadule et al. in prep) Models : IPSL-old, IPSL, HadCM3 D 11.7 Atmospheric pCO 2 comparison model/observations. (Month 42)

Evaluation: Model Intercomparison - Atmospheric pCO 2 (Cadule et al. in prep) Models : IPSL-old, IPSL, HadCM3 CO 2 at MLO vs. SST nino3 or others

Jerry Tjiputra et al. BCM-C D 11.8 Analysis of the decadal variability in the ocean biogeochemical models and of the comparability model/observations for DIC, O 2, nutrients, and further carbon cycle tracers. (Month 48)

Birgit Schneider et al. D 11.8 Analysis of the decadal variability in the ocean biogeochemical models and of the comparability model/observations for DIC, O 2, nutrients, and further carbon cycle tracers. (Month 48)

Natural variability and trends in oceanic oxygen Imminent ocean acidification Long-term climate and ocean acidification commitment Productivity Natural variability and trends in oceanic oxygen Introduction Methods Results Conclusions & Outlook Global A16N Optical Depth ∆O2∆O ∆O2∆O2 Volcanic perturbations in O 2 penetrate the top 500 m and persist several years. Largest O 2 changes at 400m in the late nineties -> Cumulative impact from several earlier eruptions. Difficult to detect on local scales due to large unforced variability. (Frölicher et al, in revision) Thomas Frölicher et al.

WP17. Coupled climate carbon cycle simulations Objectives To provide standard set ups of coupled carbon-climate models including simulations for the present  To provide predictions of ocean carbon sources and sinks with the standard model configurations for a standard emission scenario  To determine important feedback processes – key regional areas in the response of oceanic carbon cycle to climate change  To provide interfaces for the new feedback processes as investigated under WP 16 and core theme 4 D17.12 Meeting of WP16 and WP17 to discuss current results and new coupled models runs, including feedback processes investigated under WP16 (month 48) (all). BERN 6-7 November 2008 Fortunat Joos et al.

The climate system: HadGEM2-ES CLIMATE CHEMISTRYECOSYSTEMS AEROSOLS GHG’s Greenhouse Effect Direct and Indirect Effects Human Emissions Human Emissions Human Emissions Land-use Change Online Offline DMS, Mineral dust Biogenic Emissions:CH 4 Dry deposition: stomatal conductance Oxidants: OH, H 2 O 2 HO 2,O 3 CH 4, O 3, CO 2 Fe deposition D 17.5 Carbon cycle data sets for basic future scenarios from Hadley and Bergen Models (month 48) (partner 1and 33) [extended from previous work plan for Partner 1and 33]. Ian Totterdell et al.

D 17.5 Carbon cycle data sets for basic future scenarios from Hadley and Bergen Models (month 48) (partner 1and 33) [extended from previous work plan for Partner 1and 33]. Jerry Tjiputra et al.

D 17.5 Carbon cycle data sets for basic future scenarios from Hadley and Bergen Models (month 48) (partner 1and 33) [extended from previous work plan for Partner 1and 33]. Mats Bentsen, Ingo Bethke, Jerry Tjiputra et al.

Projections: - Carbon Fluxes and Climate-carbon feedback … at the global scale :  = dCflux / dCO 2 and  = dCflux / dT  = function of mean mixed layer depth  = function of SST, MLD, Export, THC, … … break down these relationships by regions / basins (Laurent Bopp, Tilla Roy, Marion Gehlen et al.) (discussion tomorrow) D 17.9 Publication on intercomparison of oceanic carbon uptake on the period, including others C4MIP models (month 42) (Partner 6 and all) [extended from previous work plan]

D Analysis of climate change impact on export production of POC, CaCO 3 and potential feedback on carbon uptake (month 42) (Partner 11, 6 and 13). Birgit Schneider et al.

Projections: - Introducing other forcings – Carbon fluxes, CC feedback: … Stratospheric ozone depletion (Lenton et al. submitted) With O 3 decrease: - stronger winds - less carbon uptake Less sink Carbon Uptake (GtC y -1 ) Increase in wind stress in SO IPSL Coupled model: Ensemble runs with/without stratospheric O 3 depletion over D17.11 Effects of other greenhouse gases (CH4, N2O, CFC, …) and anthropogenic aerosols on ocean carbon uptake and climate-carbon feedback (at least one group) (month 48) (Partner 6)

Effect of dust on ocean biogeochemistry Present dust deposition Future dust deposition Extra CO 2 taken up by the plankton D17.11 Effects of other greenhouse gases (CH4, N2O, CFC, …) and anthropogenic aerosols on ocean carbon uptake and climate-carbon feedback (at least one group) (month 48) (Partner 6) Totterdell et al.

