6 April 2006 APEC Expert Group on Energy Efficiency & Conservation Exploring Roles for EGEE&C in Transport Efficiency with assistance from IEA World Energy Outlook 2005 Lee Schipper 2000

2 Supply Side IEA Energy Outlook 2005 World demand for energy grows 50% by % of that growth will be oil MENA – critical role in future supply –share of MENA reserves > share of current production. MENA increasingly important to trade 30 – 45% of world oil trade in 2030 Reference scenario; $40/bbl 2010 to $

3 IEA deferred investment scenario Reference scenario requires $Bn56 per year extraction/refining investment If that doesn’t happen… Deferred investment scenario gives oil prices 32% higher in 2030 $80/bbl in 2030? + increase in other fuels Issue is not the money

4 World Alternative Policy Scenario Significant slowing of energy demand growth $Bn1000 investment in EE /RE; gives -$Bn7000 saving cf $Bn6000 Deferred Investment. Important to make good start now Needs more than market signals What role for EGEE&C?

5 Transport is critical to APEC economies Market access: no transport = no market –Commodity economies based on shipping –Services economies based on air travel Transport is critical to liberalised trade Not accounted for. Kyoto etc exclude international transport What impact future fuel cost on trade?

6 The view from New Zealand

7 Key Developments in Travel Travel in IEA: Energy rising –Rise in Mobility with GDP, only slight Saturation –Small Savings except Air Travel, cars in N. America New Zealand –Big Rise in Travel over Entire Period: Incomes? –Boost in Car Ownership with Import of Used Cars –Good Fuel Savings (~20%) with medium sized Cars –Average Share of Collective Modes –Overall Picture: High Travel Relative to GDP

8 Per Capita Travel by Mode

9 Car and Personal Light Trucks Ownership and GDP

10 Car Use and GDP

11 On-road Fuel intensity and Carbon intensity of Automobiles Yaris

12 Key Developments for Freight Freight In IEA: Energy rising –Increases in Goods mobility with GDP, more trucks –Modest savings too small to offset mobility rise –Some Big Savers in Intensity: US, Australia New Zealand –Freight/GDP like Nordic Countries –Big Decline in Trucking Energy Intensity –Large Increase in Trucking Share. –Average Aggregate Freight Intensity –Small Decline in Freight Energy/GDP

13 Freight Haulage by Mode and GDP

14 Trucking Energy Intensities

15 Options Few alternatives to 46MJ/kg energy density of oil Alternatives exist for non-transport uses Mobile energy to stationary energy options for land based transport - modal changes essential But international transport?

16 What role for EGEE&C What role for APEC EGEE&C in transport?

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