Parallel Workshop Session: Workshop 1.2 Demographic Change ESPON Internal Seminar 2012 Territorial Development Opportunities in Europe and its Neighbourhood Fostering Global Competitiveness

The European population is increasing slowly over time. A trend of east-west polarisation of the pattern of demographic development is visible, mostly due to negative migration balance in eastern Europe. Migration plays a key role for population growth in Europe. Europe is getting older. In 2030, the median age in some regions will exceed 50 years. Towards 2030, population growth will be significantly higher in countries neighbouring Europe to the south which may sustain a particular migratory pressure on Europe. Stimulus map Population in EU and its neighborhood in

Workshop 1.2 – key questions for ESPON projects 3 1.What are the main territorial trends or observations from your project - for Europe, its regions and cities - in relation to population development, migration flows, labour market and social inclusion? Please select maximum 2 maps from your project and include maximum 5 bullet points that could illustrate and synthesize this question. Maximum use 3-4 slides for showing ESPON evidence on this question. 2. How do developments in Europe´s neighborhood influence the territorial development in Europe and vice-versa (according to your mind / your ESPON findings)? Please include maximum 3 bullet points that could illustrate and synthesize this question, as much as possible based on your project results and on the case studies developed. Please use 1 slide to answer to this question. 3. What opportunities and challenges exists for Europe and its neighbourhood for increasing competitiveness through further cooperation and integration? (according to your mind / your ESPON findings)? Please include maximum 3 bullet points that could illustrate and synthesize this question. Please use 1 slide to answer to this question.

Workshop speakers 4 Claude Grasland, M4D – ESPON Database 2013 Phase II Daniel Rauhut, SeGI – Services of general interest Pierre Beckouche, ITAN – European neighbour regions Petri Kahila, TIPSE – Territorial dimension of poverty and social exclusion in Europe Andreu Ulied, ET2050 – Territorial scenarios and visions for Europe

Parallel Workshop Session: Workshop 1.2 Demographic Change Claude Grasland, M4D ESPON Internal Seminar 2012 Territorial Development Opportunities in Europe and its Neighbourhood Fostering Global Competitiveness

Analysis of population variation better described in a functional neighborhood of 1 hour by car (eliminate MAUP effect). Population decline in eastern Germany, Danubian countries, Baltic countries, northern Europe … Population increase but in area that are strongly affected by economic crisis (Spain, Ireland, Italy, …) => What are the respective role of migratory and natural balances? 6 Trends in Europe

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8 Combination of natural and migratory decline (blue) is characteristic from eastern Europe Combination of natural and migratory increase (red) is characteristic from western Europe Increase related to migration (dark orange) is vulnerable to economic crisis. Increase related to natural increase (light orange) is more resilient to crisis.

9 Europe´s neighborhood influence The global trends of population variation in EU + neighborhood ( ) is a crucial driver for the future ( ). Western part is characterized by equivalent amount of population growth on both shore of Mediterranean sea. Eastern part is characterized by very strong disparities of population decline (north) and population growth (south).

10 Europe´s neighborhood influence 3D- view provides a better appreciation of the intensity of demographic contrasts.

11 Opportunities for Europe Potential of population in a gaussian neighborhood of 80 km reveals strong peaks inside and outside EU.

12 Opportunities for Europe Potential of population in a gaussian neighborhood of 80 km reveals strong peaks inside and outside EU. But what is the influence of external population on EU potential (and vice versa) ?

13 Opportunities for Europe Potential of population in a gaussian neighborhood of km reveals strong peaks inside and outside EU. But what is the influence of external population on EU potential (and vice versa) ? Potential of population in a gaussian neighborhood of km reveals the existence of a wide area of potential contact between EU and neighb.

14 Opportunities for Europe Potential of population in a gaussian neighborhood of km reveals strong peaks inside and outside EU. But what is the influence of external population on EU potential (and vice versa) ? Potential of population in a gaussian neighborhood of km reveals the existence of a wide area of potential contact between EU and neighb. Which strategy can be developed by EU for the development of this potential ?

Parallel Workshop Session: Workshop 1.2 Demographic Change Inputs from SeGI ESPON Internal Seminar 2012 Territorial Development Opportunities in Europe and its Neighbourhood Fostering Global Competitiveness

Broadband, internet and skills in ICT are considered important for economic development and social cohesion. A trend of polarisation regarding individuals who have never used a computer within Europe. Differences in accessibility to ICT in different countries and regions. How much an individual can use internet – and the devices needed to access internet – is dependent on contextual aspects such as income distribution, age structure in the population and educational level. Question 1 16 Individuals who have never used a computer, 2009

