BASELINE SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS EXERCISE SES development using country/region storylines

Drivers Factors important for shaping future of your sector (for instance energy, agriculture and food security, health, coastal zone, …) over next 20 years Some are given (climate change, population growth) Others are uncertain and will vary depending upon decisions made in region (markets, agricultural policy).

Step 1: Identify Drivers to the year 2030 Think back over last 30 years: what were the key drivers that shaped today’s situation? Think of next 20 years: what will be the key drivers? How will these key drivers interact? Define 4 scenarios Develop storyline and if possible add quantitative information.

Questions to ask Yourself when Developing Storylines Would globalisation slow or even begin to reverse? Will we see changed political entities in the future (eg. strong regionalisation or resource-based boundaries)? What pressure would climate change put on developing countries which are less resilient to its impacts? Will these pressures be manageable? How co-ordinated will the global political response to climate change be? What relationships might evolve between low-income countries and the rest of the world? What will become of overseas development aid – where will climate change fit in? How high will climate change sit on the political agendas of high and middle-income countries Will mitigation mechanisms be effective?

Examples of Questions Towards Development of Storyline for Food Security and Agriculture What development and investment choices will your country make in order to meet its projected food security needs? What mix of agricultural production and food imports is desired, and how does this mix enhance or detract from adaptation capacity, vulnerability, and food security of the country? Will development emphasize globalization and increased reliance on imported food? If so, what type of industrialization is desired and are the resources available to undertake that pathway? The questions need to be tailored depending on national circumstances.

SRES A storylines

SRES B Storylines