Scottish Board and Knowledge Sharing Scotland Stephen Cunningham
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 The Scottish Board The Scottish Board of the IFoA is accountable to members in Scotland and has three main key responsibilities (KRs):- –KR1 – Encourage and Develop the Actuarial Community in Scotland. Key success to date has been the KSS and OCF CPD events. Greater links to students and understanding optimal communication strategy are 2015 objectives as well as greater oversight of the wider CPD programme in Scotland. –KR2 – Raise the Profile of Actuaries and the Profession in Scotland. The profile and understanding of the IFoA was substantially enhanced by the Independence Vote with many new strong relationships made. Further 2015 work on engaging Employers, Schools/Universities, Media and PR as well as maintaining political engagement. –KR3 – Encourage and Advance Academic Developments in Scotland. The key success has been use of the Endowment Fund to help set up the ARC which is maturing and developing, we would welcome member input on use of the remaining Endowment Fund. The key 2015 roadmap for this KR is to understand and develop structure around academic developments in Scotland as well as develop a forward plan for the Endowment. The leader of the Scottish Board is Martin Potter (Hymans Robertson) and the Secretary is Tess Joyce We’d actively like more member feedback on the Scottish Board activities and willing volunteers to join the Board to help support the profession in 2
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 KSS – Knowledge Sharing Scotland KSS offers members the opportunity to host/attend small, locally run events in an informal environment, to share information and experiences with peers. CANUK – Chinese Actuarial Network UK The Chinese Actuarial Network UK (CANUK) is an independent and non-profit making membership organisation for Chinese actuaries living and working in the UK. 3
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Summary of Scottish Events This is a KSS event put on by the Scottish Board in relation to feedback from members wanting more frequent and less formal CPD events in Scotland. The future KSS and OCF events for 2014/2015 session are:- –15 January – Maggie Craig from the FCA. “There’s more to life than pensions.” Edinburgh –5 February – John Wilson from JLT. “Current legislative developments in the pensions industry”. Edinburgh –26 February – Stephen Yates, Andrew Hornell and Stuart Cook from Towers Watson. “Impact of the 2014 Budget on DB pensions schemes. Edinburgh –26 March – John Warburton and Sandy Trust from Prudential. “A sea change in pensions” Stirling The Sessional Research Events are organised by the IFoA and the next event is Monday 19 January at RCPE and is ‘ROC Working Party: ‘Towards the Optimal Reserving Process’. Professional Skills for Experienced Members sessions on 28 January, 11 February and 18 March held at the IFoA Edinburgh. David Hume Institute “The Politicians and the Professionals” series on 13 & 21 January and 5, 18 & 25 February. 4
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Trends and opportunities of investing in emerging market Steven Yang Yu 5
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 What should you consider before designing investment strategy? 6
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 7 Begin with the end in mind Assets: £1.6bn Assets: £1.8bn Required Return:7% per year Required Return: 5% per year Liabilities: £2.3bn Return Requirement? Risk budget? Governance structure? Liquidity profile? Full Funding (Assets = Liabilities) “All investment strategy starts with the clear goals, objectives & constraints of the client, including a defined and agreed risk budget” - Redington Investment Principle
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 8 Achieving your end game Assets with Cash Flows Smooth Volatility Liability Driven Investment / Hedging Property Leases Corporate Bonds Developed Market Equity Emerging Market Equity Emerging Market Debt Risk Parity Multi-Asset Infrastructure Meeting the Gap
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Why Emerging Market? 9
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 10 Capital Market Under Represented Source: Neuberger Berman
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 11 Economic Contribution Continues to Increase Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2014
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 12 Rising Domestic Consumption Compound Growth 8.4% Source: FundSmith
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 13 Healthy Balance Sheets Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2014
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 14 Growing Investment Universe EM Fixed Income Universe EM Equity Market Cap (USD Trillions) Source: Ashmore
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 15 Asset Strategies Passive Equity Active Equity Equity Sovereign Bond Corporate Bond Fixed Income Property Private Equity Illiquid