The objective is to develop the education systems in order to increase European competitiveness. A higher share of early leavers is not good for competitiveness or for social cohesion as it compromises the future of these regions. The regions with the highest share of early school leavers are from the Iberian Peninsula, Turkey, some from Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, U.K., Iceland and Italy. In the wake of the economic crisis starting 2008, the educational system has been subject to budget cut-backs. Children from socially excluded or marginalised households are overrepresented among the early school leavers. Question 1 17 Early school leavers, 2009

Question During the current on-going economic and financial crisis it has become clear that several EU members do not have the financial resource to maintain the present provision of Services of General Interest in general, and especially Social Services of General Interest. Many SGI are critical to the delivery of the modern welfare state. Empirical evidence from the case studies, demonstrates the emergence of such trends in some regions of Europe. 2.In recent decades rural, peripheral, insular, mountainous and outermost areas have in general experienced decreasing accessibility to SGI, while the opposite trends are evident in metropolises and urban agglomerations. The on-going privatisation of SGI will not improve the situation for these disadvantaged regions. 3.The impact on SGI is negative as a consequence of unbalanced population increases, shrinking economies and significant environmental problems – negative driving forces that reinforce each other. Territorial cohesion will be eroded and the risk of promoting closed and protectionist economies are one of the threats that can see an already precarious situation made worse. SGI will be a low priority and impacted very hard as the economic surplus will be too small for large investments in the service sectors despite the huge level of demand. Private actors are hesitant to invest and operate in sparsely populated areas due to low (if any!) profitability. 4.A large share of the population in Europe and in the neighbouring countries with low accessibility, affordability and availability to SGI are found in marginal groups in society.

Question 2 19 The major metropolises and urban agglomerations will experience a positive development of SGI as a consequence of balanced population increases, expanding economies and an absence of major environmental problems. A diversified economic structure will help the economy recover and will be more resilient and less vulnerable to the challenges posed by the new emerging economies. Positive demographic developments will also have a positive impact on the European economy as the shortage of labour, especially with regard to SGI, will not be so acute. An opposite development is seen in rural, peripheral, insular, mountainous and outermost areas. Due to a relatively higher attractiveness of labour situation in fields of SGI in Europe, labour force may continue/intensify to be pulled from neighbourhood countries. For the countries/areas of origin (in Europe and the neighbouring areas) this could create severe shortages in skilled labour in the areas of SGI. Together with international immigration and ageing, demands and needs for SGI will diversify; especially in fields of SSGI (education, health, housing, culture) and related insurances. Migration flows, investment, trade etc. will be directed towards the major metropolises and urban agglomerations, both in Europe as well as in the neighbouring areas. The demand for SGI will be met by the market. Rural, peripheral, insular, mountainous and outermost areas experience an opposite development: people, human capital, investments, trade etc. are leaving. It is a challenge to maintain the present levels of SGI for the governments in these areas as the market finds them unprofitable.

Question 3 20 The policy challenge ahead is not only about solving the financial problems in some EU member countries. An even bigger challenge is found in the attempts at resuscitation of the policy on economic, social and territorial cohesion. Although the financing issue may be solved in the medium-term, the political will of subsidiary and solidarity between the EU members may be more difficult to re-establish. During the current on-going economic and financial crisis it has become clear that several EU members do not have the financial resource to maintain the present provision of Services of General Interest in general, and especially Social Services of General Interest. Many SGI are critical to the delivery of the modern welfare state. If the national governments cannot uphold and guarantee a minimum provision of Social Services of General Interest, who can? This development challenges the notion of a Social Contract in Europe as well as in the neighbouring countries. An opportunity to smoothen the transition and increase integration with the neighbouring regions in especially south-east Europe, the European Union may take efforts to spread its basic idea of social model. Many opportunities are found in relation to environmental sustainability, including carbon neutral cities, energy consumption and transport. These are based upon place based strategies both in the EU as well as in the neighbouring countries. Cooperation around Services of General Economic Interest is a keyword.

Parallel Workshop Session: Workshop 1.2 Demographic Change Pierre Beckouche, ITAN ESPON Internal Seminar 2012 Territorial Development Opportunities in Europe and its Neighbourhood Fostering Global Competitiveness

Population growth Europes neighbourhood influence No divide – thus no pressure – between Espon / and ENRs; rather, a differentiation between Western Europe / central Europe & Eastern Neighbourhoods / Southern Neighbourhoods. Major contrast in the Eastern part, with Turkey as a key point. A lower contrast between Western Europe and Maghreb regions. ENRs are experiencing the territorial evolution that Espon space formely experienced: rapid urbanisation, coastal concentration potential cooperation for planning and regional development

23 Europes neighbourhood influence Dependency ratio A ratio with two very different components: vis-à-vis the younger (high dependency in the Eastern Mediterranean) / and the elder (high dependency in Espon & in Eastern Neighbouring space) The Southern ENCs are experiencing the demographic gift for the coming two decades The demographic structure is converging at high speed between Espon space and its Neighbours Internal contrasts are high within ENCs: e.g. Turkey (West v. East), Algeria (coast v. inland), Morocco (large cities v. rest of country).

