Party and the Tea Party Among Aiken County Voters Bob Botsch Political Science USC Aiken

USC Aiken Surveys Began in early 1980s – Research Methods classes Formed Organization for Public Service and contractual work: SSBRL—Social Science and Business Research Lab Reports on line at: Perform wide variety of research/surveys

Special Surveys under Contract

Aiken County General Population Telephone Surveys

Exit Polls in Even Numbered Years

The Long Term: Party ID Over Time

Party ID Over Time-2 Party Split

Gender Gap (2010 Exit Poll) Males: 22% Dem – 57% Rep Females: 35% Dem – 52% Rep

Ethnicity Whites: 13% Dem – 67% Rep Blacks: 92% Dem – 3% Rep Turnout: Blacks comprise 25% of the population but only 20% of voters If Dem won ALL black votes, still need 30 of the remaining 80 percentage points of the white vote, or 38% of the total white vote

Age: averages Democrats average age: 51 Republicans average age: 56

Age Distribution

Regional Identification Native Southerners: 28% Dem – 57% Rep Converted Southrn: 21% Dem – 59% Rep Non-Southerners: 39% Dem – 39% Rep Non-Southerners comprise about 12% of all voters; Native Southerners about 68%

Religious Fundamentalism Fundamentalists: 25% Dem – 64% Rep Non-Fundamentalists: 30% Dem – 49% Rep

Ideology of all Voters Hard for non-conservatives to win in Aiken County – Liberals comprised 15% of all voters – Mid Road/Not Sure’s: 27% of all voters – Conservatives: 58% of all voters

Issue: Irritated when hear people speaking Spanish in public? Democrats: 36% Irritated – 65% Not Independents: 47% Irritated – 54% Not Republicans: 54% Irritated – 46% Not Overall: 47% Irritated – 53% Not

Issue: Social Security—keep or phase out w/ voluntary savings Democrats: 97% Keep – 3% Phase Out Independents: 85% Keep – 15% Phase Out Republicans: 84% Keep – 16% Phase Out

Issue: Health Care—cover all; only old, poor child, disabled; or free market Democrats: 94% all; 4% o/pc/d; 2% fm Independents: 43% all; 21% o/pc/d; 37% fm Republicans: 17% all; 29% o/pc/d; 55% fm All voters: 43% all; 20% o/pc/d; 37% fm

Issue: School Vouchers— oppose b/c take $ from public schools; support b/c would increase competition Democrats: 70% oppose – 30% support Independents: 56% oppose – 44% support Republicans: 37% oppose – 64% support All voters: 50% oppose – 50% support

Issue: Abortion—pro life; mid ground; or pro choice Democrats: 14% p/l; 26% mid; 61% p/c Independents: 14% p/l; 35% mid; 51% p/c Republicans: 26% p/l; 46% mid; 28% p/c All voters: 20% p/l; 39% mid; 41% p/c

Issue: Obama is really a Muslim? no – yes – not sure Democrats: 93% no – 2% yes – 6% n/s Independents: 52% no – 27% yes – 21% n/s Republicans: 30% no – 42% yes – 28% n/s All voters: 52% no – 28% yes – 20% n/s

Tea Party Supporters Supporters: 1% Dem – 82% Rep Non-supporters: 57% Dem – 25% Rep Tea party Supporters comprised 43% of all voters And 65% of all Republican voters Non-Tea Party Republicans are quite different than Tea Party Supporters—as we shall see!

How Tea Party Supporters Differ Should politicians compromise? Dem: 90% Ind: 96% Rep: 82% TP: 64% Support school vouchers? Dem: 25% Ind: 22% Rep: 38% TP: 60% Health care run totally by free market? Dem: 2% Ind: 15% Rep: 47% TP: 61% Religion very important in vote choice? Dem: 24% Ind: 9% Rep: 25% TP: 34%

Continued Never bothered by Spanish in public? Dem: 64% Ind: 60% Rep: 55% TP: 42% Phase out Social Security? Dem: 2% Ind: 6% Rep: 9% TP: 21% Prefer helpful leaders over strong leaders? Dem: 88% Ind: 72% Rep: 58% TP: 49% Cut spending over stim econ & save programs? Dem: 9% Ind: 41% Rep: 61% TP: 86%

continued Pro choice on abortion? Dem: 56% Ind: 63% Rep: 41% TP: 22% Self-identify as Religious Fundamentalists? Dem: 27% Ind: 11% Rep: 28% TP: 38% Family income > $50k last year? Dem: 44% Ind: 65% Rep: 59% TP: 68% Political Ideology: Moderates? Dem: 50% Ind: 53% Rep: 22% TP: 9%

Conclusions Current huge advantage for GOP and conservatives – unless more moderate Republicans become alienated by Tea Party extremism – Note: county less conservative on issues than in labels Long term demographics favor more competitive elections – Because of age and non-southerners