Annular Variability and Change John C. Fyfe Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis.

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Presentation transcript:

Annular Variability and Change John C. Fyfe Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis

Acknowledging Boer and Flato Monahan, Ambaum, Stephenson, North, Lorenz and Teng Saenko, Zickfeld, Eby, Spence, Montenegro, Weaver, England and Stone

Arctic Oscillation

Antarctic Oscillation

Model has realistic annular modes, with positive trends under forced change Model does not suggest stratospheric involvement Conclusions

Main Directions Since 1999 Improving our basic understanding of the annular modes Assessing the impact of annular trends on the Southern Ocean

Analog Device for Climate Change

Climate Variability in the Past

Climate Variability in the Future X

The Southern Ocean Antarctica

Antarctic Oscillation

Zonal Wind Stress

ACC

Böning et al., Nature Geoscience, 2008

Winds Strengthen Isopycnals Steepen Eddies Strengthen Isopycnals Flatten But eddies are not resolved in GCMs

ACC Transport with Resolution

55ºS Antarctica CO 2 uptake DIC removal CO 2 outgassing DIC supply westerlies Human CO 2 emissions

Air-to-Sea Flux of CO 2 Outgas Uptake

Le Quére et al., Science, 2008

Adapted from Gille, Science, 2002

Conclusions Models predict intensifying ACC Models predict more carbon uptake Warming is attributed to human activity

Annular Variability and Change John C. Fyfe Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis

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