An illustrative climate model experiment: - Business as Usual until Stop all emissions in 2100 (Plattner et al., J. Clim, 2008)

... and atmospheric CO 2 from a range of models (Plattner et al., J. Clim, 2008, IPCC, WGI, Fig TS31)... and surface warming

Model description Experimental Design Model Performance Introduction Methods Results & Implications Conclusions Experimental design 5 simulations, starting from a nearly stable 1000-year preindustrial control from 1820 AD to 2500 AD 1)680 year control run (to detrend possible model drift) 2)Zero emissions after 2100 SRES A2 („High-scenario“) 3)Zero emissions after 2100 SRES B1 („Low-scenario“) 4)Zero emissions after 2000 („Hist-scenario“) 5)No-warming: Zero emissions after 2100 („no-warming-scenario“) 2196 Gt C 1304 Gt C 397 Gt C Thomas Frölicher et al.

CO 2 Surface Temperature Sea Level Rise Carbonate Chemistry Introduction Methods Results & Uncertainty Conclusions CO 2 CO 2 decreases towards a new equilibrium, which is not reached by % (27% wo cc) of the anth. carbon emissions willl remain in the atmosphere, but the ocean takes up most of the remainder. Vegetation and soil carbon pools on land become a slight source for anth. carbon. Atmospheric CO 2 [ppm]Cumulative fraction of ant. CO 2 Thomas Frölicher et al.

Steric sea leve rise: global Steric sea level rise [cm] CO 2 Surface Temperature Sea Level Rise Carbonate Chemistry Introduction Methods Results & Uncertainty Conclusions Thomas Frölicher et al.

Observation-based estimates from: ODEN-91, AOS-94, ARCSYS-96 Observations + modeled perturbation Projected undersaturation in the Arctic extends to 4000 m depth in 2100 and SRES A2 Depth (m) 200% 100% 50% Depth (m) Distance (km) saturation (Marco Steinacher et al., 2008)

WP18. Feasibility study on purposeful carbon storage Objectives To determine the kinetics and phase-transfer reactions between liquid CO 2, hydrate, and seawater from laboratory experiments under high pressures. To simulate the near-range dispersion of injected CO 2 using these new kinetic constraints and improved meso-scale models for CO 2 injection in the deep ocean and at the sea floor To prepare the simulation of the large-scale propagation of injected CO 2 and the global ocean’s retention efficiency (using these improved near-range constraints and a global high-resolution model) To provide preliminary quantification of spatial scales for stress on marine biota due to deliberate CO 2 injection.

Nikolaus Bigalke et al., Environ. Sci. Technol., 2008 D18.3 Extended parameters for near-range geochemical kinetics and phase transfer for deep ocean storage (month 42)

Deliverable 18.5: Global-scale, high-resolution modelling of CO 2 release month 48) Models: low-res (ORCA2) vs. hi-res (ORCA05, ¼º at 60ºS) –Dynamics & CFC-11 evaluation (Lachkar et al., 2007, 2008) –Upgraded from OPA8 to OPA9 (NEMO): code + physics –Upgraded TOP (passive-tracer module): F90 etc –Upgraded acceleration tool (DEGINT): grid, approach –Complete rewrite of injection code (from OCMIP2-GOSAC) Simulations: –Preindustrial abiotic CO2 and C-14: 3000-year spin-up –Industrial-era ( ): anthropogenic CO2 & C-14 –Injection simulations launched in Dec 2008 Low-res “Non-eddying” model (ORCA2) completed by end of Dec 2008 High-res “Eddying” model (ORCA05) completed by end of Feb 2009 –Analysis (March – June 2009) –Report & Manuscript written (July – Dec 2009) D18.5 Global scale high resolution modelling of CO 2 release (month 42). J. Orr et al.

POSTER Where Mother Earth Runs a Lab for Us - Investigating Carbon Storage in Deep-Sea Sediments by Looking at Natural CO2 Seepage in the Okinawa Trough Hydrothermal System Gregor Rehder & the SO 196 shipboard party D18.6 Comparison of the observations of condensed CO 2 behaviour from laboratory and field observations (54)