Scenario modelling for land use evolution Hedwig van Delden, RIKS ESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for 2050 Workshop at Comittee of the Regions 11 October 2013, Brussels

Questions How will the current land use pattern evolve over time, given the current behaviour of spatial actors? How will spatial policies influence future land use dynamics? How will assumptions on socioeconomics and changes in behaviour influence future land use dynamics?

The Metronamica model

Land use change over time Time Loop Land use & Interaction weights & SuitabilityZoning & & Accessibility Potential for change = Transition Rule Cells change to land-use with highest potential until regional demands are met. Land use at time T+1 Regional demands

Employment by MASST3 Probability for Urbanization Baseline 2050

Scenario assumptions compared to baseline Scenario A - MEGAs Scenario B - Cities Scenario C - Regions GDP and population From socio- economic models Density and urban form Lower density in metropolitan areas. Clustering conform baseline. More compact and clustered development. More space/person in regions. Diffuse development. PolicyCAP liberalization, less focus on LFA. Protection of Natura sites conform baseline CAP similar to baseline, stronger focus on LFA and stronger protection of Natura sites Infrastructure & accessibility Input from MOSAIC model plus attraction to main road/rail Input from MOSAIC model plus attraction to local road/rail

Employment by MASST3 Difference in Urban Surface Scenario A and Baseline (2030)

Employment by MASST3 Difference in Urban Surface Scenario C and Baseline (2030)

Employment by MASST3 Agriculture in HNV farmland Scenario C Regions vs Baseline (2030)

Employment by MASST3 Agriculture in HNV farmland Scenario B Cities vs Baseline (2030)

To maximize effects of policies, it is important to consider the context in which they operate and their effects at a detailed spatial level Urban sprawl is a powerful process. To mitigate uncontrolled sprawl, strong zoning regulations and enforcement are necessary. Areas near existing cities and along the (Mediterranean) coast are most under pressure Socio-economic demands will drive metropoles to higher density levels than the current ones Increase of land area for urban use isnt inherently constrained by administrative boundaries. Policy interventions need to consider spill-over effects on neighbouring regions Key messages

What is the future of the agricultural areas: will the ongoing decline provide more space for nature or will it be used for food security and/or bio-energy? Should valuable landscapes be protected through agricultural subsidies? Should metropoles densify or should spill-overs to neighbouring regions be allowed or even stimulated? Could the development of green belts be a solution to minimize urban sprawl and increase the quality of life? Considerations for the Vision 2050

Further information: (working documents)