ALARO-0 experience in Hungary1 Mihály Szűcs Hungarian Meteorological Service ALARO-1 Working Days, June 2012, Ljubljana, Slovenia

ALARO-0 experience in Hungary2 Contests ALARO in operation First general experiences: I mprovements in high-atmospheric scores Good precipitation patterns Some problematic questions: Screen level diagnostics – new formula Cloud settings – namelist modifications Too strong wind gusts

ALARO-0 experience in Hungary3 ALARO in operation Deterministic system: With data assimilation ALARO is operational from March of 2012 Ensemble system: Dynamical adaptation of the first 11 members from PEARP ALARO is operational from November of 2011 Resolution: 8km horizontal 49 vertical levels 300s timesteps

ALARO-0 experience in Hungary4 First experiences – high-atmosperic scores Improvements in most of the variables and levels Similar experiences with and without assimilation (deterministic and EPS)

ALARO-0 experience in Hungary5 First experiences – precipitation pattern Global hydrostatic models usually under-estimate the bigger precipitation events and give rain for bigger areas. NH models could over- estimate and generate dotted patterns for frontal precipitation

ALARO-0 experience in Hungary6 Screen level diagnostics - problems 2mT over-estimation and RH under-estimation especially in stable night situations The situation was worse in EPS (shown here):

ALARO-0 experience in Hungary7 Screen level diagnostics – new formula 2 meter temperature and relative humidity is calculated by ACNTCLS In neutral cases we have a logarithmic profile between the surface and the lowest model level This profile is modified on a stability dependent way In this modification a h is a parameter which: Was a constant original ALARO version We introduced a new Richardson number dependent formulation Surface heat capacity was also modified: Original: RCGMAX= RCTVEG(:)= 8*10 -6 New value: RCGMAX=RCTVEG(:)= 2*10 -5

ALARO-0 experience in Hungary8 Screen level diagnostics – results A two-weeks periods which was full with stable situations (EPS showed bigger improvement – figures here) 2meter temperature was mostly even better than in ALADIN reference

ALARO-0 experience in Hungary9 Screen level diagnostics – results A two-weeks periods which was full with stable situations (EPS showed bigger improvement – figures here) Relative humidity was just slightly better than originally in ALARO

ALARO-0 experience in Hungary10 Cloud settings – problems with ALARO During the winter-tests we had hardly any cases with 98–100% cloud cover It is very problematic in blocking situation when the Carpathian Basin could be cloud covered for more weeks

ALARO-0 experience in Hungary11 Cloud settings – old ALADIN version During the winter tests we had hardly any cases with 98–100% cloud cover It is very problematic in blocking situation when the Carpathian Basin could be cloud covered for more weeks

ALARO-0 experience in Hungary12 Cloud settings – new ALARO settings Modified variables in ACNEBN.F90 to Xu-Randall formulation More tests run but QXC was found as the best for 49 levels defaultalaroalaro_QXAalaro_QXBalaro_QXC LQXRTGHFALSETRUEFALSETRUE QXRTGH QXRAL

ALARO-0 experience in Hungary13 Cloud settings – new ALARO settings With the new settings we had more realistic cloud patterns The area of ~100% cloud cover became quite good

ALARO-0 experience in Hungary14 Cloud settings – new ALARO settings Verification for a three-week long period in January 2012 Better total cloudiness results

ALARO-0 experience in Hungary15 Cloud settings – new ALARO settings Verification for a three-week long period in January 2012 Better 2meter temperature results

ALARO-0 experience in Hungary16 Cloud settings – new ALARO settings Sometimes too much clouds in summer – AROME is ok, which is initialized from ALARO

ALARO-0 experience in Hungary17 Cloud and temperature error connection (?) x is the cloud error and y is the max/min temperature error. Diurnal periods on the left side, overnight periods on the right side

ALARO-0 experience in Hungary18 Too strong wind gusts – problems Strong cold front through Hungary – Strong wind especially in NW part of the country – 10 meter wind forecast was quite good

ALARO-0 experience in Hungary19 Too strong wind gusts - formulation The formulation of wind gust calculation was not modified in ALARO PCD (surface exchange coefficint) calculation has changed in this formula

ALARO-0 experience in Hungary20 Too strong wind gusts - FACRAF F ACRAF was simply modified from 15 to 10 – it decreased the wind gust over- estimation Further investigations (?)

ALARO-0 experience in Hungary21 Thank you for your attention!

ALARO-0 experience in Hungary22 Cloud settings – Vertical profiles RH and cloudiness vertical profiles in differen test versions at +0 ts alaro is the originally used ALARO version QXC is the recently operational ALARO version

ALARO-0 experience in Hungary23 Cloud settings – Vertical profiles RH and cloudiness vertical profiles in differen test versions at +1 ts alaro is the originally used ALARO version QXC is the recently operational ALARO version

ALARO-0 experience in Hungary24 Cloud settings – Vertical profiles RH and cloudiness vertical profiles in differen test versions at +12 ts alaro is the originally used ALARO version QXC is the recently operational ALARO version

ALARO-0 experience in Hungary25 Cloud settings – Vertical profiles Solid water content vertical profiles in differen test versions at +0 ts alaro is the originally used ALARO version alaro_init is with the initialization of hydrometeors

ALARO-0 experience in Hungary26 Cloud settings – Vertical profiles Solid water content vertical profiles in differen test versions at +12 ts alaro is the originally used ALARO version alaro_init is with the initialization of hydrometeors