“Dilma Rousseff’s First Year in Office: Challenges & Positive Results” David Fleischer Political Science Inst. University of Brasília "Why Brazilians Like Dilma Despite The Bad News?” Brazil Institute Woodrow Wilson Center Washington, DC January 11, 2012

Public Opinion Surveys: Dilma’s Approval Rating Improves Better than Previous Presidents  after their third month in office Dilma Rousseff201147% Lula200343% FH Cardoso199539% Itamar Franco199234% Fernando Collor199036%

Datafolha. D i l m a L u l a Gov’t. Evaluation Mar. June Aug. April June Sept. Good/Excellent 47% 49% 48% 43% 42% 45% Regular 34% 38% 39% 40% 43% 42% Bad/Terrible7% 10% 11% 10% 11% 10% DK/NR 12% 3% 2% 7% 4% 3%

CNI / Ibope D i l m a L u l a Evaluation of President Mar. July Sept. Dec. Mar. June Sept. Dec. Approve 73% 67% 71% 72% 75% 70% 69% 66% Disapprove 12% 25% 21% 21% 13% 18% 24% 25% DK/NR 14% 8% 8% 7% 12% 11% 8% 9% D i l m a L u l a Evaluation of Gov’t. Mar. July Sept. Dec. Mar. June Sept. Dec. Good/Excel. 56% 48% 51% 56% 51% 43% 43% 41% Regular 27% 36% 34% 32% 36% 38% 40% 43% Bad/Terrible 5% 12% 11% 9% 7% 11% 14% 14% DK/NR 11% 4% 4% 3% 6% 8% 4% 2%

Because Dilma Rousseff was elected on the “coattails” of Lula’s popularity in Oct. 2010,  80% approval rating Many thought her government would be “Lula’s third term” Only in part:  16 cabinet ministers were holdovers from Lula’s government

BUT Dilma “came into her own” up front  strong human rights positions - Domestic  “Truth Commission” - International  “Responsibility while Protecting” - Libya & Syria

Some of Dilma’s “torture colleagues” who were special guests at her inauguration reception at Itamaraty.

- Dilma did not “ignore” corruption accusations - Lula & Cardoso “looked the other way” - cabinet “housecleaning” - SIX ministers replaced - PMDB (3), PR, PCdoB & PDT - all were Lula holdovers - these parties did not leave the coalition

Strong majority in Congress - Lula campaigned to defeat PSDB & DEM senators in Opposition weakened (new PSD in Oct. 2011) - can not convoke CPIs Some “strains” with PMDB coalition partner - austerity budget cuts - release of budget items & federal appointments In 2011, Dilma Gov’t. approved almost everything - Minimum Wage calculation - DRU - “Truth Commission” - Super Cade (anti-trust/pro-competition)

Some “defeats”: - forest code vote (modifications in 2012) - petroleum royalties (modifications in 2012) - New “health tax” - rejected

Chamber Senate Parties Governent PT PMDB PSD PSB PDT PR PP PTB PCdoB Other Opposition PSDB DEM PPS Other Other

The Economy : - GDP declines – 7.5%(2010)  2.9%(2011)? - IPCA inflation in 2011  6.50% (upper limit) - IPC-C1 was 5.98% - New job creation reduced - Consumer buying down slightly - IP was up +2.5% YoY in November/11 - Unemployment very low  5.2% in Nov/11 - Average salaries have increased - Strong demand for certain job skills - Selic rates down – 12.5%  11.0%

December 2011  January 2012 Cabinet Reform in January (or February):

- Ministers should “step down” to run for Mayor - Haddad (PT) Education  São Paulo - Mercadante (PT), S&T  Education(?) Maybe PSB  S&T - Bezerra (PSB) Integration  Recife - accusations: budget amendments, nepotism?  “friendly fire”?? ???  Integration - Iriny Lopes (PT) Women  Vitória - This Ministry might be “preserved”

- Other ministers might be “replaced”: - Labor, Paulo Roberto Pinto (PDT) interim - MTPS?? - Cities, Mário Negromonte (PP) - might be dismembered (??) - Culture, Ana Hollanda (PT) - Ag. Development, Afonso Florence (PT) - MDIC, Fernando Pimentel (PT) - accusations: “enrichment” as consultant  “friendly fire”??

-Might lose cabinet “status”: - Fishing (PT)  Agriculture - Ports (PSB)  Transportation - Sec. Women (PT)  Justice (probably not) - Human Rights (PT)  Justice - Social Equality (PT)  Justice - Strategic Affairs (PMDB)  Planning - Tourism (PMDB)  MDIC  Accommodate the PSD in Cabinet

What to watch for in 2012?

Municipal elections in October - PT “accommodation” with allied parties - task Lula might reassume in March - PMDB, compete “head-to-head” with PT in 14 of 26 state capital cities - in 2008, competed in only eight capitals - PSB, might expand its “coverage” in PSDB, DEM & PPS – might decline  2014(??) - expansion at municipal level means party elects more deputies in 2014 (& vice-versa)

Finalization of legislation: - Forestry Code - Petrol Law – distribution of royalties - Law “regulating” World Cup (2014) & Olympics (2016)

Foreign Affairs: - Dilma to visit Washington in March - Rio+20 in June - G-20 financial/economic debate  European “problem”  Reform of IMF & World Bank  “Currency Warfare” - UN decisions on Syria & Iran  Human Rights investigations  Iranian nuclear program  Increased sanctions possible(?)