The Future – Clear Blue Skies or Dark Stormy Clouds

Baby Bugmuncher - Olliver, V 2001

What will your next hour look like? -An Ice Breaker -A exercise using one Future Tool » -Futures Triangles -An overview of two other tools » - Causal Layered Analysis » -Maps of Future Success -Some examples from using these tools -Future up Clear Blue skies or Dark Stormy clouds?

Ingredients for Today -Chocolate -Humour -Thinking -Controversy

Ice Breaker - Turn to the person next to you -Tel them something about yourself that is unusual and which most people don’t know -Very briefly I would like three people to volunteer to stand up and tell us something about the other person. -Where are you from – tell us a bit about yourselves and what you would like to get out of today’s section.

Introduction Strategic Planning Process Tell me of your experiences Is it a “Rear View Mirror” exercise? How do we get the most out of it if the pathway forward is often difficult to see or visualise. How do you make your goals become reality and do you have a sense that they can be realistically achieved. What could the future look like?

FUTURES CONE Potential Possible Plausible Probable Preferable Potential Time

Foresight Tools Input methods: - Environmental Scanning Delphi Technique Lit searches Analytical methods: - Emerging Issues & Trend Analysis Futures Triangles Forecasting Backcasting Interpretive Methods: -Causal Layered Analysis Systems Thinking Prospective Methods: -Scenarios Visioning Problem Precluding

Futures Triangle Weight of the Past The Push of the Present Pull of the Future

Futures Triangle Weight of the Past: What has happened in the past, how have things changed, what forces were at work to bring about the change, what barriers have there been to change and what is getting in the way? The Push of the present. What are the issues of the present, who is applying pressure in a particular area, what trends are pushing us towards probable futures and if there is a change coming where is this change coming from and what forces are at work? Pull of the future. What is pulling the issue into the future, what future can people see and what are the different competing views of the future based on the history and the present?

Exercise in the Future Triangles I need 3 groups of 3 volunteers to work in teams. One from each group will need to report back to the workshop on their findings. These teams will work together while each of you will work on your own to see how you apply the Futures Triangle. There are three topics: – Care for the Aged and Disabled – Space Exploration/ Travel – Regulations

Futures Triangle Weight of the Past: What has happened in the past, how have things changed, what forces were at work to bring about the change, what barriers have there been to change and what is getting in the way? The Push of the present. What are the issues of the present, who is applying pressure in a particular area, what trends are pushing us towards probable futures and if there is a change coming where is this change coming from and what forces are at work? Pull of the future. What is pulling the issue into the future, what future can people see and what are the different competing views of the future based on the history and the present?

Exercise in the Future Triangles Report back and discussion around each topic What conclusions do each of you make? Discussion on the three topics: – Care for the Aged and Disabled – Space Exploration/ Travel – Regulations Did this method assist you to think about what the future would be like: – Possible – Plausible – Probable – Preferable

Two Other Tools Detailed Causal Layered Analysis: Level One: Litany – Pop level – Visible - what you see on the nightly news. Level Two: Systemic – Cultural, Social and Political Causes. Level Three: Discourses - Concerned with Structure and how society works – Denominated by Worldviews. Level Four: Level of Myth and Metaphor – These are the deep stories within us, how we make sense of our lives. Myths and Legends.

Two Other Tools Problem Precluding: Possibility of Success Evaluation (POSE) Relative Freedom Complexity Environment

Problem Precluding Possibility Of Success Evaluation (POSE) Increases Increases in difficulty Zone Environment Relative Zone Freedom Zone Zone One Two Three Four Increases Complexity

Two Examples KPI Home Care Business

More Information Ken Wilber - Ray Kurzweil - Swinburne Strategic Foresight - r-of-Strategic-Foresight-CMSF640/local r-of-Strategic-Foresight-CMSF640/local Sohail Inayatullah Causal Layered Analysis POSE –

The Future – Clear Blue Skies or Dark Stormy Clouds ?

Thank you for taking part and may your Future be what you create it to be.