Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 1 Latest Results on Climate Change and Implications for Road Transport Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer.

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Presentation transcript:

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 1 Latest Results on Climate Change and Implications for Road Transport Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer Universität Flensburg Vice Chair WG III IPCC PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Paris, September 19 th 2007

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 2 Structure of the presentation Anthropogenic climate change New results on climate change in 2007 (WG I) New results on climate change mitigation 2007 (WG III): –The need for mitigation –The timeframe for mitigation –The means for mitigation –The cost of mitigation Mitigation in the transport sector Conclusions

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 3 Anthropogenic climate change

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 4 The greenhouse effect Source: Houghton 2001

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 5 Source: IPCC 2007a (WG I, SPM, p. 3) Anthropogenic Influences on Climate Change CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O Concentrations - far exceed pre-industrial values - increased markedly since 1750 due to human activities Relatively little variation before the industrial era

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 6 New results on climate change in 2007 (WG I)

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 7 CO 2 CH 4 Long term changes in THG concentrations The atmospheric concentration of CO 2 and CH 4 in 2005 exceeds by far the natural range of the last 650,000 years Source: Pachauri und Jallow,

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 8 Global GHG emissions Source: IPCC 2007 (TS WG III, p. 4)

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 9 Global GHG emissions by sector in 2004 Source: IPCC 2007 (TS WG III, p. 5)

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 10 Increased global temperature change Source: IPCC 2007a (WG I TS p, 37) Warmest 12 years since 1850: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 11 Components of radiative forcing Source: IPCC 2007a (WG I, SPM p.4)

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 12 New results on climate change mitigation 2007: The need for mitigation

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 13 Source: IPCC 2007a (WG I, SPM p.14) Projections of Future Changes in Climate Best estimate for low scenario (B1) is 1.8°C (likely range is 1.1°C to 2.9°C), and for high scenario (A1FI) is 4.0°C (likely range is 2.4°C to 6.4°C). Broadly consistent with span quoted for SRES in TAR, but not directly comparable

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 14 New results on climate change mitigation 2007: The timeframe for mitigation

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 15 New stabilization scenarios Source: IPCC 2007 (TS WG III, p. 19)

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 16 Emissions for stabilization levels of 445 – 570ppmv CO 2 eq. Source: IPCC 2007 (SPM WG III, p. 23)

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 17 Arctic ice loss faster than forecast by AR4 Quelle: Stroeve et al S.2

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 18 New results on climate change mitigation 2007: The means for mitigation

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 19 Global economic mitigation potential 2030 Source: IPCC 2007 (SPM WG III, p. 11) Source: IPCC 2007 (SPM WG III, p. 10)

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 20 Global sectoral economic mitigation potential 2030 Quelle: IPCC 2007 (SPM WG III, p. 14)

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 21 Contributions to cumulated emission reductions until 2030 and and ppmv CO2-eq Source: IPCC 2007 (SPM WG III, S. p5) Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer: IPAC: Policy Assessment Model for China IMAGE: Integrated Model of Global Climate Change (RIMV) MESSAGE: IIASA integrated modelling framework AIM: Asian-Pacific Integrated Model Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer: IPAC: Policy Assessment Model for China IMAGE: Integrated Model of Global Climate Change (RIMV) MESSAGE: IIASA integrated modelling framework AIM: Asian-Pacific Integrated Model

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 22 New results on climate change mitigation 2007: The cost of mitigation

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 23 Global macro-economic mitigation costs for 2030 and 2050 Source: IPCC 2007 (SPM WG III, p. 26)

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 24 Mitigation in the transport sector

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 25 Source: Hydro Quebec 2006, p. 2 Energy consumption of different modes of transportation (Intercity travel in Canada)

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 26 Source: Hydro Quebec 2006, p. 2 Energy consumption of different modes of transportation (Urban travel in Canada)

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 27 More fuel efficient vehicles hybrid vehicles cleaner diesel vehicles biofuels modal shifts from road transport to rail and public transport non-motorised transport (cycling, walking) land-use and transport planning Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available Source: IPCC 2007 (SPM WG III, p. 18) Source: IPCC 2007 (SPM WG III, p. 13)

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 28 Conclusions

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 29 Conclusions Climate change is developing faster than we thought GHG concentrations need to be stabilized at even lower levels (455 – 490 ppmvCO2eq) to avoid serious damages The transport sector will have to share the burden of GHG reductions By 2050 the emissions from transportation need to be cut down to 50% of the 1990 global emissions Vastly improved efficiency will be the main contributor Changes to more efficient modes of transport will play a key role in urban areas Bio fuels will play an important role in the longer run

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 30 Thank you for your attention!

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 31 Source: IPCC 2007a (WG I TSp.62) Anthropogenic and natural forcings

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 32 Source: Hydro Quebec 2006, p. 5