LACE Data Assimilation Working Days June 2011, Budapest HARMONIE DA suite at KNMI Jan Barkmeijer With contributions from: Cisco de Bruijn, Siebren de Haan, Gert-Jan Marseille, Emiel van der Plas, and Wim de Rooy.

Content - Description KNMI DA suite - Monitoring tools - Problems encountered - Future developments

3 The KNMI Data assimilation suite Initial run at 15 November 2010, but many changes (experimental status) since then. Runs at ECMWF, using hourly boundaries and observation set from a H7.2 Hirlam suite at KNMI (ectrans is used to tranfer data vice-versa) Cycling time is 6h and a 24h forecast is produced at 00 and 12 UTC. Integration area (300x300 gp at 2.5km grid resolution) covers the Netherlands and vertical resolution is 60 levels (Meteo-France definition). Lowest model level around 9m Harmonie model cycle H36h1.2 with some modifications Data is processed e.g. at DMI/KNMI for monitoring purposes.

Area definition 200x x x x500

LBC data from Hirlam forecast for both runs 300x x400 RADAR

Computation of background error statistics -Used the recipe as described on the Hirlam wiki page for Harmonie Data- assimilation -Central here is the creation of a series of downscaled Harmonie 6h forecasts for at 00 UTC, using 4 members of the ECMWF EPS

Confusion w.r.t. virtual and real temperature (LSPRT) DMI Harmonie suite KNMI old Courtesy Nils Gustafsson

After correction DMI KNMI new

Content - Description KNMI DA suite - Monitoring tools - Problems encountered - Future developments

What datasets are being used? SYNOPU,VZT AIREPU,VT RADIOSONDEU,VZTQ Mode-SU,VT

What data sets are being used (2)? Mode-S drops out

o-a/o-b statistics for April negative bias

The Danmark Monotoring Facility

Monitoring with KNMI Parametrization Testbed (KPT) 1D column at Cabauw from 3D run

Occurrence of fog

Occurrence of fog (2)

Content - Description KNMI DA suite - Monitoring tools - Problems encountered - Future developments

Modis VIS satellite image 13 th of May UTC Cloud cover EDMFM and cloud scheme changes Increase variance computation in the cloud scheme to alleviate the on-off character in the generation of cloud

Instabilities in the canopy model over sea (ECUME)

Using Meteo-France 60 level definition

Switching off ECUME over sea

Occurrence of negative q in the analysis Also other hydrometeors are affected (e.g. cloud-ice and cloud-water) First-guess Analysis

Solution: set GFL >=0 at analysis time

Impact on 24-h accumulated precipitation original analysis modified

Vertical nesting strategy 1.3hPa 10hPa 0.01hPa

Vertical nesting strategy 1.3hPa 10hPa 0.01hPa Since 1 June 2011 a parallel 3dvar suite runs at ECMWF (cy36h1.3) and with ECMWF boundaries

T+12h forecast for T2m valid 5 June 2011 at 12 UTC HIRLAM LBC ECMWF LBC

RADAR 3DVAR + HIRLAM LBC 400x x500

RADAR 3DVAR + ECMWF LBC 400x x500

FUTURE PLANS -Get radar data-assimilation running -Implementation of a 800x800xL60 Harmonie suite at KNMI, 3dvar with cycling time of 3 hour (or less) -Add more q observations: GPS, Cloud data (e.g. cover) -Develop more tools for monitoring (MetEvaluation) -Coupling with other applications: surge model, LOTOS (air pollution model) -Increase research effort on DA+EPS: + timing/location of convection + 4dvar without nonlinear updates