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 16 I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been. Wayne Gretzky Identifying Trends and Opportunities
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Case Study for China Trends due to technological change 17
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 18 “Internet will change people’s life” 1999 Jack Ma – Founder of Alibaba Group Technological Change
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 19 E-commerce company, founded in 1999 $9.3 billion sales on 11 Nov 2014 Market value $280 billion Instant/mobile messenger, founded in million monthly active users Market value $150 billion Search engine, founded in 2000 Handling 5 billion search queries per day Market value $85 billion Technological Change
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 20 Technological Change
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 21 “take a human desire, preferably one that has been around for a really long time. Identify that desire and use modern technology to take out steps.” Evan Williams – Co-Founder of Twitter Technological Change 1 – Eliminating steps
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 22 Technological Change 1 – Eliminating steps
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 23 Technological Change 1 – Eliminating steps
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 24 Technological Change 1 – Eliminating steps
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 25 Who stole my cheese?? Technological Change 2 – Cross Sector Competition
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 26 Technological Change 2 – Cross Sector Competition
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 27 MACHINERYLABOUR CAPITAL LAND Intellectual property Patents Brand New Technology Data User Platform Goodwill Customer Base Human Capital Technological Change 3 – Recognition of Intangible Assets
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 28 Technological Change 4 – Innovate or Die
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 29 QQ Online Game QQ Blog Webmail QQ Mobile App, Expand Value Added Services Mobile IM Wechat Launched Mobile Social Media Apps for taxi/flight booking Mobile Payment Platform Technological Change 4 – Innovate or Die
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 30 Customer First Team Work Integrity Embrace Change Passion Commitmen t Technological Change 5 – Unique and clear differentiation
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 31 Technological Change 5 – Unique and clear differentiation
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 32 Embracing Changes
An Englishman in PRC 英国人在中国 John Atherton 安伟卓 4 December 年 12 月 4 日
How Different is China?
Language 说话 你好
Language 说话 Hello 你好
Food 饭菜
Drink 喝酒
Movember 胡子月
Culture 文化
Operational Risk What is acceptable?
Operational Risk in Chinese Culture Accountability East meets West Self certification vs Audit Excellent process execution Self interest vs company interest Collusion Reliance on external controls
Pace Again
c.1990 c.2010 Shanghai Pudong 上海浦东
Chinese Accounting Standard Chinese Accounting Standard for insurance is based on the next version of IFRS for insurance (IFRS4 Phase 2) Fast following ahead of the original! After limited discussion and field trials Draft rules mid-2009 Implemented for YE 2009 Final rules issued 13/1/2010
C-ROSS Similar but at a Different Pace
C-ROSS Chinese-Risk Orientated Solvency Standard Chinese version of Solvency 2 First discussed in 2012 Will be implemented from 1/1/2016 (same as for Solvency 2)
C-ROSS Pillar 1 ►Insurance Risk ►Market Risk ►Credit Risk Quantitative Total Capital Evaluation Standard Capital Grading Dynamic Solvency Testing Regulatory Intervention Risk Comprehensive Grading ►Operational Risk ►Strategic Risk ►Reputational Risk ►Liquidity Risk Regulatory Requirement Regulatory Inspection Regulatory Intervention Public Disclosure Requirement Market Discipline Note: C-ROSS will focus quantification on Market Risk, Insurance Risk and Credit Risk (allowing for diversification benefits). It is not proposed to quantify Operational Risk and Liquidity Risk. However, operational risk and risk management controls will be considered within Pillar 2 risk comprehensive grading at HO and branch level. This comprehensive grading is expected to directly impact the minimum amount of risk capital a firm is required to hold. Therefore, operational risk control at HO and branches will become even more important in the future. China Risk Oriented Solvency System Framework Core/Total capital determined by grading according to loss absorption capability Overall evaluation of solvency risk include quantitative measurement and qualitative measurement. Evaluation scope covers both HO & branches. Pillar 2Pillar 3 Quantitative
C-ROSS – The Challenges What are suitable yield curves? – Are markets deep and liquid? – Are markets moved by policy actions How do you measure Op Risk – No data – Gaming the rules How do you maintain consistency? – Any chance of Internal Models?
Questions?