Analyzing National Security Policy Strategic Policy-Making

Concepts ■ Policy Arenas ■ Policy Cycles Model ■ Agenda setting ■ Agenda setting ■ Problem framing ■ Problem framing ■ Implementation ■ Implementation ■ Realist Model ■ Rational actor model ■ Rational actor model

Policy Arenas High Policy High Policy ■ Fundamental Decisions about Interests, Threats, & Responses ■ Fundamental Decisions about Interests, Threats, & Responses ■ Should we develop a national missile defense system and how much should we spend? ■ Should we develop a national missile defense system and how much should we spend? Middle Policy Middle Policy ■ Turning decisions into actions ■ Turning decisions into actions ■ What would be the most effective NMD configuration and how should the program be managed? ■ What would be the most effective NMD configuration and how should the program be managed? Low Policy Low Policy ■ Which competing interceptor design is best? ■ Technical details of actions ■ Technical details of actions

Policy Cycles Model Heuristic Heuristic ■ Focus analytic attention ■ Focus analytic attention Nested cycles Nested cycles ■ Policy moves down through arenas of action ■ Policy moves down through arenas of action ■ Implementation ■ Implementation

Agenda Setting What should the government “worry about?” What should the government “worry about?” ■ Controls subsequent stages in the policy cycle ■ Controls subsequent stages in the policy cycle Problem Framing Problem Framing ■ How should the government characterize the national issue? ■ How should the government characterize the national issue? ■ What is the causal story that drives the need for policy? ■ What is the causal story that drives the need for policy? Terrorism Example Terrorism Example ■ Is terrorism a surrogate for stated-based ■ E.g.., Iraq, Iran, Libya ■ E.g.., Iraq, Iran, Libya ■ Is it caused by poverty and desperation? ■ Is it caused by legitimate political-economic complaints against U.S. policies? ■ Is it caused by charismatic religious zealots?

Realist Model

“State” as the focal and unitary actor “State” as the focal and unitary actor ■ Actions can be understood without reference to domestic politics,leadership, etc. ■ States have interests that transcend domestic politics and leadership change ■ States have interests that transcend domestic politics and leadership change ■ Broad orientation of foreign and defense policies are invariant ■ Broad orientation of foreign and defense policies are invariant ■ Interests are fixed by geo-political-economic situation & state “character” ■ Interests are fixed by geo-political-economic situation & state “character” Decisions are based on strategic analysis of interests, threats, resources, etc. Decisions are based on strategic analysis of interests, threats, resources, etc. ■ Cost-Benefit Analysis ■ Cost-Benefit Analysis ■ Maximizing preferences ■ Maximizing preferences Requires the least amount of information to “predict” behavior Requires the least amount of information to “predict” behavior

Implications for How We Analyze National Security Decisions

Questions How do national security issues get on the government ’ s agenda in the realist model? How do national security issues get on the government ’ s agenda in the realist model? Where do policy options come from? Where do policy options come from? How are decisions made? How are decisions made? What do we assume about implementation? What do we assume about implementation?

Clinton National Security Policy

Clinton: National Security Objectives Primary Objectives of National Security Policy Primary Objectives of National Security Policy ■ Enhance U.S. Security ■ Enhance U.S. Security ■ Promote Domestic Prosperity ■ Promote Domestic Prosperity ■ Promote Free-Market Democracy overseas ■ Promote Free-Market Democracy overseas

Clinton: National Security Interests 3 Tires of Interests 3 Tires of Interests ■ Vital Interests: of broad overriding important survival, security, and vitality of our national entity; defense of US territory, citizens, allies, and economic well-being ■ Vital Interests: of broad overriding important survival, security, and vitality of our national entity; defense of US territory, citizens, allies, and economic well-being ■ Important Interests: affect importantly our well-being and the character of the world we live in ■ Important Interests: affect importantly our well-being and the character of the world we live in ■ Humanitarian interests ■ Humanitarian interests These dictate when we will use force. These dictate when we will use force.

Clinton: National Security threats Nuclear Proliferation Nuclear Proliferation Regional Instability Regional Instability Reversal Of Reform In Russia Reversal Of Reform In Russia Unfair Trade Practices Unfair Trade Practices Other Other ■ Terrorism ■ Terrorism ■ Drug trafficking ■ Drug trafficking ■ Refuge flows ■ Refuge flows ■ International environmental issues ■ International environmental issues

Clinton: Strategy Strong Defense Capability Strong Defense Capability ■ Terrorism Deter/defeat aggression in major regional conflict ■ Terrorism Deter/defeat aggression in major regional conflict Maintain credible overseas presence Maintain credible overseas presence ■ Rapid response ■ Rapid response ■ Prevent power vacuums ■ Prevent power vacuums

Clinton: Strategy Countering Countering ■ Arms Control is the core strategy Contribute to Multilateral peace operations Contribute to Multilateral peace operations Support Counterterrorism efforts & Other NS Objectives [of equal weight] Support Counterterrorism efforts & Other NS Objectives [of equal weight] ■ Arms In special circumstance may need to attack terrorist bases overseas with special ops ■ Pressure state sponsors of terrorism ■ Exploit legal mechanisms to punish terrorists ■ Help other govts. Improve their counter-terrorism capabilities

Clinton: Strategy Goals cannot be secured by acting unilaterally Goals cannot be secured by acting unilaterally ■ Collective decision-making ■ Collective decision-making ■ International collaboration & leadership ■ International collaboration & leadership Arms Control is essential for dealing with WMD Arms Control is essential for dealing with WMD

Clinton: Promoting Prosperity & Democracy Promote Promote ■ American competitiveness ■ American competitiveness ■ Access to foreign markets ■ Access to foreign markets ■ International Macroeconomic coordination ■ International Macroeconomic coordination ■ Energy security ■ Energy security ■ Emphasis on efficiency, conservation & alternative technologies ■ Emphasis on efficiency, conservation & alternative technologies Promoting Free Market Democracy Promoting Free Market Democracy ■ Focus on regions where we have strongest security concerns ■ Focus on regions where we have strongest security concerns ■ Russia ■ Democratic Peace theory: major powers that are free-market democracies will not wage war ■ Democratic Peace theory: major powers that are free-market democracies will not wage war

Questions Confronting the Realist Model Are the Interests enumerated by Clinton(1997) significantly different from those enumerated by Bush, or any U.S. President? Are the Interests enumerated by Clinton(1997) significantly different from those enumerated by Bush, or any U.S. President? ■ How & Why? How Are the strategies and approaches for protecting those national interests articulated by Clinton different from those of Bush, or some other president? How Are the strategies and approaches for protecting those national interests articulated by Clinton different from those of Bush, or some other president? ■ How & Why?

Inferences Realist Model may be most appropriate for analyzing actions when vital interests are at stake – in crises. Realist Model may be most appropriate for analyzing actions when vital interests are at stake – in crises. Realist Model may have little explanatory power for non-crisis national security policymaking Realist Model may have little explanatory power for non-crisis national security policymaking