24 Europes neighbourhood influence Migration in the Region: a key issue for both Espon space (needs for higher professional mobility) and ENCs (Euro- pean economic & cultural inputs), yet poorly addressed Europe is loosing the battle for attracting the ENCs qualified labour forces. Only 1 out 6 high level Jordanians students enrolled abroad come to Espon. The majority of the high skilled East Mediterranean people living abroad live in Northern America. Except singular countries such as Lebanon, outmigration of skilled people is not a brain drain but win-win. Migrations

25 Opportunities and challenges for Europe Human development HDI: Eastern Neighbours are recovering after the hard 1990s; Mediterranean Neighbours keep on improving. ENCs: disparities decrease vis-à-vis Espon space. Education component: Med ENCs benefit from their long run effort – but need further cooperation for adapting to labour market needs Life expectancy: recovery in the Eastern Neighbourhoods is for Russia only. Many fields of actual & potential cooperation in health issue with Southern Neighbours Income / inhab.: in the South improvement are not sufficient to cope with the employment needs.

Parallel Workshop Session: Workshop 1.2 Demographic Change Petri Kahila, TIPSE ESPON Internal Seminar 2012 Territorial Development Opportunities in Europe and its Neighbourhood Fostering Global Competitiveness

Main Territorial Trends 27 There are differences not only between individual MS but also groupings of MS – especially East- West contrast EU policy documents acknowledge spatial distribution of poverty over ESPON space but indicate only that social phenomena vary over space We have to bear in mind that regions are not excluded but people or groups of people On the other hand, definition of poverty is often biased The Fifth Cohesion Report recognises multidimensional aspects of poverty

There is a clear spatial differentiation of poverty in Europe Poverty is more rural issue the new MS and urban issue in the old MS The close connection between rural and urban poverty is partly related to rural-to-urban migration Main Territorial Trends (2) 28

Developments in Europes Neighbourhood 29 External border regions of the EU generally share common problems in terms of peripherality and questions of their future development as they suffer from low work intensity, unemployment, low economic diversification and out-migration Specially Northern regions of the Eastern border confront challenges of demographic change, sparse population and social exclusion On the other hand, child dependency rate is clearly higher in the neighboring countries like in Turkey

Further Co-operation and Integration 30 Growing importance of co-operation and integration may increase cross- border mobility and thereby allow more employment possibilities in border regions Advanced employment possibilities will create more wealth as people will have access to cross-border labour markets. However, danger might be stronger out-migration from the border regions that might produce difficulties because of fallen economic vitality. These factors have to be taken into consideration in the cohesion policy as they may cause additional cost to the local and regional level compared to the more densely populated areas.

Demographic Questions from ET2050 Andreu Ulied, MCRIT Lead Partner ET2050 Dorota Kupiszewska, OIM, Partner ET2050 ESPON Seminar, Paphos, December 2012

+Stable: 518 (2010) to M. inh. (2030) ? +Aging: 16,2% (2010) to 22% - 24,5% inh.>65 (2030) ? +Singles: 2,3 (2010) to 1,9 - 2,4 people/household (2030) ? +Urbanised: 72,7% (2010) to 78% - 85% (2030) ? Demographic Overall Trends from ET2050

Internal labour migrations (e.g. South/North, East/West…) ? Internal touristical migrations (e.g. education, health, temporary residence, business…) ? External in-migration (e.g. former colonies, North Africa…) ? External e-migration (e.g. labour, education, tourism…) ? Stabilisation (from 518 to and 620 m. inh. in 2050) ?

Inter-generation balance ( e,g later retirement, more flexible working, new jobs; new life-long education…) ? Public finances: Pension and health systems (e.g. public expenditures in latest years of life…) ? New habitat preferences (e,g, from small towns to gated senior communities, new housing, Sun-belt migrants) ? New travel demand (e.g cultural tourism, residencial mobility…) ? Aging (from 16,2% to 24,5%... and 30% in 2050) ?

New type of families ( e.g. Non-married, single-parents, heterosexual…) ? New social institutions (e.g. virtual communities, project and interest- based temporary communities, de-territorialisation of relations…) ? New habitat (e,g, renting, colective facilities… ) ? New travel (e.g. increase in long-distance labour/leisure trips, less communiting and more tele-working…) ? Single-families (from 2.3 to 1,9... and 1,7 in 2050) ?

Patterns of growth: Centers, Suburbs, Periurban and Rururban simoultaneous developments ? Socialy inclusive or more segregated zones (e.g. by rent, by interests and activity, by ethnicity…) ? More specialised or diversified economic zones ? More homogeneous or heterogeneous cities and regions across Europe ? Urbanised (from 72,7% to 85%... and 95% in 2050) ?