Magnificent And Marvelous Development of Telecoms & I.T – What Next? By DR T.H. CHOWDARY Director: Center for Telecom Management and Studies Fellow: Tata Consultancy Services Chairman: Pragna Bharati (intellect India ) Former: Chairman & Managing Director Videsh Sanchar Nigam Limited & Information Technology Advisor, Government of Andhra Pradesh T: +91(40) (O) ® F: +91 (40) World Telecom & Information Society Day: IE, Hyd 17 th May 2012

Apply, Apply – No Reply Haath haath mein Cell Phone Magnificent, marvelous development of Telecoms & I.T due to Liberalisation End to monopolies New technologies No sector matches telecoms

Spectacular Rise of Affordability Year (1) PCI (2) Year’s spend on phones (3) Ratio (4) (2)to(3) TelephonesTeledensity 2004Rs. 10,000 1:110m1% 2012Rs. 65,000Rs. 2,50021:1950m80%

S452_Nov20104 PCI A X TSP Time (a) Affordability A PCI/ Tele-Service Price - PCI: Per Capita Income - TSP: Telephone Service Price - A: Affordability How we achieved this thc_ctms

The Road Traversed NTP 1994, NTP 1999, NTP 2012 bear out the truth Vaasaamsi jeernani yatha vihaaya Navaani grihnaati naro-aparani New facts, new policies Supply is creating demand – – new applications, new devices, new services Relentless migration to electronic form- e-commerce, e-books, e-learning, e-ticketing, e- marriage, e-talaq too…

Spanner in the Wheel TRAI’s high-10 times more – reserve price for auction of 2G spectrum Prices would go up 3 to 10 times Rural penetration & usage suffers Telcos will wilt- 2G is not comparable to 3G, 4G… Urban teledensity -85% Rural = 40% New markets in rural areas -capital intensive -revenue poor

Flaws in TRAI’s Views Migrating 2G Telcos to 1800 MHZ Parts of Existing network to be abandoned More cell sites; nearly double Value of spectrum cannot be linearly projected TRAI expects 50% data on 2G; but that would go to 3G/4G operators; its price rise is under- estimate

Role of TRAI Is its mandate to generate/increase revenue to government ? or Increase affordability and coverage & variety Why cell towers need to take unified licence and pay a revenue share. TRAI assumes a revenue of Rs cr to Government from Tower cos! Why should FDI be brought down from 100% to 74%. Do electric power transmission towers and distribution poles require licence & give revenue share?

DOT- Promotes or Retards Departments of I.T, Electronics, Renewable Energy, Tourism plead to promote the interest of their charges. DOT restricts, burdens, pains and punishes. “Abominable no-men” … nay sayers”

What May be Done (1/2) Wind up Telecom Commission. Recharge DOT. Purge the TRAI – Remove IAS, from TRAI (lovers of permit-licence-quota raj) Remove Deputationists from DOT (practitioners of monopoly)

What may be done to TRAI (2/2) Put liberal economists wealth creators & great businessmen. Social scientists.  Engineers and IAS people without vision and a social philosophy could be disastrous. DHANYAWAD: THANK YOU