Paul E. Chiodo Deployment Director, Lean Six Sigma Certified Lean Six Sigma Master Black Belt US Army Armament Research, Development & Engineering Center 4 March 2008 PANEL DISCUSSION: Probabilistic Technology Challenges & Applications for Defense and Aerospace Success Conference on Quality in Space and Defense Industries CQSDI 2008

“PT Challenges & Applications for Defense & Aerospace Success” PURPOSE: Bring together Defense and Aerospace Leaders in the field of Nondeterministic Analysis & Probabilistic Technology (Techniques and Methods) to discuss the emerging Requirements, Strategies, Key issues and Challenges, and their Path Forward in the area of Probabilistic Technology. OBJECTIVES: –Provide an Introduction to Probabilistic Technology –Identify Needs, Challenges, and New efforts –Discuss Collaborative efforts between NASA, Army/DOD, Industry & Academia. –Introduce the Path Forward –Discuss what is being done to develop and deploy the technology –Discuss the integrated competency approach –Introduce the Role of ASQ –Encourage involvement and Show how to get involved in this Culture change process

“PT Challenges & Applications for Defense & Aerospace Success” Moderator: Mr. Paul E. Chiodo Panel members : Representing: NASA, Army, Industry, ASQ –Dr. Shiver, Deputy Director, Safety & Mission Assurance at NASA(MSFC) –Dr. M. Khalessi; CEO/President PredictionProbe, Inc. –Mr. Brian LeHouillier, ASQ Managing Director –Ms. Pam Caruso, Assistant to the Director, NASA - Marshall Space Flight Center –Mr. Bob Kuper, Competency Dean for Reliability Engineering, & the Program Manager, Reliability for Future Force Technology Program Panel Participants

Challenges & Direction Needed To Develop & Deploy a Culture based on Probabilistic Design & Analysis Principles Focus: –Drive Culture Change for Army, NASA and on National Scale –Use Probabilistic Methods to enhance National competitiveness. Bottom-line: –Make US Government Agencies and Industry more competitive, effective, efficient using Probabilistic methods/technology Basic Problems/Challenges: –Lacked the National talent pool for broad and timely applications of highly advanced Probabilistic Technology & Computational Probabilistic Methods. –University Curriculum void: not preparing & promoting applications for S&T, Engineers, Economists, Business/Finance for exceptional value of advanced Probabilistic Methods –Lack the leadership, program management and practitioner knowledge of these advanced methods and their potential –Lack the Processes, Tools, and Methods and a Framework for deployment/integration, accountability, measurement and continuous improvement

Integration of Probabilistic Technology with DFLSS Critical Role for Probabilistic Technology: “Enhancing Decision- making structures across the LC –Integration with DFLSS, Program Mgt & System Engineering –DFLSS build into Product Development Process (PDP) –PT Becomes a Key Component of LSS – LC Process Focus PT- Enhanced DFLSS: Innovation and Conceptual Design – “Rapid Innovation” PT- Enhanced DFLSS: Robust Design, Reliability-Based Design Optimization, Axiomatic Design PT- Enhanced DMAIC/DMALC: Process and Product Improvement Army Plan PT for

Challenges & Direction Needed To Develop & Deploy a Culture based on Probabilistic Design & Analysis Principles SO WHAT WE NEED MOST: A Strong, Multi-tiered Education & Integration Framework Are we Moving in the Proper Direction? In the Army we are using Our Business Transformation Framework (Lean Six Sigma) as our PT Integration Platform Primary Emphasis: Education and Integration –Then Measurement and Continuous Improvement Working Closely with National Experts –Probabilistic Technology – Tools, Methods, Best Practices –Design for Lean Six Sigma – Better Process and Tools –Axiomatic Design – Additional Tools for Design simplicity, and improved reliability Developed the Probabilistic Technology Community (PTC) with ASQ Developing a “Government Only” variant to enhance Integration Developing Body’s of Knowledge(BOK), Standards & Guidelines.