WORKSHOP AGIR THE HAGUE FEBRUARY RESULTS FOR BELGIUM – WP1 J. MESTDAGH – M. LAMBRECHT Federal Planning Bureau Economic Analysis & Forecasts

WP1 – Results Belgium TABLE OF CONTENTS Population Mortality Longevity Life courses Morbidity – health HLE - DFLE

Evolution of the population Belgian population, by gender, (31/12) 1948: 4.2 million men and 4.3 million women (8.5) 2000: 5.0 million men and 5.2 million women (10.2) 2050: 5.4 million men and 5.5 million women (10.9)

Population structure by age %25%20% % 29% %22%24% 65+11%17%26%

Average age of population 1948: 34.5 for men and 36 for women 2000: 38 for men and 40 for women 2050: 43.5 for men and 46 for women 2050: 0-19 = 92.5; = 101.8; = 120; 60+ = 266

Number of deaths by age  Shift to the right from 1948 – 2050 : deaths take place at older age (increase life expectancy)

Survivors Survival curves for fictive cohorts (M+W), Shift upwards and to the right in time: more people survive at younger ages and people die later

Survivors (2) Survival curve 2000 and 2050 by gender  Further upward shift to the right  Higher for women than for men

Life expectancy at birth 69,

Life expectancy at age

Life expectancy at

Modal life duration Age at which most deaths take place MenWomen

Median Life duration

Life endurance

Record age

Age at which school ends

Age at household formation

Age parents at childbirth

Age of transition into inactivity among older workers (OECD Definition)

Age at first widowhood

Perceived Health % of population in good or very good health 1997 : Men 82%, women 75% 2001 : Men 79.5%, women 75%

Perceived Health (2) % of population in (very) good health  Decrease in % with age  Men mostly better perceived health than women

Vision impairment % of population without limitations, 2001, by age group  Decreases with age; men better vision than women

Vision impairment Vision impairment by age group and gender and degree, 2001  Limitations + degree increase with age; men have better vision

Deafness % of population without hearing problems, 2001, by age group  Decreases with age; women better than men

Deafness (2) % of population with hearing problems, 2001, by gender and degree  Increase of limitations and degree with age; men worse than women

Mental Health % of population in good mental health, 2001  Difficult to draw conclusions about age  Men seem to have better health except in oldest age group

Mobility handicap % of population without any limitations,  % decreases with age, more limitations for elderly  % lower for women than for men  Older age groups : lower % in 2001 than 1997 (worse!)

Mobility handicap (2) MenWomen HouseChairBedHouseChairBed

Healthy Life Expectancy LE and HLE, Men, 2001  Gap LE – HLE decreases with age (13 years at age 15, 3 years at age 85)

Healthy Life Expectancy (2) LE and HLE, Women, 2001  Gap LE – HLE decreases with age (18 years at age 15, 3.6 years at age 85)

Healthy Life Expectancy (3) Percentage of years in good health in total LE (or : HLE / LE *100)  Decrease with age: elderly people can expect to spend bigger part of remaining years in bad health  Higher for men than for women (except oldest age group) age

HLE compression / expansion MenWomen

Disability Free LE LE and DFLE, MEN, 2001  DFLE decreases with age, gaps narrows with age

Disability Free LE (2) LE and DFLE, women, 2001  Decrease with age, gap narrows with age

Disability Free LE (3) Percentage of years without disability in LE (or DFLE / LE *100) Decrease with age  Similar for men and women, except higher age groups (despite higher LE for women)

DFLE: compression / expansion AgeMenWomen