Security Environment U.S. Japan China South Asia

U.S. in Asia-Pacific Begins with the annexation of Hawaii and the Philippines in 1898 Strategic importance of Asia-Pacific has been rising to the U.S. Pacific War ( ) Korean War ( ) Vietnam War ( )

U.S. National Interest U.S. national interest in Asia Regional peace & stability –presence of 100,000 military personnel Expansion of democracy Market economy Individual rights Counter-terrorism

Japan One of the most important components of U.S. security policy in Asia-Pacific region U.S.-Japan alliance survived 4 decades thanks to the Cold War United States-Japan Security Treaty of 1951 –did not oblige U.S. to protect Japan –revised in 1960 to add ``prior consultation”

U.S.-Japan Guidelines for U.S.-Japan Defense Cooperation in 1978 –maintain a credible U.S. defense commitment to Japan –``the framework `to fight’ the new Cold War” Guidelines for U.S.-Japan Defense Cooperation in 1997

Self-Defense Forces

Obstacles Obstacles to Japan’s use of military forces overseas: domestic political opposition Asian neighbor’s wartime memories economic recession aging population

China’s Reemergence Largest population Largest army Second largest economy Open to foreign trade –trade volume $3.9 trillion in 2012 Foreign direct investment –Stock of inward FDI $1.3 trillion (No. 2) –Stock of outward FDI $0.5 trillion (No. 13)

Taiwan Relationship between Taipei and Beijing –1950s through 1970s: continuation of the GMD-CCP civil war ( ) Beijing: ``to liberate Taiwan” Taipei: ``to gloriously retake the mainland” –1980s: Beijing: attracting investments from Taiwan Taipei: allowing investment on mainland

U.S. Strategic Ambiguity 3 Joint Communiqués between PRC and US in 1972, 1979, and 1982 Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 Strategic Ambiguity: –ambiguous commitment to Taiwan’s defense –ambiguous policy on arms sale to Taiwan –ambiguity on the definition of ``One China”

Dual Deterrence No provocation on either side Maintain stability and status quo

South China Sea

India-Pakistan Wars , Kashmir 1965, Kashmir 1971, East Pakistan (Bangladesh)